Glorious Goodwood / Geoffrey Riddle / 31 July 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Geoffrey Riddle is still in the Glorious Goodwood hotseat after yesterday's three winning tips. Join him on day four of the five-day festival for all the pre-race news and post race reaction.Follow him live as the afternoon unfolds and email your comments and questions to: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com.

5.45pm result
1: Noble Storm
2: Mattamia
3: Green Beret
I'm glad I got out of La Zamora. She absolutely dropped like a stone through the field. A little saved. Mattamia made up a lot of ground tacked to the stands' side rail. Jockey James Millman absolutely flew at the finish. It must give Richard Fahey, trainer of Fishforcompliments, a little bit of hope in tomorrow's Steward's Cup. The horse is drawn on the rail in stall one.

Well apologies for today. It was a tough card and I'm pretty much back to where I was before yesterday's glut of winners. You're only as good as your last performance though, and tomorrow it's going to have to be a doozy.

5.35pm
There's been a gamble on La Zamora since I last posted. I backed it at [8.4] and [8.2], and it now trades at around [6.6]. I can't see why, despite what I wrote earlier. The Luijan filly is awash with sweat in the paddock, and her hind quarters are very warm. I might trade out. It'd be just my luck if she loses.

5.27pm
The lucky last, and don't I need it. I can't understand why La Zamora is such a big price. David Barron's filly beat Green Beret, Strictly and Brenin Taran last time out at Newmarket.

She's been put up 4lbs, but Dean Hislop takes off 5lbs. Ok, she may get a bit lost out wide from stall ten, but she should trade a lot shorter if she blazes a trail, as is her want. She looks a typical back-to-lay candidate.

5.10pm result:
1: Summer Fete
2: Select
3: Please Sing
That looked a funny result, with the exacta paying out over £300. I'm not sure what happened to the fancied runners, and it looked as if Penny's Gift didn't handle the track. She was also bumped by Golden Stream as the pair angled off the rail for a run. It didn't help that neither filly managed to get a handy position either.

4.50pm
"You haven't tipped anything for a while have you!" taunts Jonathan, with a clear reference to the fact that I've bottled it since the totesport Mile.

That because I'm struggling. This next race is not much fun either. I really fancied Penny's Gift, but jockey Richard Hughes might be taken on for the lead by Golden Stream and Greenisland.

It's not ideal. Golden Stream is probably more versatile with regards to how she runs, but Golden Stream and Penny's Gift are berthed in stalls four and three respectively. It's not going to be easy to track over to the far rail. Perhaps the hold-up horse San Sicharia could pinch it at the death? She ran a particularly fast time when she won at Lingfield. The only problem with her is her age. Seven of the last ten winners of this have been three-year-olds.

Ho Hum.

4.35pm result:
1: Black Snowflake
2: Gunner Lindley
3: Raine's Cross
4: Contract Caterer
Frankie put in a peach of a ride there on Black Snowflake, getting up right on the line to delight the crowd. He'll get all the adulation in the winners' enclosure. I think I have forgiven him now.

By the way, with regards to the Richmond Stakes, Bachir, sent out by Godolphin in 2000, was the last colt to follow up a win here with victory in the following season's 2,000 Guineas.

Perhaps Godolphin's Buzzword, who finished second, should be the one who you should take out of the race. A quarter of a mile out, the Windsor maiden winner was being angled out from the rail to chase the eventual winner Dick Turpin.

Unfortunately, Jamie Spencer slammed the door shut on Rakaan, which stopped Buzzword in his tracks. Frankie then continued down the stands' side rail to take second from Stargaze by a head.

Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor was happy with the run. "The horse ran a big race," he said in his typical staccato style. "The horse has ability and will improve for the race. He was running on in the last two furlongs - I know he was stuck between horses, but still, he will be better over further."

4.20pm
Richard Fahey, trainer of Johannes, the winner of the Stewards' Sprint earlier in the day, is adamant that the result of that race firmly crystallizes tomorrow's Stewards' Cup.

The Yorkshire trainer saddled three horses in today's sprint, and Johannes was his only runner drawn high, while champion jockey Ryan Moore rode Harrison George from stall three and Sunrise Safari was in stall 14.

"That puts it all to bed on that evidence," said Fahey. "There was plenty of pace drawn low, and Ryan said they went quick on his side. The far side was always in front though."

Fahey saddles Fishforcompliments, who is drawn in stall one, and Knot In Wood, who is drawn in gate 11, in tomorrow's big race. "We'll have to stick to the stands side and see what happens," he continued. "I'd have fancied Knot In Wood, who's in good form, but maybe Johannes can win it next year!"

4pm result:
1: Dick Turpin
2: Buzzword
3: Stargaze
Dick Turpin looked sensational in the paddock, and he confirmed his well being there with a through demonstration of his superiority. Richard Hannon has a hell of string of two-year-old hasn't he? Some of the high street firms are quoting the winner at 20-1. With Canford Cliffs residing at Everleigh, there's not much debate which one you'd prefer to be on though.
Godolphin's Buzzword finished well in second. I can't quite get a grip of their horses right now. They are pretty hit and miss.

