Glorious Goodwood Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 28 July 2009 / Leave a comment

As five Glorious days of racing get underway in Sussex, Geoffrey Riddle is at Goodwood to bring you all the pre-race news and post-race reaction. Follow him live as the afternoon unfolds and email your comments and questions to: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5.45pm result
1: Lowdown
2: Red Badge
3: George Benjamin
Time: 1.12.35
It's all about experience guys. Calvin sent out the warning signal to all of us and he is probably laughing to himself with a Gin and Tonic in hand. Aetos never really got into it, and Greg Fairley used the rail well on Lowdown. The front two look a cut above the rest as they pulled seven lengths clear of the field.

It's been a wonderful first day guys, especially in this new-look design. I hope you enjoyed today's blog and that you made some money. I'm off to the Welldiggers in Petworth now to have a go at their ales. If you are coming down here this week, you really should give it a try. Great food, good ales, and a real racing vibe. See you tomorrow at 11am for a Ghanaati masterclass.

5.27pm:
Aetos stands firm at around the [5.0] mark and isn't budging. Marcus Tregoning's runner is 7-2 on course.

Calvin has done his work for the day and is packing up. He's fired his final broadside, however, and reckons Aetos is a lay win and place. Fortune favours the bold, I suppose.
"Forget Aetos guys," says Derek. The wise sage who was on earlier. "It's all about the favourite. Second to Nideeb, who won so well at Ascot last time. Mark Johnston's horses are in good form and it'll take a decent performance first time out to match that sort of form."
Thanks Del. Calvin is not the only one leaving. Scores of journalists are fleeing before the lucky last. Unbelieveable. I won't leave you guys.

5.10pm result:
1: Marajaa
2: Mr Dee Bee
3: The Which Doctor
4: Salient
More mess. It was incredible to see jockey Chris Caitlin weave his way through the pack. He got to the front inside the final furlong and chinned my selection Mr Dee Bee. The runner-up traded at [1.91] in-running, though, so I hope some of you got out.

4.45pm
I really fancied Mull Of Killough, so I'm slightly peeved the Spearing horse has gone lame. Not as peeved, obviously, as the trainer, but nevertheless.
Firebet's run in the Gordon Stakes highlights the merits of Mister Dee Bee in the 5.10pm. He's drawn well in 15 (remember what Derek said everyone) and he's a presser so should be up with the pace in a handy position. Mister Dee Bee ran fourth to Firebet at the July meeting. That's good enough for this.

We backed Mujood at the July meeting at 25-1, but he couldn't quite land a blow and eventually finished third. Numerous industry figures fancy him today, but he'll be locked in a hell of a battle for the lead in this.

Aetos watch: Greg writes: "He's come in from [5.0], after Finjaan's win, and is now [4.5]. He'll get shorter I reckon." It is a little-known fact that around 80% of all trade on races on Betfair comes in the last 15 minutes. We'll wait guys.

As for trainer Marcus Tregoning, Finjaan's earlier success was just his fourth of the season, after a rheino virus shut down his yard. Watch out for his runners over the next week, though. Tregoning's predecessor, Major Dick Hern, loved to have winners at Goodwood, and Tregoning is no exception. "Goodwood is one of my favourite places to win a race," he said. "The horses have come right in time. I knew it would come right in the end if the owners stood by me and gave me a chance."
Tregoning expressed his anguish during this difficult period. He continued: "It has been worse than a nightmare. The problems started in May and it couldn't have been worse."

4.35pm result:
1: Manyriverstocross
7: Precision Break
9: Drill Sergeant
Time: 3m 1.19
Well those two came from a long way back didn't they! Precision Break was matched at [75.0] and Manyriverstocross was matched in-running at [12.0]. I latched onto the wrong one unfortunately...

4.20pm
Everyone seems to be bandying about the stat about Mark Johnston and Luca Cumani in the next race. They have won six of the last seven Summer Stakes between them. The stat I would like to chuck out there, however, is that three of the last four winners carried 10st. This is a race for the classier type, although it must be mentioned that Scott's View won this off a feather weight in 2002.

There are also a lot of horses who like to make all. Cool Strike, off bottom weight, has forced the paced in the past, as has Hindu Kush to the likes of Yeats in the Gold Cup. Candle is another, as is the three-year-old Quai D'Orsay, and the pressers like Yes Mr President and Drill Sergeant are likely to ensure that there is no hanging around here.

I think this is an in-running play. You've got to judge whether they have gone off too fast in this 1m6f contest, and back a hold up horse on the drift. Godolphin's Sugar Ray may not be the most likely gelding to last home, but Frankie Dettori can switch him off out the back and let rip as he flies down the hill. Hindu Kush would be of interest surely, if he didn't have to lead from the front.

