Events / Jack Houghton / 19 February 2010 /

They say variety is the spice of life but it's killing Mr Houghton's betting bank so he's focusing on the Saturday jumps action, including the Betfair Ascot Chase, in attempt to turn a profit

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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You know you're in trouble when your entire consciousness is dominated by the progress of a lycra-clad knuckle-head flinging themselves down a sheer ice hill on a glorified toboggan. And yet -- as spookily prophesised a few weeks' back -- that's how I find myself: flicking between Eurosport and the BBC's red button to remain up-to-date with Amy Williams' journey to Olympic gold. If she manages it, the Betting Challenge will have stemmed, temporarily, the otherwise torrential haemorrhaging of funds it has suffered of late.

Either way though, it seems sensible to retreat to more familiar surroundings this week, so to the Betfair-sponsored card at Ascot on Saturday we go.

Herecomesthetruth is the value to take the Betfair Ascot Chase. The market currently rates Planet Of Sound as favourite, but it's hard to see why: he's having his first run since November; is trying the longer trip for the first time; and is not the fastest horse on show, being a smidgen behind Herecomesthetruth on lifetime-best speed ratings.

On my tissue, Herecomesthetruth should be slight favourite. Ignore a run-out, and a couple of dodgy jumps, and his form looks concrete. He's put up a string of solid clock performances -- he was on course for his best yet at Huntingdon before unseating at the last -- and, assuming Monet's Garden can't recapture his best of a few years' back, Herecomesthetruth is the best on offer. The Betting Challenge is having £30 on at [3.5].

Earlier on the card, in the Reynoldstown Novices Chase, the focus will be on Punchestowns, Burton Port and Tazbar. They've certainly got a healthy-looking string of ones next to their names and, especially so with Punchestowns, have some compelling hurdle form to take note of. However, none of them are yet to put up a glittering clock performance over fences and, if he runs, Latanier is of interest. His third at Sandown in a novice handicap chase under top-weight was impressive on the clock and, at a likely big price, the Betting Challenge is having £10 on to place at Betfair SP.

In the Betfair Handicap Hurdle on the same card, all eyes -- and likely plenty of money -- will be focused on French-import Rock Noir. On a line through some horses he has beaten in France, he looks to have been given a fair mark, and it will be no surprise to see him win. But should he run, his price looks prohibitive (at the time of writing he's already been matched at a low of [4.9] in Betfair's ante-post market), and so I'll be looking elsewhere. Dee Ee Williams put up a lifetime best when chasing home Binocular last time and the Betting Challenge is having £10 on to place at Betfair SP.

Celestial Halo remains the best horse in the Champion Hurdle market in my eyes. His defeat to Solwhit in the Irish Champion Hurdle tells us how heavy the ground was that day and, even so, the horse was yet again ridden aggressively. I have no problem with a horse leading, but all too often Celestial Halo is asked to post miracle fractions in order to do so -- something which cost him the Champion Hurdle last year. If he runs, I expect Celestial Halo to run well in Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle on Saturday, and the Betting Challenge is having £20 on at Betfair SP.

This week's bets:
£30 BACK of Herecomesthetruth at [3.5] in Betfair Ascot Chase.
£10 BACK of Latanier to place at Betfair SP in Reynoldstown Chase.
£10 BACK of Dee Ee Williams to place at Betfair SP in Betfair Handicap Hurdle.
£20 BACK of Celestial Halo at Betfair SP in Kingwell Hurdle.

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