Events / Geoffrey Riddle / 27 February 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Geoffrey Riddle is once again in the blogging hotseat at Kempton where he's watching Nacarat bid for a second successive Racing Post Chase. E-mail him your questions, queries or tips on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5pm:
According to m'learned friend next to me in the press room, that Bumper time was slower than the three hurdle contests earlier on in the day. Admittedly the three hurdles were Graded events, but let's be honest, to post a time slower than a race involving obstacles, the form can't be worth much.

On that note, I'm out of here. I'm going into Cheltenham hibernation now. I won't see you until the first day of the Festival. Gosh it's exciting isn't it? Anticipating that Dunguib getting turned over...

4.45pm result:
1: Mic's Delight
2: Shammick Boy
3: Setter's Princess
Victor Dartnall wins the lucky last, but with the 'wrong' horse. Jack Doyle galvanised his six-year-old and got the better of Shammick Boy and Edward Glassonbury, who probably needed 20lbs off his back if he was going to win that. You would imagine that it is going to be a long afternoon for Glassonbury. The Dartnall stable must have punted that Shammick Boy heavily, and yet the other one won.

4.33pm
Nicky Henderson has an astounding record in this race. Over the last ten years he has won it three times, and has had three horses placed from ten runners. His Morecambe is trading at [6.0] on Betfair right now. I thought it would be favourite, to be honest. The Queen's horse, trained by Henderson and ridden by Barry Geraghty, is superseded by Victor Dartnall's Shammick Boy. I don't know about you, but have you ever seen a rider claim 10lbs? I certainly haven't. But Edward Glassonbury does. I'm not surprised he rides the favourite with that sort of aid.

4.10pm result:
1: Soxiante
2: Wee Robbie
3: Oracle Des Mottes
I think it would be churlish to suggest that Wee Robbie was unlucky, despite suffering interference when Sharp Rigging jumped in front of him in the straight, causing interference. But it was mighty close, with my selection just going down by a neck under a driving ride by Liam Treadwell. Soixante was in front from a long way out, and with the rain starting to fall, it looked like the champion jockey would get reeled in.

3.40pm result:
1: Soldatino
2: Toubab
Nicky Henderson had four to choose from when the entries were opened for this race, so presumably Soldatino is held in high regard. He was 66-1 for the Triumph Hurdle before this, and a seven-length defeat of a horse that Paul Nicholls has only entered in the Fred Winter suggests that Soldatino will not be involved heavily at Cheltenham.

3.40pm
I've been looking at the 4.10pm, in which Wee Robbie has been backed. Nick Gifford's ten-year-old was good enough to beat Mahogany Blaze in a Grade 2 on soft ground in 2008. He's an injury-prone gelding, but he is undoubtedly talented. He hasn't hads the rub of the mill in three runs this season, but at this level, over hsi favourite distance, he must have a hell of chance if back to something like his best. The horse has been matched at [11.0], but is now [8.2].

3.05pm result - Racing Post Chase:
1: Razor Royale
2: Nacarat
3: Le Burf
4: Madison Du Berlais
What a thriller. Nacarat backers got a real run for their money there and the free-wheeling grey was looking all the world the winner before he clouted the fourth-last. It looked to take nothing out of him though, and jockey Tony McCoy immediately got Nacarat straight back into his rhythm. But all the while, he was being pestered by Paddy Brennan and Razor Royale. In receipt of 15lbs Razor Royale got up to level before the last flight but smashed his way through the final fence - he barely got off the ground. From there up the run in it was nervous few seconds, as Brennan struggled to find his reins and out-fight the champion jockey all the way to the line. Sensational stuff. So much so in fact that I completely forgot to close out my trade on Nacarat. Who cares when sport is so thrilling?

2.55pm
"Ten of the last 11 winners of the RP Chase had won their latest start," argues Francis. Presumably that nugget of information is supposed to draw me in to backing Fistral Beach. No chance Francis. I'm sticking with my back-to-lay of Nacarat. And by the way, for those who were as confused as me earlier, Francis is the male spelling of the name, Frances the female. Thanks for clearing that one up for us all.

2.50pm
The Nightingale heads to the RSA. There were some suggestions before the race that the Jewson would be a target, but so easy was that win a minute ago that his handicap mark is likely to be blown out of the water. The high street firms go around 16-1 about The Nightingale for the RSA. I can't imagine Punchestowns is pacing around his stable in fear at that performance.

