Events / Graham Cunningham / 27 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dubai in the spring has many charms. The climate is perfect for visiting Europeans, the welcome is always hospitable and the standard of racing on offer at the Dubai World Cup meeting is mighty impressive. But there is one crucial thing you cannot do in Dubai - strike a sporting wager. Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham is happy to be on home soil as he pinpoints a posse of potential angles on the first flagship weekend of the Flat season.

Forget Euro loyalty as the stars come out in the desert

The renowned 18th century author Samuel Johnson was the man who said that patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. And, had the good doctor addressed the subject, he might also have added that patriotism can be perilous for those of a punting persuasion.

Take this weekend's fabulously wealthy World Cup meeting in Dubai. Thousands of British and European punters will be rooting for the horses they are most familiar with and many will back their sentiments with hard cash.

Sadly, I fear this is one occasion when the patriotism will be misplaced.

Happily, Betfair punters willing to put parochial interests to one side have the chance to profit from such loyalty by opposing a trio of high-profile British and French raiders at Nad Al Sheba this Saturday.

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Marchand looks set to struggle against the proven dirt warriors

First up is French raider Marchand' D'Or, who bids to transfer his high-class turf form to the very different discipline of dirt sprinting in the Golden Shaheen at 2.55.

Granted, Freddie Head's grey gelding proved much too good for most of Europe's best five and six furlong horses in 2008 and his handler has been bigging him up as "a real superhorse" this week.

But, as the excellent Lloyd Grossman used to say on Through The Keyhole, let's look at the evidence.

Marchand D'Or recorded one of the worst figures of his career when well held in this race two years ago and faces a clutch of proven dirt speed horses, headed by the champion American filly Indian Blessing and backed up strongly by the local heroes Big City Man and Diabolical.

And what do you make of Head's other quotes? Little Freddie's contention that Marchand' D'Or should handle the track just because he works on sand all the time at home hardly inspires maximum confidence.

And his suggestion that Marchand' D'Or "doesn't like to be in the middle of horses being pushed and squeezed" is positively alarming given that dirt sprinting at the highest level tends to be all about fighting for a good position then grinding out relentless fractions at close quarters.

In short, there is a good chance Marchand D'Or will be dropped out with plenty to do here. And if that's the case, those who lay him for a place at anything under [3.0] will have a very good chance of collecting indeed.


Draw and distance mean Paco is unikely to be the Boy

Richard Hannon has never been a man to hide his feelings and the fact that he said he was "tempted to get on the next plane home" after his stable star Paco Boy drew stall 13 in the Dubai Duty Free was very telling indeed.

Good horses can overcome high draws on the round course at Nad Al Sheba - and the freewheeling Jay Peg did exactly that from stall 14 in this race 12 months ago - but Paco Boy has more serious obstacles to overcome this time around.

First, he's a confirmed holdup performer and Richard Hughes will face no easy task in getting him settled then ensuring he misses trouble in what could be a rough race.

Second, Paco Boy's form claims are no better than those of a clutch of proven international Group 1 performers including Archipenko, Vodka and Godolphin's expensive German recruit Lady Marian.

And third, Paco Boy has shown his very best form over seven furlongs and gives the impression that a strong test over nine such as this will test his stamina severely.

I doubt that Hannon did jump on that next plane back to Blighty. And I also doubt that anyone who lays Paco Boy in the place market at [2.9] or less will have cause to regret their decision.


Traffic problems the threat to Youmzain's latest Dubai dabble

Timeform's handicappers have him clear top rated and his trainer and rider are adamant that his preparation has gone without a hitch.

Even the rain has come to make conditions just about perfect for Youmzain in the Sheema Classic at 4.40, so why do I suspect that Mick Channon's stable star will find one too good in this $5m contest?

In short, I fear trouble in-running for a horse who has been best supporting actor in two Arcs but is still awaiting the success he needs in a top international prize to give him widespread appeal as a major stallion prospect.

This is Youmzain's third crack at the Sheema Classic. He finished fast for third having been dropped out well in rear by Richard Hughes two years ago.

Hughes employed more positive tactics when Youmzain faded into fifth last year, but it looks as though his new rider Richard Hills is planning to return to the last gasp strategy based on his quotes in the Racing Post this week.

"Everyone knows he's a horse who likes to find trouble," said Hills. "So my job will be to get him in a pocket and then make sure I get out of it in the straight."

I don't know whether that comment concerns you, but it certainly concerns me. Granted, Youmzain's second to the mighty Zarkava at Longchamp last October is the standout piece of form on offer, but this tends to be a race where a big field races two by two around the home turn with the result that the holdup horses end up well back.

Getting into a pocket is one thing. Getting out of it is quite another and Youmzain is worth a small lay in the win market in a race where the globetrotting French raider Doctor Dino looks sure to make his presence felt.


Spare a thought for stricken O'Connor amid the blaze of action

There is nothing like news of a serious head injury to a jockey to put your own miserable little grumbles in perspective.

Sadly, the popular Irish jump jockey Matt O'Connor is the latest to fall victim to the inherent risks of his job and a heavy fall at Thurles on Thursday has left him critically ill in a medically induced coma at Cork's University Hospital.

Spring is always a time for optimism and, with the Flat season moving up several gears and the National looming large, this is a time of year that followers of both codes look forward to with relish.

But the fact remains that this game can exact a chillingly heavy price from those who do the steering.

Good luck to Matt O'Connor. And good luck to you whether your punting is targeted in Europe or the Middle East this weekend.

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