Events / Geoffrey Riddle / 12 May 2010 /

Geoffrey Riddle is stationed at the Knavesmire to bring you the latest betting news and updates from the first day of York's late spring meeting. Email him your questions and queries, banter and nuggets on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com or leave a comment at the bottom.

4.55pm result:
1: Arlequin
2: Rigidity
3: Contract Caterer
Once again, the horse that flies into the lead in the final furlong just demands to be laid in-running. Eddie Ahern, who was so successful earlier on Aviate, took the lead inside the final furlong. In-running traders are beginning to cotton on, because the Henry Cecil-trained colt was matched at [1.12], whereas other horses in similar positions today have gone much shorter.

Arlequin, who was Philip Robinson's seventh winner in the last 14 days, was an obliging partner and they stuck on well to finish just clear. The winner was matched at [45.0] for just over £50 in-running.

It was odd to see that Think Its All Over drifted immediately before the off, starting the race at [9.4], but it was easy to see why because Jamie Spencer was whacking away with three furlongs to race.

Well betting.betfair team, thanks for reading today. Come back at 11am tomorrow for day two of York's spring meeting. There's a whole host of attractions tomorrow, not least Sariska's clash with Midday, which currently stands at 2-0 in Sariska's favour. There's also the Dante, which pits Chabal against the highly-touted/over-hyped Workforce, however you see the race.

See you then.

4.50pm
"Do you know why Spencer's ride is called Think Its All Over?" writes in Alex.
I hadn't really thought about it to be honest, but sharp-eyed Alex seems to have all the answers. "Look at the sire. Tiznow. T'is now! Gehddit?"

4.40pm
Ryan Moore has been out of the placings just once this afternoon, which is why his mount in the last has probably been heavily backed. The champion jockey gets the leg up on Sir Michael Stoute's Official Style, which has been backed from [5.6] into [3.3].

But it is the gamble on Think Its All Over that looks the more interesting. Jamie Spencer rides, and the Irishman has won this race twice, and has been placed twice from just four rides in the last ten years. Spencer has got a decent strike rate on the Knavesmire in general, too, with a 15% score since 2006.

Think Its All Over was matched for £20 at [12.5] earlier, but having seen almost £50k matched on the Tom Tate runner, the price now stands at [6.8]. Tate trains locally near Tadcaster and he seems quite keen on his son of Tiznow.

"He's a big tall horse who won his second start at Hamilton over a mile," said Tate. "He has done well physically from two to three and I think he is a lovely horse. Fast ground suits him and I don't think he will have a problem staying ten furlongs this year."

4.20pm result:
1: Bahceli
2: Cocktail Charlie
Cocktail Charlie looked to have flown the field two furlongs out, but the lessons of today have been painful for some, and those in front 100 yards out have been continually chinned.

Bahcelli, who was the most expensive colt in the line up at £48k, looked done for pace, but champion jockey Ryan Moore kept stoking away. Matched for £80 at [110], it was then that Moore moved and he got there on the line.

The time was 2.95second slower than standard.

4pm
There's currently no money in the Dante Stakes on Betfair at the moment. Only £6k has been matched, and backers have no facility with the market at over 200%. But given the performances of the Aidan O'Brien runners this afternoon, you'd have to be a brave punter to back the Irishman's Cape Blanco.

With the regular layers, the best price you can get is 4-1, which given that Chabal, Coordinated Cut, Circumvent and Fair Trade have all proved their well being this season, is mighty short for a six runner affair. With only two spots up for grabs in place market, Cape Blanco looks a lay, particularly if you can suck the punters in at an advantageous price.

3.45pm result:
1: Deauville Flyer
2: The Fonz
3: Persian Peril
The former champion shows the reigning champion how it is done. Keiren Fallon put in a power-packed performance there, stoking up Deauville Flyer to collar long-time leader The Fonz at the line by a short head.

Given the fate of front-runners on the Knavesmire this afternoon it is a wonder that The Fonz traded so short in-running and there was over £5k matched at [1.03] on the favourite. I managed to get [1.2], but it continually astounds me how punters get these mythical short prices. I must get quicker at this game!

The big gamble on Ian Williams's Cuain Alainn went astray, with the horse being matched at odds-on for a place.

3.40pm
James Eustace has just told Racing UK that his Geneva Geyser is unlikely to force the pace today.

3.35pm
The clouds still clog up the sky here, but somehow, the weather has dried out the turf. Clerk of the course William Derby now makes the course good to firm all over.

3.30pm
Amazing to think that there are two horses in the 3.45pm who ran at the Cheltenham festival. Blue Nymph ran in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing 13th of 17, while Silk Hall contested the Coral Cup. When you consider that Mannlichen contested races on the snow in the ski resort of St Moritz you get the impression that this is not the easiest race to decipher.

