Events / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 October 2009 / Leave a comment

It's Champions Day at Newmarket this afternoon! The Dewhurst Stakes and the Champion Stakes itself provide the Group-class lustre while the 34-runner Cesarewitch gives backers and layers the chance to go to punting war. 'The Riddler' is still in the hotseat at HQ bringing you all the latest news, rumours and market-moves. Get in touch by e-mailing: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5.25pm result:
1: Akmal
2: Neeham
3: Above Average
What a heroic run from Akmal, the ultimate back-to-lay horse! his giant white face bobbing through the Newmarket darkness was a wonder to behold. Jockey Richard Hills set a very even tempo and from about four furlongs out you could see he was never going to be beaten. It was so obvious that the horse never traded at anything above [4.20], which is extraordinary.

Hills was so pleased with himself at his exceptional ride that he stood up in his stirrups as he crossed the line and saluted he crowd. It may have had something to do with the fact that Neeham was second, and the pair provided his patron, Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoun, with something to cheer about.

Well team, that's the Flat season over as far as the blog is concerned. We'll go into a brief hibernation, during which time the entire jump racing form book will be digested. Then it'll be on to Cheltenham for the Open meeting next month. Goodby and good night.

5.20pm
Henry Cecil is quite possibly the most popular trainer around. The crowd were ecstatic when Tom Queally came into the winners' enclosure aboard Twice Over after the pair had teamed up to win the Champion Stakes.

Queally, who was winning his third Group 1 of the season after scooping the Golden Jubilee on Art Connoisseur and Fleeting Spirit in the July Cup, understood the special relationship that Cecil shares with punters. He said: "There is something special riding a big winner for Henry - I could hear the cheers as I was coming in."

"Twice Over hasn't got home in some of his races but we can't doubt what he's done here," he added.

Cecil showed why he is so popular when commenting on the objection lodged by Richard Hills that lead to the Stewards' inquiry. "I wouldn't have objected," said the ten-times champion trainer with his customrary reticence. "I'm a sportsman."

Cecil found time to think of others, too, in his moment of victory. "It's lovely for Prince Abdullah - he's a very supportive man and he's been very loyal to me. Jane, my wife, is not here today, but if I didn't have her, I wouldn't be here."

Good old Henry.

4.50pm result:
1: Ashalanda
2: Crystal Capella
3: Saphira's Fire
Ryan Moore gets mugged on the line by Christophe Lemaire. I don't think there could be more disappointed people here. When Moore went clear a huge cheer went up from the crowd. Punters thought he had won as well, and Crystal Capella was matched in-running at as short as [1.2]. I thought it would have been shorter, as Lemaire timed his challenge to perfection, only getting up in the dying strides.

4.43pm
Crystal Cappella was called the best filly in Europe by Ryan Moore. He was only jesting, and was of course referring to his mount's victory over Dar Re Mi earlier in the season. Crystal Capella found life very difficult at Longchamp 13 days ago when finishing fifth in the L'Opera.

"She was desperately unlucky in-running at Longchamp" said Moore. "She was a bit keen and she didn't like running down the hill at all. She hung right and I never really got her back on an even keel for the rest of the race. It's fair to say we are on a bit of a recovery mission here, but she's the best in the race."

Having seen the likes of Ghanaati and Fame And Glory bomb out here over the past few weeks, I'm going for a fresher filly. Step forward Baila Me.

The Godolphin charge has a Group 1 victory to her name, and with lines through various horses such as King Of Rome, and Poseidon Adventure, she hasn't got to find too much. She's an attractive price, too. Alright, I am getting desperate.

4.15pm result:
1: Music Show
2: Atasari
3: Tabassum
Once again, Fallon shows that it takes him a long time to get going. The former champ is a stoker, and Music Show loomed as the field hit the rising ground. But although she seemed held, Fallon kept on at her and the pair eventually pulled clear of both Atasari and Tabassum.

It was another big-priced winner - 25-1 with the on-course layers.

Watch out Mawatheeq in next year's big 1m4f races. The Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned colt was reeling in Twice over in the closing stages of the Champion Stakes, but couldn't quite get there. Jockey Richard Hills lodged an objection on the basis that Tom Queally had taken his ground, but it was to no avail.

Trainer Marcus Tregoning, who felt before the race that his horse would be aided by his light-campaign, was slightly aggrieved that his charge didn't go one better.