3.45pm
I'm all over the place here. The confidence of yesterday is gone. Shot to pieces by poor decision making. I'm scratching about. Will Dick Turpin, the hot favourite, get me out of this mess?

Richard Hannon will know how good his colt is compared to Canford Cliffs, who Rakaan has gone down to twice in a blaze of glory. I say, glory, but that really isn't that true. Rakaan has finshed with a less than impressive attitude. He'll need to be held up here until the last minute by Jamie Spencer. If you are going to back Rakaan, perhaps it might be better in-running.

3.25pm result:
1: Laa Rayb
2: Spectait
3: Docofthebay
4: Webbow
5: Lovelace
6: Acrostic
7: Cloudy Start
I'm not bitter. I'm really not. How was Tom Queally to know he was carrying my money against the dastardly Cumani horse? Christophe Lemaire rode all the way to the line. Perhaps Queally didn't, although the sixth horse does get £1,755. Congratulations to whoever took my £50 on Betfair.

The draw stats seemed to be blown out of the water there. Laa Rayb was drawn in stall 8. Spectait in stall 16, Docofthebay in stall 3. Low is the new high.

3.20pm
I'm on Kavachi here. I have heard that the Gary Moore yard is very bullish about their six-year-old. He was dreadfully unlucky at Royal Ascot, when he was repeatedly bumped and met interference, and before that he beat Acrostic on merit at Sandown. He's drawn well, too, in stall 19, although he could easily meet with traffic problems once again.

"What about Court Masterpiece?", writes Ali. "He won the Group 1 Sussex Stakes a few years ago, and has won on three other occasions that he has run here. He is another horse who has come back from stud, much like Kingsgate Native in the Audi Stakes the other day."

It's certainly an interesting one Ali. Good luck.

3.15pm
The boring old draw stats have thrown up something very interesting on Betfair. Read Lee Mottershead's excellent draw analysis in today's Racing Post. Basically, of the 36 horses to have filled the first four places in the last nine runnings of the totesport Mile, only five have had single figure draws.

That's 13.8%. Now purely on a form basis you'd have Acrostic slightly ahead of Cloudy Start. You'd maybe bet 8-11 Acrostic v Evs Cloudy Start in a matchbet in a fair and even contest, say at Ascot. But Cloudy Start is berthed in stall 21, Acrostic housed in stall six. And yet, the matchbet on Betfair has Acrostic at around [2.0] and Cloudy Start at [1.9].

With those draw stats, you'd have to make Cloudy Start about [1.6], wouldn't you?

3pm
The first three home in the Stewards' Sprint Stakes emerged out of stalls 22, 19 and 24 in a 24-runner field. Remember also that David Nicholls chose the far side yesterday for his runners in the big-race draw. Something to chew over before the Stewards' Cup tomorrow.

The full updated betting from the bookies' representatives will be out in a few minutes. You'd have to fear for Markab's chances though, out of stall 13 in the middle of the track. Sonny Red has been backed immediately after today's sprint. He's 12s from 16s with several firms here. He's as short as [16.0] on Betfair at the moment. Striking Spirit has also been trimmed, although the mount of Ahmed Ajtebi is considerably bigger on Betfair than with the high street firms.

2.45pm result
1: Johannes
2: Northern Dare
3: Jaconet
4: Vhujon

2.30pm
Van Bossed has been heavily backed with the high street bookies. The David Nicholls runner has been matched at over [30.0] on Betfair, and now trades at [20.0] on the exchange. The David Nicholls runner is at the same rating as when he last won a race, a six furlong handicap at Ripon last season. He hasn't been running particularly well, but didn't do too badly on the wrong side at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham. He finished third on his side that day, and the Wokingham is naturally working out well. For those who are slightly of an older bent, the horse has been tipped by one-time tipping legend Henry Rix.

I'm still sweet on Parisian Pyramid though, and I leave the talking to David Nicholls to Chris, if he gets the sprint king on Timeform radio.

2.10pm result:
1: Illustrious Blue
2: Warringah
3: Halicarnassus
Well I can't say I'm very happy about that. Frankie Dettori must have had one too many Pimms or something. Chris, the Timeform radio man told me just before the race went off that he had done an interview with Simon Crisford, the Godolphin racing manager. In that interview, Crisford was pretty frank and said that the going was probably still too firm for the gelding, and that it is a bit of a nutter (Chris's words, not Simon Crisford's.). Tune in to Timeform radio if you can, it's very informative.
Anyway, I hope you weren't as trigger happy as I was and that you traded out of Warringah in-running and not before the race. You could have laid the Sir Michael Stoute runner at 1.34 in-running, a pretty good return.

I even traded out of my Crime Scene place lay. I got [2.56], which was fine, but I'm gutted. I don't usually talk oou of my pocket, but this is quite a lot to take in right now. The gelding trailed in last, once again here, and the tannoy system around the track has just asked for "trainer Saeed Bin Suroor." I'd put him in the stocks...