What's more, there doesn't seem to be much pace in this race. Geneva Geyser would be fancied to make all under Micky Fenton, but James Eustace's four-year-old tailed off horribly last season, and probably can't be trusted even as a back-to-lay vehicle. Veloso would be of interest to lead under Freddie Tylicki, but all the winners have come from the pack today, so in-running traders should really consider a laying Tylicki's mount in the final 100 yards.

I fancied Incendo earlier today, but James Fanshawe's gelding has been a massive drifter. Hayley turner's mount trades at [13.0], but has been matched at as short as [10.0] for three-figure bets. In contrast, Cuain Alainn has been hammered. Ian Williams' chance was matched at just under [40.0], but now trades at [10.0].

3.10pm result: The Duke Of York Stakes
1: Prime Defender
2: Showcasing
3: Main Aim
Commentator Simon Holt made the understatement of the day there, saying that "Prime Defender has caused a little bit of an upset."

Matched at [50.0] for £2 in-running, he could be picked as the winner a long-way out, with only the late-rattle of Showcasing posing any potential hiccups in the final few yards.

Main Aim looked a picture in the paddock, but stayed on, which probably indicates that he now needs further, while the malaise of the Aidan O'Brien stable continues. Would you back Cape Blanco in the Dante Stakes tomorrow?

3.05pm
Jonathan, a regular e-mailer, has backed Mullionmileanhour in the Duke Of York Stakes, up next.

"He ran a close second to Equiano last time out. He lost by a neck. Equiano won the Kings Stand Stakes a few years ago, which is better form than anything on offer today. Starspangledbanner won't be ready, or fit, did you see Cabaret run in the Musidora? Main Aim is rubbish and overrated, and Showcasing will take time to come to himself. [9.0] looks a gift."

James is in between a rock and a hard place. "I got matched on Aviate at [20.0] in-running, but I've just seen that some poor layer was matched for £74 at [130.0]. Imagine!"

Steady James. Some of us just wish they had backed Aviate at all.

3pm
Winning trainer Henry Cecil was wonderfully understated in the winners' enclosure. No fancy ties, and even his shirt was a sort of blue that you wouldn't usually associate with a confirmed dandy of the turf. Perhaps he doesn't dress up in the north. Anyway, Cecil was obviously delighted at the performance of Aviate in the Musidora, and was quick to give jockey Eddie Ahern the plaudits.
"He did really well to get through, didn't he?", Cecil beamed. "You couldn't really see how good she is, because she didn't get a run. They should have spread out and let her come through. We'd have seen then how good she was!"

Cecil was only 'hopeful' that the filly would stay, but the hint that he truly believed in her was all in the entries. "I was hopeful that she would stay, and if I didn't, I would have entered her in the mile race later in the week. I'd imagine all of the Oaks will be in consideration now."

2.40pm result - Musidora Stakes
1: Aviate
2: Gold Bubbles
3: Eleanora Duse
Aviate, who was last in the stalls, screeched home in the final 100 yards under a magnificently timed run from Eddie Ahern. Trapped up the home straight behind Cabaret and Eleanora Duse and again in the closing stages, Ahern sat patiently and when the gap arrived on the rail, Ahern angled her through.

Eleanora Duse and Jim Bolger's Gold Bubbles looked to have already flown, but a little push and Aviate flew to the finish to earn 8-1 quotes for the Oaks. Victor Chandler went 14-1, but that's unlikely to last.

2.35pm
Michael has gone for a real outsider. "Pink Symphony should run well," he writes. "Her time at Newbury on her latest run was just 0.18secs slower than Gertrude Bell, who won so impressively at Chester last week. The fillies race she won last time out has proved to be a springboard of talent in the past including Eswarah, who won the Oaks in 2005 and Islington, who won four Group 1s in her time."

Paul Cole reckons she's got a fair old chance as well, Michael. The former champion trainer said: "Pink Symphony has come on from Newbury. She has been working really well but it will be hot contest. We expect her to run nicely."

Cole, who trains at Whatcombe, had entered Pink Symphony in the Fillies Trial Stakes on Friday at Newbury, which is just down the road to his training base. That race is also over 1m2f, so he must feel that his Montjeu filly will stay the distance.

2.30pm
Carrying on from that, Sir Michael Stoute's fily Eleanora Duse is still steady at [9.8], but Henry Cecil's Aviate is the real story of the day, drifting from an early price of [2.72], right out to a current price of [3.55]. Remember Stoute's and Peter Reynold's comments earlier about The Duse, though.

I think I'm going in on Cabaret. Aidan O'Brien's charge has already achieved a Racing Post Ratings figure equal to that of Passage Of Time, Short Skirt and Kalypso Katie when they won the Musidora, suggesting that if she is not too far behind in her work at Ballydoyle she would rate a massive chance.