"I am a fraction disappointed as I thought he would win," said Tregoning, who won the Champion in 2001 with Nayef. "Having said that, he has run a cracking race," he added. "He got a bit outpaced and maybe wasn't suited by the undulating course. I think he may be better over 12 furlongs. He was finishing best of all, but the winner had flown by then. He stays in training next year."

A similar sentiment was shared by Michael Bell, trainer of Sariska. "I am chuffed to bits as today wasn't her trip or her ground. She is best with some give in the ground and over 12 furlongs as her victory in the Irish Oaks showed.

"I think next year when she races back over 12 furlongs on her ground, she will be hard to beat.. We will look at races like the Coronation Cup and the King George."

Good luck finding soft ground in June and July Mr Bell...

3.40pm result - the Cesarewitch
1: Darley Sun
2: Mamlook
3: Sereth
4: Dayia
5: Ajaan
6: Gordonsville
Well that was pretty easy wasn't it? Darley Sun halts the dream run of the layers in emphatic style. Those stats men must be wrenching their spreadsheets - that 's the 16th three-year-old to win since 1945 by the way chaps!

Jockey Andrea Atzeni was always in a good position, so much so that his mount never traded at anything above [9.0] in-running.
Atzeni got a dream run up the far side rail to reach the leaders inside the final quarter of a mile, and when the pair came off the rail to challenge, there was only ever going to be one winner.

The punt on Sereth was derailed, but you've got to applaud trainer Barney Curley, if you like that sort of thing. It was a bold gamble, but his team was beaten by an extremely capable and well-handicapped horse.

3.40pm
Jockey Martin Lane has just run virtually the entire dog leg of Newmarket, which for those of you who don't know the track well, is about a mile. By my reckoning, he did it in about six minutes. He was thrown off Tilt, and ran alongside the horse. So he won't be winning then.

Clive Cox, trainer of Xtension, was happy with his colt's agonising defeat in the Dewhurst Stakes earlier today. Cox's colt looked the winner in the closing stages, and was matched at as low as [1.31] in-running, only to be reeled ion and beaten by Beethoven and Fencing Master by a neck and a nose.

"Obviously I would like to have won, but Xtension has run a great race in defeat and I'm happy."

Cox was looking forward to next year, and was satisfied that the colt would stay the 1m of the Guineas. "He has always given the impression that he stays well, and so it has been proved today," he continued. "He just takes time to warm up in his races and he will be better the further he goes. He has not had a rigorous campaign and he fills me with excitement. He will be targeted for the Guineas."

Hold on before you back Beethoven for anything next year. Aidan O'Brien is eyeing up a tilt at Santa Anita for his Dewhurst winner. O'Brien reckons that the Juvenile, which is staged on turf, or even the pro-ride option would be possible.

It was the Oratorio colt's tenth run of the season, and he wore a visor for the first time, which indicates he isn't the most straight-forward. Remember, he was overlooked by stable jockey Jonny Murtagh, with Ryan Moore taking the ride.

"Beethoven has been progressing all the time," said O'Brien. "His form figures might not suggest it, but he's like his father, progressive, progressive, progressive," he continued, sporting his Ballydoyle Mac once more.

It appears that Joseph O'Brien suggested the visor for Beethoven. O'Brien's son offered his father the advice during the week when he rode him. It seems Joseph is also like his father then - shrewd, shrewd, shrewd.

3.30pm
With so many skinners here both yesterday and today, it's probably worth having a look down the betting for a few with a chance at big prices in the Cesarewitch.

Of those priced over 20-1 on Betfair, it is interesting to see that the Seagull's ante-post tip in his Pricewise column for the big handicap is on the drift. Well's Lyrical is out to [34.0]. Bryan Smart is better-known for training sprinters, but his four-year-old finished second in the Northumberland Plate and then third a week later. He was given a break and then prepped for this over an inadequate 1m5f when finishing sixth 16 days ago. It looks a good prep, and he may be worth a look in the place market.

As might Silk Affair. There was over £1,000 matched on Silk Affair at [50.0], which is interesting for a horse that hasn't raced for 323 days on the flat and 220 over jumps.

The other one for longshot punters is Viper. The Hollinshead yard have tried to slip under the radar with the extremely lighty-raced seven-year-old. He showed a decent level of form when winning over 2m here last season.

Layers have been in clover so far, and they are already ahead in this race. Darley Sun went out to as big as [9.0], but has now gone back down to [7.4]. There's all to play for here.