2.30pm result:
1: The Nightingale
2: Othermix
The Nightingale canters to the finish line untroubled by Othermix. A facile victory, which surely cannot leave trainer Paul Nicholls any wiser about The Nightingale's Cheltenham target?

It's the Racing Post Chase up next. All the world has been telling me that Fistral Beach is going to win this. Really? I can't have it myself, certainly not at [4.9] favourite. I know that the going is soft out there, but no horse out of the handicap has ever won the Racing Post chase. What's more, this race has a long-standing tradition of throwing up classy horses at the top of the weights.

2.28pm
Nicky Henderson has sent four novice chasers here this season and all four have won. It flags up the chances of his Viking Rebel, who gets 7lbs from the top two in the Pendil Novices' Chase.

Paul Nicholls said he aims to run The Nightingale in this race as a fact finder to what contest he should send him to at the Festival - the Arkle or the RSA. But the Pendil is run over 2m4 1/2f, so what does that tell us if he wins?

2.22pm
Escort'men's trainer Paul Nicholls was 'pleasantly surprised' when his babyish four-year-old scooted home in the Dovecote.

The French import fell on his British debut at Taunton in January, but he was effectively brought down that day. The vibes before the race today were not that good, and people at the track are still trying to fathom how on earth a Nicholls/Walsh combination was sent off at 16-1.

"Once I saw him settle on the turn, I knew he'd win," Nicholls said of the winner. "Even on Thursday Harry Skelton got off him after a piece of work and said he was slow, but the key to him is getting him to settle. He's a very keen type, and this flat track was crucial in helping him get settled."

It is no surprise given those comments that Escort'men will skip Cheltenham so stop hunting around for prices now. Nicholls tentatively mentioned that the gelding may go to Aintree, but that 'he was bought to be a chaser.'

2pm result:
1: Escort'men
2: Frascati Park
3: Salden Licht
Matched at [42.0] in-running Escort'men made a mockery of those odds to stroll the Grade 2 Novices Hurdle. A quick analysis would suggest it was a very taking performance as the time was a full six seconds quicker than Punjabi in the first. And Escort'men won as he pleased, with jockey Ruby Walsh coming up to leader Vino Griego before the last without moving a muscle. Impressive stuff.

1.48pm
Grey Soldier is much better on better ground so states Gordon Elliott, the trainer of the favourite of the next race. Elliott has a very high opinion of Grey Soldier though, and although better going may suit his charge, he may well be good enough on this soft ground anyway.

Grey Soldier has been heavily backed on Betfair. The biggest price he has been matched at is [5.75] and he is down to [3.35] now. Remember, Elliott's stable sent out Cayo Levantado ten days ago, a horse which was backed from 20-1 into 2-1. It hosed up by three lengths.

1.30pm result:
1: Clova Island
2: Helpston
3: Sangfroid
4: Stow
Layers of River D'Or had basically collected halfway round when Ruby Walsh started to go backwards. It was an odd race, because Cabinet Minister and Stripe Me Blue were out on front for a lot of the way. It looked like their searing pace was too quick, but they stayed there far longer than I expected. The punishing tempo took its toll eventually though, and Tom Scudamore missed the last flight to pull up so tired was Cabinet Minister.

Clova Island stayed on well, but Sangfroid looked impressive in third, and he picked up really well over the last two flights. The grey has been campaigned over further recently, and has only won over 2m3f, so presumably he needs further.

1.28pm
When I woke up this morning and looked at the Racing Post betting forecast, I was certain that I'd be laying River D'Or all day at their price of 13-8. Paul Nicholls' French-bred has virtually nothing to speak of in the book, but his potential and connections make him favourite for this. I think even at [5.2] I'm not temped to back him.
Colin has e-mailed in: "Look at Gary Moore's record in the 1.30pm. Six runners, two wins, two places in the last ten years."

1.25pm
I haven't had a chance to find Gary Moore, but surely his Numide is a lively outsider for the next? All of Numide's wins in Britain have been on soft ground, and his latest success was the 2008 edition of the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. He won off 124 that day, so a victory off 130 on his favourite going might not be beyond him here. I think [16.5] is a fair bet. I'll leave the place market. He'll either win, or blow up completely.

1.15pm
Winning trainer Nicky Henderson was overjoyed that the BHA had put that race on. I'm sure he was. He woke up this morning knowing that he was a 1-6 shot to pick up £13,000. Wouldn't we all like to be in that position, eh?

