Guineas Betting: What does it take to win?

Events / Wayne Bailey / 01 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey on the stats you need to know before betting on the Newmarket action

Although the Flat season officially kicked off back in March with the Lincoln, many of us were pre-occupied with Aintree and Punchestown to give it our full attention. Some quiet reflection time on the jumps season just gone would be nice right now, but if you want to relax you'd better go join the Buddhists, as racing fans have the pressing matter of two Classics to figure out this weekend.

I was looking through the entries, and at first glance, there are quite a few likely winners for both contests (oh the joys of three-year-old racing!), so I sat down and asked the question... What does it take to win, and which horses have what it takes?

Let's start with Saturday's 2,000 Guineas first. For me, there were six important traits that can help point to the winner...

1. Recent form: good form is essential and 10/12 previous 2,000 Guineas winners were successful last time out.
2. Top yards: Two of the best Flat trainers in the business (O'Brien and Stoute) have won this between them seven times in the past 12 renewals. With such a strong record, their horses definitely warrant extra attention.
3. Proven at the top: While a recent win is important, 5/10 actually won a group race in their previous outing, so winning experience at top-level racing is a good sign.
4. Ratings: Some horses are lightly raced; so official figures are not much help here. However, their Racing Post Rating is significant, and 8/10 winners ran off a rating higher than 120.
5. Speed: A reliable horse that can adapt to the pace is what we're after, and 9/10 previous winners had a Topspeed rating above 110.
6. Career wins: There's no point in playing guessing games here and you should stick with horses that have proven ability. 8/10 past winners had two career wins or more under their belt before competing.

Conclusion: New Approach looks likely to go off favourite, but he's way too short for me in a race that's normally unkind to jolly backers. There are two horses however, that match five of the six pointers above, namely Ibn Khaldun and Jupiter Pluvius. The latter horse scoped poorly yesterday, and O'Brien said it's doubtful that he'll run. So at around [6.0], Ibn Khaldun looks like a good value bet, and can give Saeed Bin Suroor his first win since 1999.

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In the fillies' version on Sunday, there are five stand out traits that can help put the jigsaw together...

1. Courses: Check where the horse last ran, as 10/12 previous 1,000 Guineas winners appeared at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out.
2. Proven at the top: Form at the top level is essential, and 12/12 past winners came first or second in a group race at some stage of their career.
3. Speed: Stick with those that have a Topspeed rating greater than 100, as no horse with less has scored in the past ten years.
4. Career Wins: Only consider horses that have proved themselves already. 9/10 winners had at least two career wins to their name.
5. Ratings: Again, the official rating is not much help, but all of the past ten winners had a Racing Post Rating above 110.

Two of Sunday's horses meet four out of the five pointers above, and I'm finding it hard to separate both. If I get a decent price, I'll consider dutching them both. Spacious has done nothing wrong so far, and her current price of [6.4] seems quite generous. Spencer should be on board, and I'll be surprised if she doesn't place at least. However, Savethisdanceforme from Aidan O'Brien's yard just about gets the nod. If the going stays the same, she'll enjoy the conditions, and the distance should suit perfectly. Her price has come in somewhat today, but [12.5] still looks like cracking value.

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Agree? Disagree?

They're the first Classics of the season, so put your head on the block and post your thoughts. There's no point telling us what you backed on Monday, so give us your feedback!