Events / Graham Cunningham / 05 November 2011 /

A memorable Flat season concludes in Kentucky tonight when Goldikova bids for an unprecedented fourth consecutive success in the Breeders' Cup Mile. TVG analyst Graham Cunningham has no doubt 'Goldi' is the one to beat at Churchill Downs again but is casting his net far and wide in search of the best bets on a card featuring no fewer than nine championship races.

17.20 BC MARATHON

A quirky start to a wonderful card and clearly one of the less appealing punting races of the day. A U Miner and Birdrun loom large among the home team, while Giant Oak has been extremely consistent against the very best American ten furlong horses and Euro raiders Meeznah, Brigantin and Harrison's Cave all have a question to answer as regards handling dirt.

Conclusion: Brigantin and Meeznah, though confidence isn't high enough to recommend a definite bet.


18.02 BC JUVENILE TURF

It will be fascinating to see whether Caspar Netscher slips under the radar on the American PMU because he hails from an unheralded stable. I hope he does, because this colt is a thoroughly likeable and professional youngster who is close behind the best in Europe based on his Gimcrack and Mill Reef wins. What's more, Caspar Netscher shaped as if this sharp mile might be within his range when powering home from way back in the Middle Park at Newmarket. I like his chances of hitting the frame here. But I'm less keen on fellow Euro Farraaj based on his edgy track antics this week whilst Majestic City also blotted his copybook with a very wayward workout.

Conclusion: Caspar Netscher's best gives him a very sporting each way shot.

20.45 BC TURF

It will be astonishing if Europe doesn't dominate here. Splitting a powerful quintet is tough, but after much debate I've finally settled for Sarafina and Sea Moon ahead of Midday, Await The Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey. The two are very different types physically, but Sarafina has a rasping turn of foot when on song and Sea Moon is a striking looker who appealed as every inch a Group 1 colt when blitzing a smart field in York's Great Voltigeur. Backing one and saving on the other looks the safe call here. It could be tight, but Sarafina is easily forgiven her Arc defeat from a bad draw and she edges the main vote in a race where the Euros could easily go 1-2-3-4.

Conclusion: Sarafina and Sea Moon to shine

21.25 BC JUVENILE

Now we're talking. Uncle Mo set the day alight when bolting up in this last year and Union Rags can do likewise based on his commanding success in Belmont's Champagne Stakes. This colt shrugged off traffic problems in brilliant style when storming clear in Belmont's Champagne Stakes and no juvenile has taken the eye more in appearance this week. Of the rest, Middle Park winner Crusade looks a suspect stayer, while Creative Cause impressed in the Norfolk but suffered a late scare when kicked at exercise on Thursday. Daddy Long Legs could be the one to keep an eye on at a price given his freewheeling style and dirt pedigree, but Union Rags looked the real deal at Belmont and could produce something memorable here.

Conclusion: Union Rags to dominate

22.07 BC MILE

The heart says Goldikova. And so does the pocket, with a very healthy saver on Courageous Cat. Little more needs saying about Goldi other than that she is perfectly suited to American conditions and has looked as good as ever recently, despite a couple of defeats against formidable European rivals. If Strong Suit wins this from a wide draw I will pay out with a smile, while Byword is probably better over slightly further and Turallure will probably get too far behind to land a blow. My old ally Gio Ponti will run his usual cracker and looks solid for a place, but Courageous Cat ran Goldi to half a length in this two years ago and returns right at the top of his game. He's just too big a price at double figure odds and, if the star of the show falters in any way, he appeals as the one to take advantage.

Conclusion: Goldi and the Cat to rise to the top again

23.00 BC CLASSIC

Now and again there is nothing wrong with letting heart rule head. And I suspect I will do just that when So You Think bids to end Coolmore's relentless pursuit of America's richest racing prize on his first run on dirt. Put simply, this ex-Aussie bruiser has more than enough ability to go very close indeed if he copes with dirt. Even those closest to him can't be sure if he will, but there has never been a better time to take a crack at the Classic given that this year's American crop looks far from vintage and that Uncle Mo looks a suspect stayer.

Conclusion: So You Think.....and now you know

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