Goodwood Betting: In-running tips for day three

Glorious Goodwood / Jack Houghton / 30 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Jack Houghton on the in-running plays and lays for Thursday's Channel 4 races from Glorious Goodwood.

2.15pm

Many will latch on to Folk Opera as a back-to-lay proposition here and it looks likely she'll trade lower than her predicted pre-race odds of around [4.0]. However, Miracle Seeker and Queen Of Naples have both had some success dominating and I'd be worried that Dettori will get hassled upfront.

This race will have plenty of time to develop and the best in-running play might be to watch for a fast pace upfront and concentrate on the likes of Hi Calypso and Samira Gold. Both are habitual slow starters and will be running on if the (too-fast) pacesetters begin to tire.

Queen of Naples has looked a complicated ride and I wouldn't trust her in a tight finish.

2.50pm

As advised in the Molecomb Stakes on Tuesday, money can be made by opposing horses locked up in a downhill duel over five furlongs at Goodwood. Jargelle and Rievaulx Wood both traded short after fast starts, but were ultimately beaten by better-paced rivals.

Over the same course and with 70 per cent of the field confirmed front/prominent runners, I would be pretty confident of profit by simply offering to lay the entire field at [2.5]. However, a more selective approach of laying those at the front of affairs at different times (and backing those held up) will likely bring bigger profits.

3.30pm

At his predicted pre-race price of around [1.73], Yeats looks like value to me. However, even better value could be extracted by waiting to back the horse in-running. Although Yeats travelled imperiously when winning this race in record time in 2006, he looks a bit more wily these days. He traded at [4.5] in-running (Betfair SP of [2.5]) during his Ascot Gold Cup win, despite going on to win it by the longest margin of any of his three victories in the race to date.

Some might see him as an ideal lay-to-back proposition on this basis, but I would simply split my stake and have half on pre-race and put up a back in-running at around [3.0] in the hope it gets matched.

4.05pm

A very tight and competitive handicap with lots of pace throughout the field. Hawaas will probably be very popular with punters. He's having only his third run and looks to be a fast improving horse. However, his two wins have come when racing prominently and I'd be worried that he goes too fast too early. If Greg Fairley holds him up, I'd be a backer; if he gets him involved upfront, I'd be a layer.