The Ballydoyle maestro said: "She's a lovely Galileo filly. Listen, she moves well, and we think she'll stay. If she runs well we'll think about stepping her up in trip."

I'm never sure whether I like Aidan O'Brien telling everyone to 'listen'. I know you have to listen, because not only is he one of the most successful trainers of all time, but he also is very softly-spoken, but it's still slightly grating.

Still, it could be worse. He could be shouting all over the place like that loony Adam Boulton from Sky News. His interview technique is appalling. Did you see him interviewing Alistair Campbell the other day? Unbelievable. Can you imagine if I did that to Aidan O'Brien?

2.25pm
The Musidora doesn't always take a lot of winning, as the victories of Cassis and Secret History testify. Cassis won in 2003, and Secret History two years later, but neither of them registered very big ratings figures and neither saw the winners' enclosure again, either.

On the flip side, you can get horses like Islington, who finished her career with four Group 1s, having won this in 2002, and Sariska, who famously used this race last year as a springboard to success in the Oaks at Epsom, and the Irish version at the Curragh.

Henry Cecil has won it eight times, completing the Musidora/Oaks double three times, most recently when Reams Of Verse dashed home as the odds-on favourite at Epsom. Sir Michael Stoute doesn't have a shabby record either, having won the Group 2 contest seven times.

2.20pm
Winning trainer Michael Dods believes that his Kaptain Kirkup will eventually get further.

He said: "The main thing there was to get our boy to switch off early. You'd hope he would eventually get a mile, but I wouldn't want to have the ground any quicker than that."

Those who have had a bet in the 3.45pm, Itlaaq has been withdrawn. There is a 13.2% reduction factor to bets already placed and The Fonze, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore is the new [5.5] favourite.

2.10 result:
1: Kaptain Kirkup
2: Treadwell
3: Navajo Chief
Kaptain Kirkup comes down the middle of the track to settle the issue inside the final furlong. Tom Eaves rode a similar race to Ryan Moore in the first during the closing stages. Eaves had to really galvanise the winner, who seems to be more of a stoker than a colt with real acceleration. It was the second come-from behind win in as many races.

1.55pm
Winning jockey Ryan Moore believes that the going is as described. "It's decent, good ground," said the champ, still in the saddle. "Out the back it was a bit quicker, but it was proper good ground in the straight."

Moore's synopsis matches that of William Derby: "It's good, good to firm out there," said the dapper clerk of the course. "It's 8.6 on the Goingstick, with the good to firm part at the nine furlong start to the entrance of the straight. We've only had half a millimetre of rain throughout the morning."

1.40pm result:
1: Imposing
2: Indian Days
3: Tartan Gunna
Joe Fanning denied favourite punters a place pay-out by denying Forte Dei Marmi on the line for third. Forte Dei Marmi was matched at [1.01] for a place when coming to challenge long-time leader for Indian Days.

Imposing came with a very late rattle, and as an illustration of how far back the winner came from, the winner was matched at an in-running high of [12.5].

1.35pm
The first race is just a few minutes away. Punters need to be careful here, because although Forte Dei Marmi looks a solid betting proposition, it looks a messy race. There's no real pace angle at all, and it could become incredibly tactical.

That would be a good thing for fans of Recession Proof, another topical choice for politics fans. Recession Proof is ridden by conditional jockey Ian Brennan, who according to his trainer John Quinn is right up there with the professionals.

"I think he is an exceptional rider," said Quinn. "He is a very good judge of pace which is a big, big plus. He's a good lad."

Quinn was pretty non-committal about his horse's chances. "He's likeable. He was bought primarily as a jumper. He's got good form in races where the form has held up. We'll see in a few minutes."

1.30pm
Couldn't help watching the witty repartee between David Williams aka David Cameron, and Nick Luck aka George Osborne on RUK while I was having lunch. Tremendous stuff.
Fans of the General Election coverage over the past few weeks should be interested in Changing The Guard, as David Cameron and Nick Clegg sweep out Gordon Brown from No.10.

Richard Fahey's charge pulled far too hard last time out behind Roman Republic at Goodwood last season. Fahey's record in this race is one win and two places from eight runners in the last ten years, which would also bring in Fahey's other one Sand Tiger. Red Jade is a non-runner, as is General Elliott.

1.10pm
Sir Michael Stoute seems to be of the opinion that there isn't much in the Musidora Stakes (2.40pm) that will get every yard of the trip. The training knight seems on paper to be tilting at windmills with his 81-rated Eleanora Duse. Having campaigned on the all-weather, as well as in a handicap last time out, it would seem that Eleanora Duse is not the sort of filly that wins an average Musidora Stakes. Let's be honest, she's no Islington.

