Glorious Goodwood Betting / Graham Cunningham / 29 July 2009 / Leave a comment

Yeats stays in Ireland, so the spotlight turns to a 12-year-old hurdler who has taken on a new lease of life on day three of Glorious Goodwood. Can the redoubtable Caracciola strike another blow for the equine pensioners in the Goodwood Cup? Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham assesses his chances and picks out the best angles on the supporting card.

"I do suspect punters will use Caracciola’s advancing years against him in the Goodwood Cup, but it would be dangerous to do so given the zest he showed at York and Ascot."

2.10

The first point to make is that this is another extremely difficult Goodwood handicap. And the second point is that Roman Republic each way looks as good a call as any.

Mark Johnston's colt finished behind Mirrored at Ascot and Sandown, but he ran well in defeat on each occasion and progressed again over ten furlongs in the hot Newmarket handicap won by Firebet last time.

Mirrored is plainly a danger again on his first attempt at this trip, while Hyades and Sandor also have plenty to recommend them. The freewheeling Fastnet Storm offers back to lay potential based on his decisive Pontefract success, but Roman Republic's form looks a little more solid and he gets the main vote.

2.45

Another real headscratcher and it would come as no surprise to see at least a couple of longshots run much better than their prices suggest. There will be no fancy prices about Ialysos after his Sandown win, but he found a dream seam up the far rail there and a Group 3 penalty promises to make life harder.

Dual Group 1 winner Kingsgate Native is very hard to assess after disappointing on his first run since an abortive spell at stud, while Inxile is smart and speedy but didn't quite run up to expectations at the Curragh last time.

Borderlescott is a proven Goodwood warrior who has finished first, second and third in three Stewards' Cups and he looks very solid for the places at least after overcoming trouble in running at Chester.

He's sure to give his all as usual, but it's also worth delving among the big prices here and Reverence catches the eye as a very sporting outsider. Granted, Eric Alston's gelding is hardly getting any better aged eight, but he has shown plenty of dash of late and his latest effort off a mark of 102 in a hot Ayr handicap was very praiseworthy.

Further rain would be a plus and he's the sort to run much better than his long odds with Eddie Ahern back aboard for the first time since his very early days.

3.25

When you haven't got a clue it's usually best to 'fess up. And I really don't have much idea what will happen here in the absence of the mighty Yeats.

I do suspect punters will use Caracciola's advancing years against him, but it would be dangerous to do so given the zest he showed at York and Ascot. Godolphin were adamant that Schiaparelli would need the race in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket. He's plainly a big player if his stamina holds out, while stablemate Friston Forest went very close to beating Caracciola at York and is another player if he puts a subdued run last time behind him.

Askar Tau is a potential improver this year now his stable are back in form, but I suspect you have twigged what my conclusion on this year's Goodwood Cup will be. In short, it's tread warily.

4.00

This hardly looks a vintage contest by Group 3 standards and one or two of the main form contenders have yet to prove they are fully effective at this trip.

Cassique Lady falls into the latter category, but I suspect she will stay and her battling defeat of Princess Taylor and subsequent winner Lady Jane Digby gives her sound prospects here.

Starfala is another whose stamina is unproven. I suspect she might come up just short, while Irish raider Suailce certainly stays but usually struggles to find acceleration when it matters most.

In summary, Cassique Lady looks the best of the main form contenders, but my angle in here revolves around taking the best price possible about Victoria Montoya with a view to trading out at around [3.5] in running.

Granted, Andrew Balding's filly has something to find on the figures, but she's reliable and progressive with a good cruising speed. She's bound to be ridden close to the pace back at this slightly shorter trip and I'll be disappointed if she doesn't trade at much shorter than her current odds when things get serious halfway up the home straight.

Tags: Glorious Goodwood Betting, Graham Cunningham, Horseracing betting, The Goodwood Cup