4pm result:
1: Monsieur Chevalier
2: Mister Manannan
3: Archers Road
Time: 58.24
Thank the lord no-one put a gun to my head and I didn't have to lay Monsieur Chevalier. He was sheer class. He scythed through the field, cutting down everything with his tremendous turn of foot and went through on the outside of Star Rover in impressive fashion.

4.01pm
Can we realistically get Monsieur Chevalier beat in the Molecomb? I'm not sure, but put a gun to my head, and I'm probably a layer. The ten day turnaround from his Newbury exertions must be the only chink in his armour. You could perhaps add to that it has been a busy season for the Richard Hannon-trained colt.

He's beaten five of his rivals already, but Reignier finished ahead of him in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. I know it was fortunate, because Monsiuer Chevalier suffered a bit of argy-bargy in the 'messy' race. But I just have this nagging feeling Reignier put in a creditable performance there. Six furlongs looked too far last time out at Newmarket, and he's a massive price at [15.0].

Stats punters should perhaps consider Totally Invincible, the only filly in the line-up. The Molecomb was restricted to fillies only up until 1980. They continue to hold their own however, with 14 fillies successful since 1981, including Hoh Magic, who subsequently won the Prix Morny, and Carmine Lake, who went on to win the Abbaye on Arc day. Enticing and Fleeting Spirit also won it for the younger generation of punters on this blog. She's [29.0].

4pm
Let's set up the Aetos watch, Marcus Tregoning's unraced two-year-old in the lucky last. He has been heavily punted today, and after the run by Finjaan, he may well shorten even further. A watching brief is needed.

Poor old Richard Fahey is the first trainer to bleat this week about 'a messy race." What's the spread of how many trainers come up with this line over the next five days? I reckon 21-22?

Anyway, Fahey said after Firebet's run in the Gordon stakes: "We have to be pleased with that run but it was a messy race. The horse relaxed but there was a muddling pace and Paul said he ended up where he didn't want to be from stall one."

Fahey outlined the Great Voltigeur at York as Firebet's next assignment.

Fresh from his rant on satellite television at the weekend about 48 hours declarations, Mark Johnston was next in the queue to brand the Gordon Stakes as a 'messy race." He said: "That was a mess of a race and it staggers me that you can have some of the top jockeys in the country playing silly buggers early in the race, going at a canter.

"They should have got on with the job rather than this farcical thing with them all playing cat and mouse. We were more than justified in stepping up to this and the favourite won so perhaps that's how it should have been anyway."

Ouch.

3.25pm result
1: Finjaan
2: Balthazaar's Gift
3: Regal Parade
Time: 1.26.46
Marcus Tregoning strikes once again. He was angled out nicely in the final two furlongs and he won that very comfortably in my opinion. Layers were in clover though weren't they? The front two beaten.

3.05pm
Understandably, Main Aim has shortened slightly after the Stoute-Moore double act in the previous race. I thought he was banker material earlier in the day, but those comments by Mike De Kock (see 1.30pm) have certainly made me think twice. Ouqba impressed me at Royal Ascot, and I'm increasingly coming around to Finjaan's chances, too. Oh lord. I'm losing confidence already. And there is nothing worse than losing your punting confidence on the first day of five now is there...

2.55pm
That was Sir Michael Stoute's seventh Gordon Stakes, which makes him the most successful trainer of that race. Harbinger is now 4-1 favourite with Stan James for the St Leger at Doncaster in September. He's trading at [6.0] on Betfair now, in a market which boasts little confidence in any other runner. For instance, Stan James go 5-1 Golden Sword, whereas you can get the Derby fifth at around [14.5] on Betfair.

2.45pm result
1: Harbinger
2: Firebet
3: Urban Poet
Time: 2.39.98secs
"Never take too much notice of the early market," says Tony Calvin. I must add, he said this before the race. Harbinger drifted like a barge, but the in-from combination of Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute must not be ignored, I suppose.

2pm result:
1: Drumfire
2: Sweet Lightning
3: Royal Destination
Time: 2m. 06. 92
Congratulations Sam. Drumfire won that well, but Sweet Lightning finished with an absolute rattle there. Remember, Goodwood is like that, so be careful backing it next time out. Australia Day folded like a cheap bit of origami when Hughsie put him under any sort of pressure. I was disappointed that he didn't trade shorter than [6.0]. Congratulations, too, Derek.
Alfathaa came sixth, I think, so all those who binned him for a place have started with a win.

