Glorious Goodwood Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 29 July 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle brings you all the pre-race news and post-race reaction on day two of Glorious Goodwood. Follow him live as the afternoon unfolds and email your comments and questions to: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

2.05pm
Sweetheart has been heavily punted in the first - the 2m5f contest. She's been tipped by virtually everybody. A fiver was matched at [18.5] but Jamie Poulton's mare is now trading at half that. It's a considerable punt, but it's difficult to oppose Swingkeel, the favourite. The gelding is form the same family as Prix Du Cadran winner Invermark, so he should be able to last home the marathon trip if breeding is any guide. It's not always a good guide though is it?

But surely the value is with last year's winner, Baddam? Ian Williams's stable is in decent form, and Baddam is just 1lb higher in the weights that when winning this by a length last year. Just because he flunked out last time at Ascot means nothing. Royal Rebel was a complete disgrace before he won his second Gold Cup a few years back. These stayers know what they like, and Baddam likes it here. Who wouldn't?

1.45pm
Lunch yesterday was a wonderful fish pie. This afternoon it was a god awful pasta bake. They've tried to overcompensate by offering the press corps a glass of Veuve Clicquot, but I've a sneaking suspicion the chef has been changed. No matter. It's free, and you can never complain about a free lunch.

Staying with Mel Collier, the former Pricewise guru, he has summed up the 4pm with a clarity that most tipsters can only dream of. Basically, the Sir Mark Prescott favourite - Braveheart Move - is too short for what he has achieved and he is looking elsewhere.

He's tipped Norwegian Dancer at 20-1 (it's trading at a massive [36.0] on Betfair), although the reason that he outlines were not the reasons that I backed it for. If you look at this race, much like yesterday's handicap won from the rear by Toomanyriverstocross, there is a lot of pace. Norwegian Dancer is a hold up performer and drawn in stall two, he can be held up with great effect.

1pm
I've had a go at cracking the 4pm. No sponsors names here. Mel Collier, who used to be Pricewise in the Racing Post before the great Seagull, has come up with a potentially rewarding stat for this race. Andrew Balding's three-year-old handicappers have a 40 per cent strike-rate in July. That's 15 runners, six winners and only three horses out of the placings.
With such an awesome level of form, surely his Chiberta King must be on any shortlist for this race, no?

12.30pm
E-mail from Max. "Your English is appalling. It is 'I am sitting', not 'I am sat'. No-one put you there. Come on."
I fired one back saying that the good Lord put us here. I haven't heard back.

The straw poll about which of the big three in the Sussex Stakes is going to finish out of the first three - if any- came down to Rip Van Winkle. Almost half of you reckoned on the Aidan O'Brian colt missing the places, including yesterday's sage, Derek. "He's still not even a confirmed runner," writes Delboy. "He hasn't won this season, and has contested races over a mile, 12 furlongs and the Derby. He won't know what's going on."

Dave can't have him either. He writes: "I hope RPW runs. He sets up the market for the other two, which I fancy. Ghanaati broke the track record at Ascot, which was faster than Mastercraftsman's time in the St James's Palace, and faster than Paco Boy. What more do you want?"

Indeed David. I'm with you all the way.

12.15pm
I'm sat next to Tanya Stevenson, Channel Four's betting analyst, here in the press room. She's a bit worn out after going to Hove dogs last night after racing. Jeez. I went back to Bracklesham Bay and swum in the Channel. Different strokes, I suppose.

Anyway, Tanya is keen to back Club Tahiti in the 5.10pm. "I said on air that Club Tahiti was the horse to take out of that Newbury race," she recalled. "They quietly backed it, so I watched it carefully. It's got to have a great chance."

Being the 'female' on Channel Four, it was hardly surprising that she picked a filly in the Sussex Stakes this afternoon. I almost spat out my Hildon 'delightfully still' water though, when she said she was backing Lahaleeb in the big Group 1.

"I'm probably mad, but I reckon the big three can't all run well. I'm backing the Channon horse for a place. One of the big three will bomb, and she's good enough to beat the others."

Lahaleeb is [5.9] on Betfair to place at the moment.

If you discount Ghanaati, Paco Boy and Rip Van Winkle, I reckon Lord Shanakill is the best of the rest. He's got proven Group 1 form over a mile, and his third to Mastercraftsman in a decent time in the St James's Palace Stakes is certainly better than any of the rags in my view. Now trained by Alan Jarvis after the whole Karl Burke debacle, the Dewhurst runner-up looks value at [3.45] if you think one of the big three is going to bomb out.

If you do think one of Ghanaati, Paco Boy or Rip Van Winkle will be out of the first three, e-mail me which one and we'll do a straw poll in half an hour. theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

Good morning team and welcome to the second day of Glorious Goodwood. It's pretty blustery up here on the downs and although there is a blanket of grey cloud around, it's pretty dry. It rained where I was staying, the delightful seaside village of Bracklesham, so I thought Ghanaati's chances in today's Sussex Stakes were scuppered. Not so. Clerk of the course Seamus Buckley outlined that there was no rain up here last night and although the going description is 'Good', Goingstick freaks will know that the going is actually drying out. It was 8.3 before racing yesterday. It is 8.6 today.
There are showers forecast for this afternoon, or the early evening, so if you haven't got stuck in to the betting of the big Group 1 yet, wait until just before the race.

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle's Live Goodwood Blog, Glorious Goodwood betting, Horseracing betting, Paco Boy, Rip van Winkle, The Sussex Stakes