But this looks a distinctly below-average contest, as Sir Michael implies: "We are being a little bit ambitious with Eleanora Duse," said the Bajan. "She is from a very good Ballymacoll family so we are just going to have a cut at it. She has a bit to find on previous form but she is in good shape"

Peter Reynolds, manager of Ballymacoll Stud, which owns Eleanora Duse, was equally keen to talk up the filly's chances: "I think she'll strip fitter after her first run of the year," Reynolds said. "The trainer thinks she's good enough to be at that level, so hopefully we'll pick up a place or something."

I made the silly mistake of suggesting that the Musidora be a tall order for his Azamour filly, but Reynolds was having none of it. "I wouldn't say it was a tall order at all," he continued. "You never know, there's only eight runners. I wouldn't say I was confident, but she hasn't had much exposure. She's an improving filly, which is dangerous at this time of year."

She's been well backed, too. On Betfair she opened at [16.0], and now she trades at just [9.8].

The short shower we have just had hasn't done much. It's only brought my spirits down slightly. There's nothing worse than a bit of rain is there? I mean it should either hose it down, or not rain at all. I can't countenance fence-sitting, which is why I'm probably a gambler. Still, it's pretty cold here. I'm off to find some warming lunch - given I'm in Yorkshire, I'd imagine a Lancashire hotpot is right out?

12.55pm
Ladbrokes report more money for Showcasing in the Duke Of York Stakes (3.10pm) than the Pricewise tip, Starspangledbanner, which isn't the case on Betfair.

The Aidan O'Brien sprinter has attracted around £115k of trade, when compared to Showcasing £57k and former favourite Main Aim 40k.

Showcasing really is an interesting one judged on last season's scorching effort here in the Gimcrack. He broke the juvenile track record, recording a time 1.3 seconds faster than the all-age standard. But I was here for that monumental effort, and there was a strong tailwind, which meant some very fast times were recorded that day. John Gosden's colt was well-backed for that victory though, which is indeed the case today.

12.40pm
Now we have covered at length what effect being gelded would have on any man here before, but what we haven't necessarily talked about is whether this delicate operation should be marked on the racecard.

David writes: "Blinkers and tongue-ties etc are indicated on the racecard. Why is not being gelded?"

We can only imagine what the sign for that would be...

12.30pm
Still with the 1.40pm, Imposing, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, went off the 15-8 favourite for a valuable handicap at Newmarket last year and only just got chinned after six months off the track. The mount of champion jockey Ryan Moore has only raced four times since his first racecourse start in September 2008, but the market has spoken and according to Betfair, Imposing might not be fully tuned up.

First matched at [4.7], the four-year-old now trades at [5.5], but I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that drift, because only £100k has been matched on the event.

12.20pm
Staying with the opening handicap, Sand Tiger is another unfortunate animal to have been gelded recently. Richard Fahey's bottom-weight was chopped after his run at Wolverhampton in February, and then came out and won at Musselburgh on April 30th. I mean really! The four-year-old must have an iron constitution, because if you did that sort of operation to me, there would be no way I'd win an egg and spoon race, let alone a competitive 10-runner handicap a months later.

Sand Tiger once sold for 100,000gns in April 2008, but the Wildcard Racing syndicate picked the horse up for just 4,500gns in October. Is there some latent ability to Sand Tiger that hasn't been teased out yet?

Midday
Just like the Victoria Cup at Ascot last weekend when Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon teamed up with Mabait, the pair once again are responsible for a so-called handicap good thing. Many punters will be hoping the team's Forte Dei Marmi will get the meeting off to the best possible start by winning the Blue Square handicap at 1.40pm.

On Betfair the red-hot favourite trades at [3.25], with over half the trade on the race centred on the four-year-old. The son of Selkirk has gone up 12lbs since his scintillating three-and-a-half length victory over Elliptical at Newbury last month. Having been gelded over the winter though, that win might have been just the first step on his way to Group class.

We've got another non-runner: Rainfall (No.3) in the 2.10.

11.30am
Welcome to York everyone and to the Dante meeting. Or to the Musidora meeting. Or even the Yorkshire Cup meeting. Whichever you choose, because whatever way you look at it, there's some great racing on offer over the next few days with which to while away a few hours at your desk.

The highlight of today's card is undoubtedly the Duke Of York Stakes, so for me, it's going to be the Duke Of York meeting.
Starspangledbanner bids to emulate his sire Choisir in putting to the sword his British sprinting counterparts, and if Aidan O'Brien is correct, and the Aussie four-year-old is lightning quick, then we are all in for a treat this afternoon. Then again, O'Brien thought St Nicholas Abbey was the second coming and look what happened to him in the 2,000 Guineas. By the way, did you know that Marvin Gaye sung the Star Spangled Banner? No, me neither.

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