The Gordon Stakes provides the biggest bet of the day for me. Masterofthehorse. I find it incredible that he is not favourite for this. If he was still in the hands of Aidan O'Brien he would be a solid 6-4 at the very most. Just because he has been bought by a Qatari, with the firm intention to run in Qatar, he is not suddenly a poor racehorse. And it is not as if there is confidence in Harbinger, the favourite, who has drifted from [2.16] to his current price of [3.45].

Favourites have won the last three runnings. Does that really matter? I used to have an appalling record in the Derby. I had five straight bets on it and lost. My first bet in the race was Dushyantor in 1996, who finished second. I have also backed Silver Patriarch (1997), City Honours (1998), Sakhee (2000), Golan (2001). The link between all of those horses? They finished second at Epsom. So I took a break in 2002. I didn't have a bet. So when it came to 2003, if I had looked at my stats, and seen that I had backed five bridesmaids, I wouldn't have backed High Chaparral at 7-2, when he won it. Or Sir Percy at 25-1 almost four years to the day after he won the Vintage Stakes here. So you see, I reckon those sort of stats should be used sparingly. For what it is worth, the favourite has won this race 26 times out of 63 runnings. That's 41%.

2pm
Ten minutes before the first race. I've doubled up on Australia Day despite what Derek said. I intend to trade out in-running instead, thanks to his wise words. I suppose there is no helping some people Derek.

"Drumfire looks well treated on his fourth in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes behing Conduit doesn't he?", asks Sam. I believe he does. His third to Unnefer at Lingfield in May in a fast time looks pretty useful, too Sam. I wouldn't put you off.
Lang Shining is yet another horse in this race who has run appallingly here in the past. Sir Michael Stoute's runner finished last of 18 on his only start here. Is there anything that will beat Australia Day, Drumfire or Sweet Lightning? I think I might go for the Tricast.....

There has been significant support for the Marcus Tregoning horse in the lucky last. Aetos is the name. Matched at [15.0] and now trades at [5.5]. A monster gamble. If that gamble means anything at all it means that Tregoning's horses are back in town, as suggested at Ascot last weekend. That would surely bring in Finjaan in the Betfair Cup? I mean the colt was Group 1 placed last season and is incredibly unexposed.

1.45pm
If one more person tells me that Goodwood is like "a garden party with racing tacked on," I think I will take the nearest tuba off the excellent military band, and shove their head down it. It is driving me crazy. And people say it in such a knowing way, as if they came up with the phrase. They didn't. King Edward VII did. I mean virtually no one has a garden as big as the grounds here anyway, and fewer still have the largesse to create such a wonderful atmosphere in their own backyard. How would they know? And what a rubbish phrase to use. It'd be better to use it in a different context. How about Jordan looks like a man with breast tacked on ... Email me at theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

1.30pm
Mmm. Fish Pie for lunch. Delicious, especially being so close to the sea. I'm not sure how fresh my Ocean Stick was though....

Oen thing to come out of lunch, apart from a hatred of the pink bit of Ocean Sticks, was that Mike De Kock was in Betfair's box, as was jockey Kevin O'Shea. The pair can't quite understand why their JJ The Jet Plane is such a big price for the Betfair Cup at 3.25pm. There was just a length between De Kock's runner and Main Aim in the July Cup, and yet Main Aim trades at [2.24], while JJ trades at [5.1]. It is a fair point, and one that punters who take that sort of value approach cashed in on when Fleeting Spirit got the better of Scenic Blast at Newmarket.

There is a strong headwind blowing at a slight angle towards the far side rail. It has tempered my confidence slightly in Australia Day in the first. You can easily imagine those hold-up horses sat in the slipstream, and as they come down the hill, they might motor past poor, brave Australia Day.
Derek's email doesn't help either. "Are you crazy? Australia Day? Drawn in stall one, Richard Hughes will have to track over to make the running. In the last 20 course and distance handicaps only four horses have won from a low numbered stall."

That's good info Derek. Thanks.

1pm
Calvin is crowing. Sweet Lightning has just edged favouritism in the first. He's claiming he has moved the market. I reckon it was me laying that Noseda horse.

James writes: "It's all very well telling us who isn't going to win the first race. I want to know who IS?" Patience Padawan. What's wrong with winning money, however, you do it James?

Alfathaa finished last of eight on his only start at Goodwood. He encountered trouble in running from off the pace in the Coral Challenge at Sandown on Eclipse weekend. He raced on the favoured stands side in the Royal Hunt Cup despite being drawn 16, but tracked over after missing the break. One win from ten starts. An unlucky horse is never what you want here, although Willie Haggas's gelding does have the benefit of being drawn ten of 14. He's got to be a place lay at [2.74].