3.25pm
Unsurprisingly, the Stewards have thrown out the objection and the placings remain unaltered.

There's prize for the best-dressed couple here on course. It's a preening, disgraceful competition. It has been kindly offered though, by the Jumeirah Group and the winners get a magnificent week in the only 7* hotel in the world out in Dubai, complete with business-class flights.

Surely if you can afford to buy the best clothes that are on display here, you wouldn't need to win the big prize. Perhaps it might have been better to find the worst-dressed couple, and chuck in £1,000 each to get them decent clothes when they went on their magical trip to Dubai?

3pm result - Champion Stakes
1: Twice Over
2: Muwatheeq
3: Sariska
Henry Cecil wins his first Champion Stakes since Bosra Sham shone so brightly in 1996. There was the familiar 'good old Henry' uttered by about half the Grandstand within a minute of Twice Over crossing the line.

Twice Over settled in midfield behind Fame And Glory and City Leader. As they came out of the Dip, Fame And glory started to falter. By the time the field reached the two-furlong pole, Twice Over had hit the front, and it was all over as he galloped all the way to the line. Sariska put in a brave effort in the middle of the track, while Muwatheeq speed through for second.

Richard Hills has just lodged an appeal against Twice Over. A Stewards' inquiry will follow.

2.55pm
Sariska was voted the best turned out in the paddock. The punters don't seem to give her a chace though, as she's a big drifter.

2.53pm"
Fancy the champion two-year-old colt in Europe being called after a dog," writes in Norman. What that pooch in the film of the same name? There was I thinking he was named after the great composer.

Can Fame And Glory win this? After his stablemates dominated the Dewhurst, you'd have thought there was a fair chance. His stable lad seemed to think so, too. He pointed at his horse, and said, "the winner." He then pointed at Set Sail and said, "second." I think he's got delusions of grandeur.

The French horse Never On Sunday has been well backed on course. Jean-Claude Rouget galloped him at Sir Mark Prescott's yard earlier in the week, which is exactly the same routine he used when sending over Literato to win here in 2007. The French have a good record in this. It is their most successful British Group 1 with 21 wins since 1945.

As far as John Gosden is concerned, there shouldn't be anything between his two, Pipedreamer and Virtual. "Pipedreamer didn't come out of the Brigadier Gerard at all well, so it wasn't out of choice that we didn't run him again until Longchamp," he said.

"Aidan O'Brien has two in the race, but they don't always chase the pacemakers though do they? We'll see how efficient they are.

"I've specifically trained Virtual for this race and Jimmy Fortune has won a Lockinge on him so knows him well.

"Personally, I wouldn't have anything between Pipedreamer and Virtual in the betting, but the market is a law unto itself."

2.25pm result - Dewhurst Stakes
1: Beethoven
2: Fencing Master
3: Xtension
Steinbeck did indeed operate as the perfect back-to-lay vehicle. Johnny Murtagh grabbed the rail immediately and flew, but as they met the rising ground he looked to be floundering out front. Steinbeck's odds went down to [1.56], but I had bitten off more than I could chew. As I laid off Steinbeck, I didn't have the dextrous fingers required to lay off Xtesion, who looked to me like he had made a bold bid for the race. Clive Cox's colt traded at as low as [1.31], before he was swamped by Beethoven (matched at [160.0] and Fencing Master to line up a glorious big-priced 1-2 for Aidan O'Brien. Do you think he had the forecast?

2.20pm
Multiple German Listed winner Sereth has been heavily backed over the last few days for the Cambridgeshire. Barney Curley's multiple Listed winner was 50-1 on Tuesday with one high street layer.

On Betfair's fresh market Sereth opened at [23.0], and is now down to [18.0], so the money is down. Under Curley's guidance, the horse has dropped an astonishing 18lbs. You don't need much more of a hint do you?

"Steinbeck is drawn on the stand's side rail," points out our old friend Derek. "He has show good early speed when he debuted at Naas. He looks a shout for a back-to-lay."

The stalls are located on the stands side today, so Murtagh will have every chance of grabbing that all-important rail. It's a decent point, Derek.

2.15pm
With a victory in the pocket, the layers are out to get Chabal, who looks friendless. The way that Cuis Ghaire ran in the first doesn't bode well, either. He's trading at [5.4] as a I write.

If you are looking for clues from the first, Arabian Gleam's trainer Jeremy Noseda runs Awesome Act. The stable apparently think a lot of it, and the horse has come in since the photographer sitting next to me backed it at [22.0] earlier this moring. He only seems to back things from that stable.

