Events / Simon Rowlands / 03 October 2011 /

The Arc result surprised many but stands closer scrutiny. Timeform's Head of Handicapping, Simon Rowlands, discusses the ratings from that race and from the many other significant ones over the last week.

It is a basic scientific principle - and should be a central tenet of any racing analysis - that you should let events inform your views, rather than holding onto your views regardless of events.

Some events are difficult to swallow. Discoveries that the Earth was roughly spherical, not flat, that man was descended from the apes, and that it was permissible to award a penalty against Manchester United at Old Trafford, were not popular in all quarters.

But the choice was obvious: you either stuck to your views, regardless, or amended those views in the light of "reality".

The five-length win of Danedream in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp came as an inconvenient truth to many - she started at 27/1 on the PMU (Betfair SP of [44.0]) - but there is no compelling reason to view it as anything other than a decidedly good victory by a filly who had clearly been undervalued.

The time - on ground Timeform believes was "good to firm" - was a race record, and the sectionals suggest that the pace was sound and that the runners were finishing no faster (but if anything a bit slower) than could be expected.

Not every one of the beaten horses gave its running - that would be remarkable in a field of 16 anyway - and there is a decent argument that So You Think, Sarafina and even Snow Fairy would have been closer set less to do. But the winner made ground, rather than lost it, on that trio late on and was quite clearly the best horse on the day.

Danedream's new Timeform rating of 132 fits in closely with race and prior-rating standards, is slightly above average for the Arc in recent years and can be viewed even more positively when one considers that her sex allowance of 3 lb "dumbs down" her rating by that amount.

Some great horses have won the Arc, but unambiguously great performances in the race itself are not that frequent. Zarkava, another three-year-old filly, ran to 130 when winning in 2008.

Danedream's win bordered on greatness, however improbable that seemed beforehand: the future will show whether she is indeed great herself.

The ratings of So You Think (now 131) and Snow Fairy (now 127) have been trimmed, but the likes of St Nicholas Abbey (ran 1 lb below his pre-race 126) and Meandre (improved by 1 lb on his pre-race 123) performed much as could be expected. Shareta (up 7 lb to 123) in second would not be the first lightly-raced three-year-old to thrive in this contest.

Classy performances in the supporting events at Longchamp's Arc meeting were numerous. Dream Ahead (rated 133) and Goldikova (remains on 129) put six lengths and more between them and the rest in the Group 1 Prix de La Foret, and there is again no obvious reason to doubt the form.

Goldikova continues to operate a few pounds below her brilliant best (rated 133 in 2009 and 2010) but should go for a fourth successive Breeders' Cup Mile with a major chance, if not with quite the aura of invincibility of previous years.

The Cadran (Kasbah Bliss, ran to 117), Abbaye (Tangerine Trees, 122) and Opera (Nahrain, 119) saw solid rather than spectacular winning performances by Group 1 standards.

"Spectacular" would adequately describe the finishing burst of Dabirsim in winning the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere under a supremely confident Dettori ride, but it would not do for describing the bare form of that race.

About three lengths covered all seven runners, two of them outsiders with barely useful form, and Timeform has Dabirsim running to only 109. He is better judged on his Morny win, which resulted in a rating of 119.

The Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac turned into a sprint, with the five fillies spread across the track and front-running Elusive Kate holding on to win by three lengths despite wandering. Her rating of 114 is close to par for a winner of the race if a few pounds shy of what is likely to be required to win the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Rajsaman and Rio de La Plata did the Frankel Sussex Stakes form no harm - again - by finishing first and second in the Group 2 Daniel Wildenstein: both are now rated 121.

Byword was back to very near his 126 best in winning the Group 2 Dollar by a short nose from Cirrus des Aigles (rated 127), in receipt of 4 lb from his admirably reliable rival.

Performance of the week in Britain was Quest For Peace's 122-rated win in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot.

The weekend was a highly significant one in North America also, which is covered in a separate Handicappers' Corner here.

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