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King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview: Duke is an ante-post betting hazard!

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Simon Rowlands looks ahead to this weekend's racing and tells us why he will be going against form on Saturday 26th July at Ascot.

Laying Aidan O'Brien trained horses in Group 1s would have been a passport to penury this season so it is with a certain amount of trepidation that I recommend doing just that.

The horse in question is Duke of Marmalade and the race in question is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on July 26th. Duke of Marmalade can be backed on Betfair at [1.92] and laid at [1.98]. The likelihood is that if you put up a lay at [1.93] or [1.94] it will be taken: I know, as that is what I have just done.

Duke of Marmalade has contributed three Group 1s - the Prix Ganay at Longchamp, the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh and the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot - to O'Brien's total and is undoubtedly high-class. So, why oppose him?

Ultimately, it is all down to price: odds on is too short in my view. However, let's consider the horse's strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of some of his likely rivals.

Workmanlike defeats of Saddex in France and a non-staying Finsceal Beo in Ireland are not what you expect of a horse destined to dominate the market for Britain's premier all-aged mile-and-a-half event. A four-length victory at Royal Ascot arguably is, but consider the fact that all six horses to have run out of the Prince of Wales's Stakes since have been beaten, three of them in a decidedly weak Eclipse Stakes.

Then there is the fact that Duke of Marmalade has yet to race at beyond a mile and a quarter. I expect him to stay an extra two furlongs but it is a doubt that anyone backing him at a short price needs to consider. The Royal Ascot win came on firm going and any easing in the surface (it is summertime in Britain, so it has to be a distinct possibility) would ask greater questions of the horse's stamina.

Among Duke of Marmalade's rivals is Youmzain ([4.7] to back), second in this and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 2007 and better than ever judged on his defeat of Duke of Marmalade's stable-companion Soldier of Fortune in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last month. I reckon Soldier of Fortune is about as good a horse as Duke of Marmalade.

Then there is Ask ([11.0] to back), who got a poor run behind Duke of Marmalade at Royal Ascot and who will be very well suited by the return to a longer trip, and Lucarno ([16.5] to back) and Papal Bull ([19.0] to back), who finished first and second in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket the other day. I got lucky that day in laying Papal Bull, who should have won, but Lucarno was conceding him weight and is a straightforward and classy horse in his own right.

That is without naming any of the other 12 runners currently declared for the Ascot showpiece, though admittedly half of that dozen are also trained by Aidan O'Brien.

[1.92] looks too short about Duke of Marmalade: I may just put another chunk up.

* * *

There is a low-key weekend of racing ahead in both Britain and Ireland - I may get stuck into the golf instead - but winners are winners wherever and whenever they come.

I regard trainer form as an important factor in backing winners and laying losers, and it is relatively easy to keep on top of such matters in Ireland with the lesser volume of racing there. Mick Halford has had a stop-start sort of season, having nine winners from March to May but just one in June, a month which had been his most successful in 2006. He has also regularly dipped under the 50% of rivals beaten this year, which is poor for one of his standing.

There have, however, been distinct signs of a recovery of late. A winner at the Curragh on Saturday and an across-the-card double at Downpatrick and Killarney on Monday came hand in hand with a surge in rivals beaten to a very healthy 66.9% in the last week.

Halford probably has some very well-handicapped horses on his hands, not least a filly called Crosspatch, who shaped very well when fifth at Bellewstown earlier this month and who gets into handicaps off a mark of just 55. She is declared to run in the 6:45 at Fairyhouse on Thursday.