Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 50: The King George Stakes

Events / Jack Houghton / 22 July 2010 / 1

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Jack is hoping to profit from SAturday's big race at Ascot

"If Dar Re Mi hadn’t run so disappointingly in the Eclipse – her first race in three months under unfavourable conditions – then she would have been much shorter than [19.0]."

Jack enjoyed some success with last week's betting challenge and, on safe ground at Ascot this weekend, we can surely expect more of the same, can't we?

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

The last Betting Challenge instalment was a success. Partially. Classic Swain - the selection - powered to victory at Newton Abbot on Sunday. Unfortunately, in doing so, it did not trade at the requested [100.00] in-running, meaning no bet was actually placed.

A change of strategy is needed. With four pitches left, it was wrong to try and hit the ball out of the park at the first opportunity. I need solid hits, sure, but only enough to get the bases loaded. The final profitable wallop doesn't need to be delivered until week 52.

All I need is to go into the next bet with a Sampras or so to play with. A Sampras, for the uninitiated, is £250, or half a monkey. Doubling that money twice and, bada-bing, we're back in profit. Easy. That's for future weeks though. Right now I need to focus on this week's challenge, the King George.

Workforce is the rightful favourite for the Betfair-sponsored showcase. Putting a questionable Dante performance behind him, he dominated the Derby, posting a fast time and leaving little doubt that, on his day, he is a very high-class horse. And given that the Derby was only his third racecourse start, it is not unreasonable to expect improvement as he gains experience.

His price though - currently fluttering around the even-money mark - looks a little short by my book. He is running against older horses for the first time, including the able-looking Harbinger; has to face Cape Blanco, who beat him at York; and, being so inexperienced, is no certainty to handle Ascot. He might be the most likely winner, but he's no good to me at the price.

At First Sight looks an absolutely enormous price at [250.00] and I'm having £4 on. I make his Epsom run around third-best in this field on the clock, with only Cape Blanco and Workforce having posted quicker. Much of his price will be on account of the expectation that he will trail-blaze again, acting as a pacemaker for his stablemate.

However, it's likely Confront has been put in the race by Stoute to do that job and, you would think, if O'Brien has designs on winning the race, he won't necessarily want an end-to-end pace, which would surely favour Workforce. I have a feeling At First Sight will be ridden with more restraint on Saturday and, if he is, that gargantuan price might look very generous.

Elsewhere in the field, Youmzain and Dar Re Mi also look over-priced; but whereas the former seems to struggle to perform at peak on fast ground, Dar Re Mi seems to excel on it. And on the pick of her form - fifth against Sea The Stars in the Arc and when winning the Dubai Sheema Classic - she only has a few pounds to find on Workforce at the weights.

If Dar Re Mi hadn't run so disappointingly in the Eclipse - her first race in three months under unfavourable conditions - then she would have been much shorter than [19.0] for this. So the Betting Challenge is having £10 on at the price, in the expectation that she can swoop late off a fast pace to beat more favoured rivals.

This week's bets:

£4 Back At First Sight at [250.0] in King George.
£10 Back Dar Re Mi at [19.0] in King George.

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Jack Houghton | 24 July 2010

STOP PRESS.

Given my two selections are both non-runners, and given the Betting Challenge can't let a week go by without having a bet (there just isn't time), I'm switching allegiances to Youmzain - £14 at 21.0.

I'm a little concerned about the ground for him, but that's more than made up for in the price.