Glorious Goodwood: In-running tips for day five

Glorious Goodwood / Jack Houghton / 01 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Jack Houghton on the in-running plays and lays for Saturday's Channel 4 races from Glorious Goodwood.

2.15pm

At likely odds of around [16.0], many will see Bencoolen as a tailor-made back-to-lay proposition. Cheekpieces lit him up last time when winning at Warwick and first time visors in this race will likely do something similar. However, with six other horses having had success from the front in the past (and four of them fancied this time round), it is highly unlikely he'll get things easy upfront and I can't see him trading shorter in-running.

A safer bet for me is a split stake on Deep Winter on anything bigger than [5.5] pre-race, and I'll also look to get matched at around [7.5] in-running. A likely frenetic pace will suit this horse: he's flexible in terms of tactics and is best in on my adjusted ratings.

2.50pm

A lot to say for a relatively small field. Meeriss and Alfathaa have both wanted to lead in the past and may complicate things up front for rightful favourite River Proud. Alexandros has looked a bit soft to me and I'd be opposing him in a scrap. Duntulm has had steering issues; as has one of the other market principals, Stubbs Art. In fact, there have to be doubts about the Guineas' third in general. True, he's competed well in strong races, but has to date only won a six-runner 2yo handicap.

I can't have Perfect Stride at his current price of [3.5] - the form just isn't there - and will be looking to back River Proud in-running if he settles well in the stalls and doesn't get hounded too much up front. If both those things happen, [4.0] would be value.

3.30pm

Lush Lashes looks a solid back-to-lay proposition. Provided she has recovered from her Ascot exertions, she is all but guaranteed to travel well and punters should be able to get out at odds-on.

4.05pm

I've had a lot of success this week in the terrestrial television sprints by opposing horses who have set a fast pace upfront. It's hard to know when to go against them, but the practice of laying the entire field at [2.5] in-running has proved profitable across the week, although those of you taking a more selective approach would have done even better.

The hypothesis has been that jockeys tend to go too fast on the predominantly downhill sprint, trade artificially short in-running, then tire in the final uphill furlong.

I'll delve into some statistics after this week to see whether the hypothesis matches reality, but in the meantime I'm happy to continue the practice that's worked in the sprints so far. In the Stewards' Cup, I'm expecting at least two horses to trade odds-on in-running.