Events / Jack Houghton / 20 November 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Jack Houghton has a funny feeling about the Betfair Chase (don't ask) but it leads to one thing - a very simple bet. Find out which way he's going in Saturday's big one by reading on

After a dreary run of losing racing bets, culminating with two selections out of contention by fence three in last week's Paddy Power Gold Cup, some lesser men would have departed for sunnier climbs. But, ever loyal, I thought it only right to pay a visit to the soaking North, to Saturday's Betfair Chase, the flagship jumping sponsorship of my Hammersmith-based masters. And I've got a sense of something. A feeling. Somewhere to the left of my loins. Left a bit more. That's it.

The feeling's been there a while. Since April in fact. It started after the Punchestown Gold Cup. It was a race I couldn't figure out at the time and now, revisiting it seven months later, I'm not doing much better. Notre Pere dominated that day, posting a speed rating far in excess of anything he'd managed before: a number that theoretically put him within five pounds of the peaks achieved by Denman and Kauto Star in recent years. But something wasn't right.

When looking at the racing record of a horse, it is common to find one or two clock performances significantly better than the average for that horse. With handicap ratings, on the other hand, consistency is more common. This makes sense: posting a big speed rating requires even-paced running; a challenge for jockeys trying to win races, not record fast times. This is why you often see back-to-back performances by a horse given equal handicap ratings, but wildly different speed ratings. What a big speed rating tells you though is about a horse's potential. It says that, on its day, with everything falling right, this is how good the horse can be.

That should be enough then, shouldn't it, to tell us that Notre Pere, on his day, is only a few of bags of sugar inferior to Kauto Star; and enough to explain why they're so close in price on Saturday.

The thing is, I'm not so sure they should be. I can't really pin down why (it's something to do with the number of horses who posted lifetime bests in the race, despite unfavourable conditions), but to my nose, or should that be my loins, the time reeks. Come Saturday afternoon, I might need to change that opinion, get myself to the doctor, and find out what on earth is going on down there. For now though, I'm assuming Notre Pere isn't as good as the market thinks. I'm backing Kauto Star for £30 at [2.30].

On Monday night I'm at the O2 to watch Novak Djokovic versus Nikolay Davydenko in the ATP World Tour Finals. With the seats I've got, according to online reviewers, I might as well be watching the action with a pair of binoculars from atop Walthamstow Stadium. Nonetheless, I should get some sense, from crowd noise at least, how my pick to win the event is getting on. I'm backing Djokovic for £10 at [4.0].

He's won consecutive Tour events in Basel and Paris and looks to have drawn the easier group. A player finally getting his act together this year; he's the most likely winner.

Federer hasn't won a title since a US Open warm-up in August. He was beaten by Djokovic in Basel, and by Benneteau in a shock first-round exit in Paris. He has the back-class for sure, but doesn't look to be revelling in this year-end stuff and, despite the good work he's done for Bank Account Houghton this year, can't be recommended at a prohibitive price.

Murray won in Valencia without beating anyone of note and still looks likely to throw in a shocking performance when least expected. At [5.0], his price is too short. A half-a-beat short Nadal looks about right at [10.0]; Del Potro has had more retirements of late than Muhammad Ali; and Davydenko and Verdasco simply look limited against the world's best. That leaves Robin Soderling, who seems on the verge of regaining the form that saw him so effective mid-season, and I'm having £10 on at [30.0] in the hope he can capitalise against opponents displaying indifferent form.

Hang on a second. I'm getting that feeling again.

This week's bets:
£30 BACK Kauto Star at [2.30] in Betfair Chase Winner market.
£10 BACK Djokovic at [4.0] in ATP World Tour Finals Winner market.
£10 BACK Soderling at [30.0] in ATP World Tour Finals Winner market.

Tags: ATP World Tour Finals, Betfair Chase, Handicap Ratings, Kauto Star, Nikolay Davydenko, Notre Pere, Novak Djokovic, Paddy Power Gold Cup, Punchestown Gold Cup, Robin Soderling, Speed Ratings