Jimmy Fortune doesn't ride High Twelve because the horse's owner, Thomas Barr, wanted Kieren Fallon in the plate. It didn't seem to be something that trainer John Gosden seemed that happy with.

"Keiren Fallon has never seen the horse," said Gosden. "I know I don't have a retained rider, but when the owner pays the fees and that's what he wants, that's what he gets."
High Twelve showed a marked temperament failure last time when bombing out at Ascot so perhaps Fallon is exactly what the horse needs.

"I've backed Xtension," writes Alan. "His arced run around the field at Goodwood showed he really stays the trip. He beat Mata Keranjang, who is a solid yardstick, and if trained by anyone else, he'd be a lot shorter."

I certainly wouldn't put you off Alan. With the hyped-up and well-backed Steinbeck also lurking in the field, and Marcus's fancy Silver Grecian also a significant danger, Chabal really looks to have a lot on his plate.

1.50pm result:
1: Arabian Gleam
2: Ouqba
3: Donativum
Time: 1.23.81
A stunning victory for the layers in the opener. Ashram was heavily punted close to the off, as was Main Aim, and Cuis Ghaire was backed throughout the day. As a result, Arabian Gleam was a drifter. There was no mistaking his chances when they came to the bushes though, as Cuis Ghaire and then Ashram both came under heavy pressure.

A complete skinner, which has been a theme here all meeting. Maashooq was third in the opener yesterday at 25-1 and Fair Trade followed that in the next at 40-1 when runner up. Pachattack was the bridesmaid in the Listed Fillies contest at 33-1, too and both Steele Tango and Esoterica won at 25-1. Watch out favourite backers, you could be in for a torrid time!

Arabian Gleam won in 0.41secs outside standard, which either means it was a slowly run race, or Michael Prosser's assessment of good, good to firm is spot on.

1.30pm
One of the Middle Eastern racing writers has been having lunch with the Emirates crowd, who sponsor today's big race. There are some interesting jockey bookings this afternoon on Godolphin's horses. The UAE rider Ahmed Ajtebi doesn't get a look in on any of the Godolphin trio in the first. Richard Hughes is on Asset, Ted Durcan is on Donativum and Frankie Dettori is on Ashram. And yet, in the Jockey Club Cup, Ajtebi takes the mount on Urban Poet, while Dettori rides for Andy Turnell.

Apparently, so the story goes, Saeed Bin Suroor can't watch the whole of his huge string. Ajtebi therefore rides those horses under the guidance of a subordinate trainer, which is why he is on Urban Poet. Whatever the outcome, the fancied UAE runners today, according to this scribe, are Urban Poet, Baila Me in the Pride Stakes at 4.50pm and Buzzword is taken to bounced back in the Dewhurst.

1.20pm
Ashram's record is deceptively good. The favourite for the curtain-raiser, the 1.50pm, has finished out of the frame only once over seven furlongs, and only once on Good to Firm. He likes a straight seven furlongs, too, and he won his latest start in a Listed contest with ease.

It's easy to see why he is favourite, but realistically, why isn't Cuis Ghaire? Jim Bolger's filly has pushed both Rip Van Winkle and Ghanaati close on Good to Firm, flopping only when she was raced on Heavy, and both times behind Again.

Her run behind RVW last year was particularly impressive because it was off levels. Now that all took place a long time ago, but Bolger wouldn't be running her if she wasn't ready, it's the end of the domestic season after all. At her best, she's murder this field, and she could easily start favourite. she's been heavily backed both on Betfair, and with the high street layers.

Main Aim had his confidence dented when bumped in the July Cup, and the champion jockey revealed that things were more serious than first appeared. "Main Aim was bumped badly during that race, and when we looked at the replay he twisted his leg very badly, which seemed to stay with him. He's also had a few problems since then, and we probably ran him too soon when he was eighth at Goodwood."

Sir Michael Stoute also revealed that the colt had ulcers at Haydock, so it is fair to say he's had a rough time, but Moore has been told by his lads that all is well. Sounds little bit too third party information to me...

1pm:
If we keep with our statistical theme here, what price would hot-favourite Chabal be if his trainer Jim Bolger hadn't won the last three runnings of the Dewhurst? Coral's James Knight reckons he would be a 4-1 shot in today's Racing Post, which Chabal could easily be by 2.25pm this afternoon. He's a marked drifter. Chabal was matched at [2.8] early on, and is now out to [4.3].

