Glorious Goodwood / Jack Houghton / 29 July 2008 /

Jack Houghton on the in-running plays and lays for Tuesday's Channel 4 races from Glorious Goodwood.

2.15pm: Despite a field of 18, there is only one confirmed front-runner in the field: Luberon. Third at Ascot on Sunday, he steps back down two furlongs and so it's likely he'll be made use of. Probably available at around [10.0] pre-race, he should trade shorter in-running and represents a good back-to-lay proposition.

Connections have experimented with Championship Point front-running with some success. He's won two races out of the three he's led, compared to not finishing higher than midfield when held-up. Were he to get an easy lead, his likely pre-race price of around [20.0] would look generous.

Those keen on laying horses in-running who struggle in the early stages should avoid Humungous. Like his father, he doesn't always travel well but has a habit of running on. Anyone who fancies Humungous would likely get bigger odds in-running than his predicted [15.0] pre-race.


2.50pm: A small field and no confirmed front-runner, this race will likely reward jockey intelligence: an oxymoron if ever there was one. Bouguereau and Donegal have both had success, admittedly in weaker races, when racing prominently, and could upset the market leaders if allowed to set a slow pace upfront. There is no obvious in-running play as such, but I'll be watching the pace of the leader and backing any horse with a soft lead.


3.30pm: The race (and for many, the whole day's punting) revolves around whether the step back down to seven furlongs can see Infallible win. She travelled well in the 1,000 Guineas and at Ascot the race after but seemed unable to fully stay the mile on either occasion. Back at Newmarket last time she traded at short odds entering the dip before being caught and passed by Nahoodh.

Questions of stamina are rarely as straightforward as some make out. Infallible could just as easily have tenacity issues as much as a stamina shortfall, and I'll be looking to lay her at odds-on in-running in the expectation she'll trade artificially short again.

I was also going to put up confirmed front-runner Dunelight as a back-to-lay proposition, but the presence of King Of Dixie and Racing Forever, who have both led at times in their careers, means he's not certain to get it easy upfront.

Stimulation has looked hard to steer on occasions and I wouldn't be taking any short prices on him in a tight finish.


4.05pm: It's foolish to make pronouncements in two-year-old races where the field are still grappling with immaturity and greenness and so I won't. But it's wise to look for horses locking up in duels too early on this downhill five furlongs and opposing them in-running.

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