Glorious Goodwood / Simon Rowlands / 28 July 2009 /

Simon Rowlands offers up some compelling evidence to help you make the right bets on the big Friday race where the draw is all important...

The Totesport Mile Handicap at Goodwood on Friday has the reputation of having one of the strongest draw biases in the calendar. Three of the last 10 editions have been won by the highest-drawn horse, and last year's event saw a remarkable 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in correct order for the five highest-numbered stalls.

Some sort of bias is what you would expect, given that the race is run on a right-handed turning mile (with those drawn in the highest-numbered stalls nearest the inside and having a shorter distance to travel) with up to 20 runners. It all makes sense.

I would not, therefore, be telling most of you anything you did not know already if I just left it at that. And what use is it anyway to say "a high draw is advantaged" if it is not made clear to what degree this is the case? Should punters back stall 20 this week at any price? What price would be "fair"?

So, I had a look in greater depth, using some of the principles already mentioned on these pages and considering the last 10 runnings of the race. The crucial thing to remember is that if there is a bias it should affect not just winners but losers, and also the degree to which they win and lose.

Due to the smallish sample, the outcomes are not as smooth as they might be, but taking average cumulative lengths beaten by stall number, rounded to take into account the stall itself and the stall on either side, and then converted into pounds and from that odds, we get the following:

Stall Disadv in lb Fair odds

20 0.52 7.8
19 3.22 13.3
18 2.36 11.2
17 3.76 14.8
16 0.00 7.0
15 1.41 9.3
14 2.09 10.6
13 3.87 15.2
12 6.96 28.0
11 8.03 34.6
10 10.76 59.7
9 9.47 46.2
8 8.03 34.6
7 10.08 52.2
6 11.58 70.3
5 13.04 94.0
4 10.79 60.0
3 10.48 56.4
2 12.79 89.4
1 14.05 114.7

The "fair" odds are derived from the methods of converting ratings to odds used in another discussion on these pages. If you knew nothing whatsoever about the horses concerned other than their draw, you would say that there is approximately a 77% chance of the winner coming from the top eight stalls and a 23% chance of it coming from the bottom 12 stalls. With that in mind, it does seem prudent to wait until the draw is known before backing anything towards the front of the market.

Then again, you might fancy a speculative punt on something at longer odds in the belief that they would shorten markedly if they were to get a good draw, or a lay of one or two nearer the front who arguably would not deserve to be much shorter even if they got lucky with the draw.

At the same time, I looked at the performances by age and by weight in this race. The former shows a bias towards younger horses (something which is in evidence with many handicaps at this time of year), while there is a still smaller apparent advantage to horses weighted between 7-13 and 8-8:

Age Disadv in lb
3 0.0
4 2.7
5 2.8
6 5.3
7+ 9.9

Weight Disadv in lb

9-7 and more 4.0
9-0 to 9-6 2.9
8-9 to 8-13 2.1
8-4 to 8-8 0.0
7-13 to 8-3 0.8
up to 7-12 1.9

The draw for Friday's race will be made on Wednesday. My suggestion is that, as always, you regard the claims of the runners on their individual merits, but that you take the above into account, in particular the compelling evidence of the draw.
...

Before that race is run, there are plenty of top-class races to get excited by, perhaps none more so than the BGC Sussex Stakes at 3:25 on Wednesday. Rip Van Winkle heads the market at 2.66, followed by Ghanaati at 3.2 and Paco Boy at 4.5. The claims of the first- and last-named seem rock solid to me, but I am less keen on those of Ghanaati.

She has looked very good against her own sex, running in strongly run races on very fast ground. But her form still leaves her with a bit to find, and circumstances could be a fair bit different now. She looks worth a lay, both for a win and a place, in my book.

You could also do a lot worse, I believe, than side with Brae Hill in the 7f Heritage handicap at 4:35 on Thursday. The Michael Bell-trained colt posted a good timefigure when winning impressively at Chester a month ago, runs off just 5 lb higher here, and has the not insignificant bonus of having a draw in stall 15 of 16.

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