2pm
STOP PRESS!!
Just grabbed a word with Frankie Dettori himself, jockey of Crime Scene. It's not Goodwood's idiosyncratic undulations at all that is the problem. It is the GOING. "The last two times Crime Scene has run here it has been Good To Firm," said the confident Italian. "It's not the course that is a problem, he'll run well here. We'll see if he is good enough."
Cripes. I'd better trade out now...

1.50pm
Warringah continues to be backed. Sir Michael Stoute's horse was matched at [5.5] for any sort of money and now trades at around [4.9]. Crime Scene is on the drift, and anyone who laid the Godolphin runner earlier will be in profit already. Frankie's mount is now [2.18] to lay for a place. Confidence is not high.

The Reverse Forecast market is interesting and Warringah and my other fancy Basaltico are around [13.0] for finish in any order in the top two. The Tote are currently [25.3] for Warringah to beat Basaltico and 30.3 for Basaltico to beat Warringah.

1.45pm
I highlighted before lunch Graham Cunningham's blog on this website, and the revered tipster has put Parisian Pyramid's name into the hat in the 2.45pm sprint over six furlongs. Trained by sprint king David Nicholls, the three-year-old has been running in hot company, but not winning. It's not a combination that I generally like to support, particularly at this track. That said, the grey gelding is likely to get everything his own way drawn in stall four. I know it sounds ridiculous, but there is not a lot of pace in this race and drawn against the stands' side rail, Adrian Nicholls can bomb out and not see another soul until after the winning post.

Remember that the stands' side rail was where the first three home in yesterday's five-furlong Audi Stakes were drawn. Also in yesterday evening's lucky last, the winner, Blue Jack, powered through the field from stall five.

Parisian Pyramid is currently trading at [11.0].

12.55pm
Acrostic in the Totesport Mile at 3.25pm is another place lay, too, I reckon, but for different reasons to Crime Scene. For a start, jockey Christophe Lemaire has only ridden around Goodwood once. In that flying visit the Frenchman finished an inauspicious 13th of 14. Admittedly the horse was 25-1, but it does not bode well for Lemaire, especially as his mount is drawn in stall six.

I don't want to be drawn in to the dull subject of where you need to be placed in the starting stalls to win this, safe to say that if you read today's Racing Post, you can be in no doubt that your selection has to be drawn low to have a hope in hell of success in this race.

The great Segull says today in his Pricewise column: "Of the 40 horses to finish in the first five in the Totesport Mile in the last eight years, only nine have been drawn in stalls ten or lower."

Now there are no horses of the calibre of Forgotten Voice lurking in the low-drawn numbers, which could easily be a fair few pounds ahead of the field, so it makes sense that the horses drawn high are going to dominate this. I think [2.88] is a decent level to be laying Acrostic, despite the gelding's excellent form.

Our very own Graham Cunningham has outlined similar sentiments with regards to Crime Scene in his blog on here. The shrewd RUK man has tipped Webbow for the totesport Mile.

12.45pm
I have been looking at Frankie Dettori's rides today. Crime Scene in the opener looks particularly weak. If you look at his two runs at Goodwood they are absolutely laughable. I don't say that lightly either. Godolphin's big hope in the Glorious Stakes finished an enormous 57 lengths shy of the winner here on his latest start at the Sussex track a full 24 lengths of Sixties Icon on his first race around Goodwood's switchback. If that isn't a place lay at [2.2] I don't know what is. I appreciate that his form is top class, particularly behing Eastern Anthem in Dubai, but horses for courses is a well known saying for good reason.

Also, if you look at how the race will pan out, Sir Michael Stoute's Warringah is the only front-runner in the field. The vicious headwind that has predominated here for the last three days has died down slightly and Ryan Moore could easily poach this from the front.

I think the big danger could be Basaltico, of Luca Cumani's. He was a Listed winner in France and that form behing Vercity and yesterday's brave Goodwood Cup runner-up Mourilyan looks pretty solid. I might back it with Warringah instead of laying Frankie.

11.45pm
Good morning all and welcome to Betting.betfair's coverage of the fourth day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting. I struggled markedly to get out of bed this morning after spending a fair chunk of yesterday's winnings on a few snifters at the local public house. They used to sell the most wonderful pork scratching there as well. The cruchy pig delicacy used to come in a clear plastic bag straight from the local farm, and they were so 'organic' that there were still a few pig hairs adhering to them when you ate them.

Due to the interference of those pesky Europeans in Brussels, however, they have had to go for a commercial brand. I was given a horrid set of pork scratchings with my fine Sussex ale that resembled the sort of toe nails that John McCricrick might harbour in his shoes. Quite disgusting. The amount of E numbers in the ingredients list must be worse for me than an unregistered farm-produced collection, surely?

Back to racing matters. The clerk of the course Seamus Buckley has highlighted that the going is back to Good now, after the downpour yesterday dumped 4mms of rain on to the course. It is sure to ride slower though, but punters should be aware that the running rail that I mentioned on day one has been removed. A fresh strip of ground on the far side of the track where the high numbered-drawn horses will race has been provided. Watch the Stewards' Cup consolation race at 2.45pm for clues to tomorrow's big sprint.

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle, Glorious Goodwood betting, Glorious Goodwood Live Blog, Horseracing betting, The Coventry Stakes