Guineas Festival Betting: Saturday stats

Guineas / David Stewart / 30 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket is set for blue skies on day one

"It's telling that seven of the last nine winners have been trained abroad... "

It's the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the big question is do the stats point towards Frankel becoming the shortest price favourite in years to win? Or will there be a massive shock on the cards as there was last year with 33/1 outsider Makfi ? David Stewart reports.

15:10 - 2000 Guineas

Flashstats

We have plenty of stats to crunch for the 2000 Guineas - after all, it is the 203rd running! In the 202 previous races favourites have a good strike-rate at just under 40%. In the last 45 years Nijinsky is the shortest priced winner when 4/7 in 1970 but Apalachee flopped in 1974 when only third at 4/9. Frankel is likely to go off between those two prices and certainly can't be ruled out on price alone. However, the race has sprung a couple of surprises in recent years with 25/1 Cockney Rebel in 2007 and of course Makfi last year who also ended a spell of seasonal debutants winning.

It's telling that seven of the last nine winners have been trained abroad - and there are three runners ticking that box this year, one from France and two Irish raiders. Sir Michael Stoute (no entries this year) and Aidan O'Brien (Roderic O'Connor) are the most successful current trainers in the race and horses having an unbeaten record going in isn't necessarily a positive.

We'll narrow the three contenders down to the raiders and recommend covering each on the Betfair place market. Perhaps a three point place, one point win for the Pathfork and Roderick O'Connor and a 0.5 point win and place on massive outsider Broox could be a sensible approach.

Contenders: Pathfork, Roderic O'Connor, Broox

17:25 Qipco Supports Racing Welfare Handicap

Flashstats

Favourites have an alarmingly poor record in the finale with just one obliging in the last 10 runnings. Coupling that with the fact that a win coming into the race is also a negative, the obvious lay is top weight Sikeeb who traded as market leader on Betfair overnight at around [4.2]. He won well at Newbury last time but has the triple combo of 7lb extra, extra distance and tougher opposition to contend with here.

Contenders: Sikeeb (lay)