12.45pm
I must apologise. Marcus e-mailed in yesterday with a witty aside that Phidippides was a non-runner. Having emptied my Betfair account yesterday on various poor wagers, I had a very short fuse and gave him short shrift. He must have a thick skin because he has written in once more. Once again, he keeps to the classical theme: "I think Silver Grecian is good value in the 2.25pm, and it's not because it's a classical name. If he was from Aidan O'Brien's yard, he'd be favourite. That run at Doncaster was good enough as he was giving 3lbs away."

Silver Grecian's trainer John Ryan spoke at a press conference here yesterday. He basically admitted that Silver Grecian was undercooked for his Donnie assignment, and that this had been the plan all along. "Since his last serious workout at the weekend, I can honestly say he's never been better," he added confidently.

12.20pm
Sticking with the theme of statistics, Fame and Glory's chances in the Champion Stakes have been similarly hog-washed by some pundits using stats.

The trends man in the Racing Post, Craig Thake , highlights that only Pride, Pilsudski and In The Groove have come from Longchamp to win the big Newmarket Group 1 in the last 20 years. Pride and Pilsudski? What great horses they were! If you look at the Racing Post's trends box on the Champion Stakes, you will see that Pride had the highest RPR out of the ten winners since 1999. It takes an exceptional animal to come from Longchamp and win here, which Fame And Glory undoubtedly is.

To be fair to Thake, he's not as old as the another of the RP's stable of tipster's, Gerald Delamere. Delamere highlights that between 1973 and 2006, horses that finished 06337922 in the Arc bounced back to win the Champion Stakes.

Food for thought. I'm off to lunch.

Midday
Benjamin Disraeli's famous line about there being three kinds of lies: 'lies, damn, lies and statistics' seems particularly apt when you delve into this afternoon's Cesarewitch.

You can prove whatever you want with them. Take the chances of long-time favourite, Darley Sun. His form is exceptional, and his second to Askar Thau in the Doncaster Cup means that he is almost a stone well in. He is the highest-rated horse in the field by miles on RPR ratings, and our friends at Timeform have him six clear on their ratings system.

And yet, he can't win, apparently. He's raced too many times this season because eight of the last ten winners had raced no more than ten times in their victorious season. He's trained in Newmarket, which hasn't produced a winner of this race since 1987. And the one that most stats freaks use the most is that he's too young, because only Spirit of Love in 1998 and Trainglot in 1990 have won for the Classic generation in almost 20 years.

Where's the perspective! If you go back to 1945, four-year-olds have 20 winners to their names, followed by three-year-olds with 15 successes. It's five-year-olds next with 12 and so on. Askar Thau couldn't win last year off 8st 12lbs as a three-year-old, but Darley Sun gets in on 8st 9lbs. So in summary, if you fancy Darley Sun, don't be put off.

If you really want to profile the race statistically, you've got to go and look at the 24 three-year-olds that haven't even placed in this race over the last decade and see if any of them were rated as good as Darley Sun on any scale. Only then can you say with a degree of confidence, that Darley Sun won't be good enough.

If you were here yesterday, we spoke to David Simcock, Darley Sun's trainer. If anything, he's scared most about Darley Sun's lack of experience in big-field handicaps. So far, the largest field he has run in was on his debut, when he faced 11 other rivals. A field of 34 runners is a significant issue, therefore. He's drawn well in berth 25.

11.45am
Good morning everyone and welcome to what promises to be a thrilling Champions Day at Newmarket. The weather hasn't played ball and we are looking at a blanket of grey cloud. Any of you who tuned in yesterday will know that numerous people felt it necessary to wear coats, and it's equally chilly here today.

Clerk of the course Michael Prosser has unveiled with much fanfare a fresh 20m strip of turf on the home straight that has remained unused since the Guineas meeting in May. With a lot of wind yesterday, the going is now Good, Good To Firm in places. Some of the old school cameramen who have walked the course reckon the going is Good To Firm, although the GoingStick on the straight course is officially 8.0. The dog leg used for the Cesarewitch (3.40pm), Pride Stakes (4.50pm), and the Jockey Club Cup (5.25pm) is 8.3. We shall see in the first race, which is due off at 1.50pm.

Tags: Cesarewitch Handicap, Geoffrey Riddle live racing blog, Horseracing betting, horseracing betting odds, horseracing betting tips