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Guineas Betting: For once, the Craven gave us something really interesting for Newmarket in May

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Simon Rowlands on the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas ramifications after an fascinating week on the Flat

A bit like the response from Mark Twain upon reading his death notice in the newspaper, the reports of the demise of the spring classic trials could be described as "greatly exaggerated". Those who wrote obituaries - me included - were treated to a display of rude health from the two that took place at Newmarket at least.

As mentioned previously, a horse customarily needs to beat the majority of its rivals handsomely in the Craven Stakes to be considered truly up to the standard required to win the 2000 Guineas on the same track a few weeks later. In the case of last week's Craven we had TWO horses doing just that. Twice Over and Raven's Pass were separated by only a short head but had six lengths back to the third and an even more notable 13.5 lengths back to the fifth.

A Craven winner is usually rated around 114 and a second around 109, but a third generally weighs in at about 106, a fourth at 105 and a fifth at 101. Clearly, if either of the first two were true in this instance then there would be nothing to get excited about, but if the last-named were the case then Twice Over and Raven's Pass would be champion racehorse material and much better than a usual winner of the 2000 Guineas, let alone the Craven.

If you adjust for field size, use the proper poundage allowance for distance beaten and weight the data accordingly, you get a standardised rating for the first two in the Craven of 121, or arguably a bit less, when the standard rating of a Guineas winner is 123.

Can the pair improve a few pounds on what they did the other day? I think so, and I am inclined to think that Raven's Pass, in particular, will take a great deal of beating in the big one. Conditions were more testing than usual - down to a combination of a headwind and ground that was somewhat softer than the official "good" - and Raven's Pass did not quite get home having gone like a decidedly good horse for a long way. I am hoping for faster conditions back at HQ on May 3rd.

The [6.0] on Betfair still looks a good price to me for Raven's Pass. Twice Over deserves to be a lot shorter than [12.0] if his participation in the first colts' classic is confirmed.

The day before the Craven, Infallible put up a most taking performance in winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes on the same track. Similar comments about the customary overall level of this trial apply, but it is a race that has seldom been won with such authority. There were 6.5 lengths back to the third and 8 lengths back to the fifth, despite there being fully 14 runners.

I make that worth a rating of 112 or possibly a bit less, once the number-crunching has been done, which is about 5 lb below usual 1,000 Guineas-winning standard. It was no surprise to see Infallible's price tumble in the ante-post market to [5.2], though I am still happy to be with Natagora ([6.2]) and Savethisdanceforme ([18.5]) for the first fillies' classic on May 4th.

The DDF Stakes (aka Fred Darling Stakes) at Newbury on Saturday saw a win for the much-touted Muthabara. The daughter of Red Ransom was better than the result but will need to be considerably so to win the 1,000. A standard rating of the winner of the Newbury race, in this manner and in these circumstances, would be around 10 lb below what Infallible achieved three days earlier.

There's not much activity on the ante-post place market for the 1,000 at present, but it may well be possible to lay Muthabara at somewhere in the region of [2.2] to [2.5] in the next week and a half, and I reckon that will prove to be good business.

The Greenham Stakes later on Newbury's card caused barely a ripple in the betting for the 2,000 Guineas and looks unexceptional form, even by the race's recent standards.

All this talk of superb Flat action just gone and soon to come should not distract entirely from some excellent jumps racing at Punchestown this week. With conditions having dried out quite a bit, and with his stable back in much better form than for most of this year, Aitmatov looks the one to be on in the World Series Hurdle on Thursday. He could well go off at around half his current [9.6] odds for the race come the day.