Dona Alba is another with a shocking record here. From three runs at Goodwood, John Dunlop's filly has finished 11th from 13 last time out behind Red Merlin, 12th of 15 last year at this meeting, and fourth of 16 on her first racecourse start. The comments about her in the Racing Post on her latest start here read: "Didn´t settle well enough and could have done with a stronger pace. Her rider also reported that she hung right." Not a good omen.

Sorry James. What is going to win? I reckon Australia Day looks a big price. Australia Day beat Presvis last year by two and three-quarter lengths and gave that runner 10lbs. Presvis just so happens to be one of the best horses in the world over 10 furlongs at the moment. Fair enough Presvis has improved, and Australia Day got the run of the race, but it was still and impressive performance. Also, this nine furlongs will be perfect as he sometimes struggles to get an extended 10 furlongs, like at Sandown last time out. Stall one is not ideal, admittedly, but he has very little competition for the lead.

12.45pm
Staying with the first race, we've got to hope for Calvin's sake, that Sweet Lightning doesn't start as the jolly. Favourites don't have the greatest record in this contest. They have won 15 of the 63 runnings. Before you reach for the calculator, that's 24%. Fair enough, that equates to 3-1. Sweet Lightning is [7.4] and shortening.

Given this race is over 11 furlongs it is interesting to note that seven of the last ten races have been won by distances such as head, neck, and short-head. This is über competitive, and there should be several opportunities for in-running laying here.
One stat that is with Noseda's four-year-old is the age stats. Below is a list of the age of all the winners of this race down the years.

Age of winner of the 2.15pm.
3yo - 7
4yo - 35
5yo - 14
6yo - 5
7yo - 2

12.25pm
Tony Calvin, Betfair's communications man, looks rather smart today. Pinstripe suit, pink tie, nice watch He's usually a lot more bullish with his tips, though. He's been a bit cagey this morning. He's only got one today for us. "Sweet Lightning will go off favourite for the first, I reckon," he said just a moment ago. "I missed the 8-1 this morning, but I took the 7s," he continued. Not like TC to miss the best price. Still, sixth in the John Smith's Cup at York is surely enough for him to enter calculations and that favourite, Royal Destination, looks like another over-hyped Jeremy Noseda horse.

This blog is 1-1 laying Noseda hotpots in big handicaps. I was on the wrong end of Forgotten Voice's scintillating Royal Hunt Cup performance, but didn't learn from my mistake and binned Captain Brilliance with success at the July Meeting.

Royal Destination beat Cobo Bay last time. There were two pacemakers that cut each other's throats, and although Royal Destination won well, what did he beat?

Cobo Bay's best Racing Post Rating is 104, but that's not much to write home about. In short, Royal Destination didn't beat much, and although there is improvement to come, I'm keen to take him on. What's more, Forgotten Voice had Group 1 entries, this one doesn't.

High noon:
Good afternoon and welcome to the new-look, shinier, and generally wonderful betting.betfair racing blog. The Gremlins have been banished from whence they came, and hopefully, unlike the emperor's new clothes, there will be some substance behind the illusion.

I'm blogging live from Goodwood today, and the 'Glorious' bit is struggling to break through the heavy cloud cover overhead. What England would give to bowl at the Aussies at Edgbaston in the third Test under such conditions.

The Barry Hills team are holding their breath ahead of Ghanaati's historic bid to win the Group 1 Sussex Stakes tomorrow. The wonder filly clearly needs rattling fast ground, which is not the case at the moment at what is easily the most beautiful racecourse in the world. She's trading at [3.2] at the moment, behind the [2.68] about Rip Van Winkle.

Clerk of the course Seamus Buckley measured 7mm of rain at the track yesterday afternoon. The rain stopped at 5pm and a drop hasn't fallen since. We've got perfect 'good' ground here, and with the forecast to be clear today, the word 'firm' may creep in to the description by tomorrow.

The more professional punters among you may like to know that all race distances this afternoon are 15 yards longer than advertised. Don't be peturbed by your stop watches. There is a far side running rail installed from the six furlong marker on the lower bend to the finish line to provide a fresh strip for Thursday's racing. The top bend has been dolled off, too, increasing distances by around eight yards. That may not seem like a lot, but horses like South Cape and Woodcote Place in the 5.10pm, and Lang Shining in the first may well find that extra yardage beyond them.

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle, Glorious Goodwood Betting, Goodwood races, Horseracing betting, The Betfair Cup