Guineas / Will Hayler / 21 April 2010 /

Will Hayler has plenty of opinions on plenty of horses which he is happy to back up with his hard-earned. However, some races are just to tough to call - even for an 18-a-day man.

It takes every kind of punter to make the Betfair world go round and selectivity has never been a personal strongpoint.

Taking yesterday (Tuesday) as an example. I had bets on a total of 18 races, covering five of the six British and Irish meetings.
I am unashamed of the fact that I have plenty of opinions about plenty of horses which I want to back up with cash on most days. Nor should it be a surprise, given that I try and watch a recording of every race each day at least twice. Even now, yesterday's replays are burbling away in the background on the television. (Can I take this opportunity quickly to thank Wigrams Turn for putting its head to one side and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - again).

Some manage to restrict themselves to two or three bets over a week, or a month. Some even less. Each to their own. But even for a regular punter like me, there are some races that it's best to leave alone.

Reading through the fascinating thread on the ante-post section of the forum entitled "surely on pedigree St Nicholas Abbey CANNOT win 2000 Guineas!?" I seem to be in the minority. Everyone else in the racing world, it seems, has already made their mind up about this horse.

In the red corner, Norekk says he "cannot win", Top Div says he "can't have him", Charlton2005 says he's "a large lay". In the blue corner, JamesP says he's "the one they all have to beat", while requestingflyby says we should "pile on" and PrimaDonna says "go to Newmarket, you will see him win".

I'm not going to trouble you all with anything bar the most basic cases for backing or laying St Nicholas Abbey at his present odds around the [2.6] mark.

Everyone has seen how he beat the best of the British-trained two-year-olds with astonishing ease in the Racing Post Trophy in a good time (not sure from where some have got the idea that he wasn't impressive on the clock). What I would find concerning if I was a backer is that having been at Doncaster that day, Aidan O'Brien could hardly have made it plainer afterwards that he didn't see the horse starting off in the 2000 Guineas and would instead keep him back for a Derby trial before Epsom.

One bookmaker didn't include him in their betting for months. Although already the Derby favourite before Doncaster, he had been a 20-1 chance for the Guineas and evidently was not considered a real Newmarket candidate by anybody.
Without much fanfare, somewhere along the line, the Ballydoyle team have changed their minds. Why?

Maybe wanting to make Montjeu the sire of a Guineas winner has got something to do with it. Or maybe, like some on the forum, they just think he's so much better than the rest that he might as well win two British Classics as one.

But beware the lessons of Celtic Swing, who was awarded a rating of 130 in the classifications - making him the best juvenile for about 30 years - after winning the Racing Post Trophy in 1994. He was a 2-1 chance for the Guineas and Derby in January the following year, and all of the talk was of how his rare combination of freak speed combined with a stout pedigree (ringing any bells here?) would mean that he would be the first triple crown winner since Nijinksy.

Former Timeform boss Jim McGrath was among the many of us who thought Celtic Swing was a certainty to win the 2000 Guineas and he later admitted to having had his largest-ever bet on the race. Timeform ratings had him a mile clear. Had I been earning more than £2.32 an hour on the till at Woolworths, I might have been tempted myself.

As it was, I took a late lunch break with a bag full of out-of-date pic'n'mix to watch him go down by a head to Pennekamp. He subsequently won the French Derby, albeit hardly impressively, before breaking down in the Irish version.

Sometimes, I look at next month's race and think that [2.6] looks a very fair price for St Nicholas Abbey, especially now that he seems to be a definite runner. Sometimes I remember those that have fallen by the wayside attempting to tread the same path (no horse for almost 40 years has won both the Racing Post Trophy and the 2000 Guineas) and I think it looks a terrible price.

The conclusion therefore? No bet. Having an opinion on a market doesn't mean that you have to play in it. And that's coming from a 18-races-a-day man.

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