GC's Weekend Racing Briefing: With double helpings of Derby bets!

Events / Graham Cunningham / 26 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's Derby weekend on both sides of the Irish Sea, with Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory lining up in Ireland and a number of good handicappers scrapping for the Pitmen's Derby at Newcastle. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has bets from both tracks.

Fame can get the Derby glory with or without Sea The Stars

Anyone writing about the Irish Derby two days ahead of time this year needs to address an either/or situation regarding Sea The Stars.

So here goes. If Sea The Stars doesn't line up on Sunday then Fame And Glory is the best bet.

And if Sea The Stars does line up at the Curragh then Fame And Glory is still the best bet - but this time at around twice the price.

The logic behind opposing John Oxx's Guineas and Derby hero has been well aired in recent weeks and centres around the possibility that his stamina could be put to a severe test if he gets in a race where the pace is demanding from start to finish.

And, whereas the early gallop at Epsom was sedate by Derby standards, the Ballydoyle posse will surely combine to serve up a much more daunting pace this time around.

Granted, if Sea The Stars truly does stay a mile-and-a-half thoroughly then opposing him again could prove folly. However, my faith in Fame And Glory remains unshaken after his fine Epsom second and the combination of a searching pace and a very stiff track could see him leave even his high-class Epsom form behind.

In short, I suspect that anything more than an odd shower might see Oxx head for next week's Eclipse rather than the Curragh with Sea The Stars.

I hope that isn't the case. Fame And Glory has a length-and-three-quarters to make up on Sea The Stars. That amounts to less than half a second. Can he do it given a more punishing early pace? I think he can.

* * *

Keenes and Wells the two to note as the Toon Army come out to play

If you have never been to Newcastle on Northumberland Plate day then you have missed a treat.

The local football club may have hit on hard times - and the racecourse is hardly thriving for that matter - but Plate Day in the Toon still has an atmosphere all its own and this year's card is as tough as ever.

The Plate itself (3.10) looks a desperately difficult puzzle, and a clean run can be very hard to find for those drawn wide and held up, but Keenes Day and Wells Lyrical head my short list.

Keenes Day found the combination of a coffin draw and two-and-a-half miles more than he could cope with in the Ascot Stakes last week, but he travelled powerfully for a long way and is almost certainly capable of much better back over two miles.

Wells Lyrical is nominated in the belief that he is the sort of progressive young stayer who hasn't shown his full hand to the handicapper. He certainly travelled like an improved horse on his Ripon reappearance and a low draw should enable him to get a good position from an early stage here.

Local trainers target the big supporting handicaps on Plate day well in advance and it's a fair bet that Michael Dods has had the totescoop6 Handicap (2.35) in mind for Barney McGrew for some while now.

The strapping six-year-old is plainly in peak form after a fine effort at Doncaster two weeks ago and, given that Newcastle's stiff six suits him very well, he looks to have a strong each way chance in a wide open handicap.

Backing horses to win Pattern races after lengthy layoffs can be a risky strategy, but even so War Artist and Ancien Regime look the key contenders for the Chipchase Stakes at 2.05.

War Artist ran several fine races against the best sprinters around last year and is bound for the July Cup if he comes up to scratch here, while Ancien Regime progressed really well for Michael Jarvis and is unlikely to be short of fitness on his first run for Godolphin.