Weekend Racing Betting: Guineas Preview

Guineas / Kieran Packman / 30 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Try to pick holes if you must but St Nicholas Abbey is by far the best horse in Saturday's 2,000 Guineas

"St Nicholas Abbey may trade as [2.6] favourite for Saturday's showpiece, but I feel he thoroughly justifies such odds, given both his own credentials and the relative paucity of opposition. Although many will try to pick holes in him, the only credible concern that can be levelled at him, is that he may not handle the good to firm ground. He may not, but not having yet run on it is considerably different to having underperformed on it."

As the 2010 Classic action gets underway with two fascinating contests on the Rowley Mile, Timeform's Kieran Packman tries (and fails) to avoid the obvious in the headline races at Newmarket, but also picks out a pair on the supporting card who look to offer trading potential.

Safe vote is with O'Brien colt in 2000 Guineas

In a week's time, the election result will be known, but at this stage there looks a lot more mileage in St Nicholas Abbey as the week's banker, compared to judging the up and down campaigns of Brown, Cameron and Clegg (ok, just down in Brown's case).

Aidan O'Brien's colt may trade as [2.6] favourite for Saturday's showpiece, but I feel he thoroughly justifies such odds, given both his own credentials and the relative paucity of opposition. Although many will try to pick holes in him, the only credible concern that can be levelled at him, is that he may not handle the good to firm ground. He may not, but not having yet run on it is considerably different to having underperformed on it. His sister Cascata is absolutely fine on quick ground, as is his half-brother Grammarian. It is a straw to clutch at, but I suspect it will be prove to be a short one for layers.

For those looking to swerve the box marked St Nicholas Abbey, I'm with one and against one in the place market. Inler is an archetypal hype horse with no more than maiden form to his name from a stable with precious little experience of what's required from this calibre of miler. He should just about stay, but he's woefully short of match practice for this level. Anyone placing any store by his racecourse gallop with 72-rated Halsion Chancer can back him with me. I'll be against him at [5.0] or shorter.

One with considerably more resilient claims is Xtension, who made steady progress in top company as he stepped up in trip as a juvenile and can improve again for this first crack at a mile. He doesn't have the star potential of the favourite, but he's proven at this level, has conditions to suit and is certainly over-priced at [4.6] and upwards to reach a place.


Whether to forgive reappearance effort is key with 1000 favourite

'Third, beaten a length, in a Group 3 when odds-on' reads considerably less well than 'won Group 1 by nearly three lengths'. That's the rub with Special Duty, who just about retains favouritism for the 1,000 Guineas around the [4.8] mark, but would have likely been at least a point shorter were it not for her underwhelming reappearance effort last month.

Her trainer Criquette Head seems very relaxed about that defeat and able to forgive, though she would do wouldn't she? That said, she knows full well what is required to win a 1,000 (a trio of successes to her name) and, indeed, her most recent winner, Hatoof in 1992, was turned over in the very same prep race.

On her form of last year, Special Duty has impeccable credentials for a Classic bid. Her Cheveley Park success was the best performance by a juvenile filly with any hope of staying a mile, she has the physical scope to train on, she's bred to stay and we've discussed her trainer's record. With all those factors on her side, I'd rather be with her than against her at the price.


Two travellers amongst the supporting cast

Newmarket's pair of cards this weekend offer plenty for those who prefer the meat of handicaps to the fine wine of Classics. The Spring Cup at Newbury a fortnight ago was a shambles of a race, any number of contenders encountering traffic problems as Brunston somehow lumbered his way down the outside to score at a BSP of [65.0]. I think the race will throw up a few winners from those some way adrift of the frame and one such possibility is Newbury seventh Dalradian in the 13:55 on Saturday.

His price won't have been helped by his trainer William Knight's Ascot double midweek, but he's made excellent progress on polytrack and gave more than enough of a hint at Newbury that his turf peak has not yet been reached. The principal hallmark of his recent performances has been his ability to travel into things on the bridle. He therefore has very solid back-to-lay potential, admittedly in a field containing other improvers in Albaqaa and Shamali.

A similar case can be made later in the day for Swilly Ferry, another who went into the mythical notebook as an unlucky loser when fifth at the Craven meeting here. Despite no fewer than ten road trips as a juvenile, he long hinted that there was better to come faced with a strongly-run six furlongs, conditions he took full advantage of when winning a valuable sales event at Doncaster in September.

Returning to the same course and distance as when boxed in on that reappearance, he looks sure to be ideally suited by the big field and likely searing gallop and is another for those who see the value in greening up on strong travellers.