Henderson delivered an upbeat report to followers of Zaynar, after his high-profile defeat at Kelso. "We needed to get a run into Punjabi here. He was fit enough to win, and I think he won well. We didn't want a repeat of Kelso did we? Zaynar is well and he's on course. I'd still say I wouldn't rule out Zaynar for the Champion. He had two canters this morning and he's going to work next week."

1pm result:
1: Punjabi
2: Border Castle
3: Supernoverre
It looked like we were in for a bit of a race three flights from the finish, but as the pulled into the straight Barry Geraghty extended the Champion Hurdler and by the time he reached two out, he was well clear. A consummate performance, and I just hope that Francis had Border Castle in the forecast.

12.55pm
I know Zaynar was turned over the other day at odds of 1-14, but I just cannot comprehend how Punjabi can possibly lose this. Francis is not convinced though. "I'd have layed Punjabi at 1-6," he writes. Or perhaps it is a she? Or is that Frances? No matter. Anyway, Francis continues. "Punjabi hasn't won since his Champion Hurdle triumph last March. What's more, it is not as if that race has worked out well.
Border Castle's Scottish Champion Hurdle win last season was a surprise at 40-1, but Nick Schofield's mount won in a very fast time. He's got to be worth a few quid."

12.41pm
Betting.betfair's ace analyst, Graham Cunningham, has gone with Kilcrea Castle in the Racing Post chase. In-running punters also get a good angle from Cunningham, because he highlights that Nacarat is likely to be a classic back-to-lay vehicle. He'll bowl along in front, trade shorter, and then it will be down to whether he is good enough to hold off the hounds.

I'm not sure why there are so many out there who are interested in knocking Nacarat's chances this afternoon. He is proven on soft, having won twice and been placed on the three occasions he has raced on it. He's won twice from three on heavy, too, and although he finished very tired on good to soft around here on Boxing Day, that was up against Kauto Star, the outstanding chaser of our generation.

Even his trainer reckons he'll go on it. Tom George said: "I've got him as best as I can. Although I'd prefer to race him on better ground, he's won on heavy."

Nacarat has been displaced as favourite by Fistral Beach and Kilcrea Castle. Nacarat is trading at [6.4] now. He might even drift further, but I'm pretty sure he'll trade at at least half that at some point in-running.

12.25pm
Every layer in the land has suffered heavy trading volume on the Racing Post's Pricewise selection, Private Be in the Racing Post Chase. Not only did the Seagull squawk the chances of the Phillip Hobbs inmate in the paper and on the Morning Line, but John Francome got in the act and tipped it as well.

The Market Information curve on Betfair looks as steep as one of those Downhill runs at the Winter Olympics, such has the support been for the lightly-weighted 11-year-old. But a word of caution. Much like every high street PR person here today, Matt Doyle of Skybet wanted to say how much money had been wagered on Private Be. But Doyle let slip that although his firm had seen a lot of trade, only one of the firm's restricted punters - ie: shrewdie - had backed the Hobbs beast.

12.20pm
We've got a mammoth eight-race card here this afternoon. It's quite an achievement on Kempton's part, and the racecourse is understandably trying to squeeze as much value out of it as possible. It's 'Punjabi' this, 'Champion Hurdler' that, here on the tannoy as they try to broadcast to all what a marvellous day's racing everyone here is fortunate enough to witness.

As far as Punjabi is concerned, Blue Square were keen to highlight that one of their big hitters had £12k at 1-6. That's a £2k return in just under four minutes if the Champion Hurdler cleans up in the first. But there has been over £31k matched at [1.17] on Betfair, which is a better price. With that kind of volume, I would imagine the punter wouldn't have to pay the 5% commission, either...

Midday:
Good morning everyone and welcome to a grey and nasty Kempton Park for Racing Post Chase day. If you are reading this on your iphone at the track, unlucky for you because you've picked a horrid day to come racing. Those of you who are at home punting away from the comfort of your own home need a congratulations. You've made the right decision to stay away. It's was absolutely hosing it down here earlier. The track has received 76mm of rain in over ten days. Ooh, hasn't Kempton got such good drainage?

You can tell those who are glass half-empty types, because they are doom-mongering about the chances of racing going ahead. What is for certain though, is that the going is sure to be testing out there, and I'll keep you updated with any changes to the condition of the Kempton turf.

Tags: Kempton, Nacarat, Racing Post Chase