Events / Graham Cunningham / 28 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

Graham Cunningham with betting insight from Aintree and Dubai in his regular Friday column

Luck of the Irish could count for plenty again at Aintree next week

One week to go and, bit by bit, the last drops of ante-post juice are being squeezed out of Betfair's Grand National market.

Of course, there is still time for gambles to develop - witness the bizarre late surge which saw Monkerhostin sent off 8-1 co favourite last year - but time is running short to identify a horse capable of going off much shorter than his current price.

So, it's cards on the table time. I've opposed Cloudy Lane at [8.0] on the basis that he is most unlikely to shorten further and backed Slim Pickings and King Johns Castle at [15.0] and [46.0] respectively.

I doubt I will hang onto all of the Cloudy Lane lay - after all, he is thrown in at the weights - but with 39 horses and 30 daunting fences to overcome it's essential that I keep him as a small loser in the book.

The case for Slim Pickings is simple and revolves around the fact that he ran a screamer for third last year and has been trained with a return to Aintree in mind ever since.

Indeed, he ran even better than the bare result suggests last season - when he was probably sent for home a shade earlier than ideal by Barry Geraghty - and another clear round will make him tough to keep out of the frame again.

King Johns Castle was a very interesting win and place bet at [40.0] plus, as he jumps accurately and showed improved form when upped to three miles in the Pierse Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Whether he is great value at [18.0] or thereabouts after the money came in floods for him in midweek is debateable, but it wouldn't surprise to see him shorten further if AP McCoy opts to ride him ahead of Butler's Cabin.

Of the rest, I am lukewarm on Bewleys Berry ([19.5]), Mr Pointment ([21.0]), Snowy Morning ([26.0]) and last year's runner-up Mckelvey ([26.0]), while Comply Or Die has clear claims after his impressive Eider Chase success but has halved in price to [14.0] after punters gradually cottoned on to his chance.

Simon ([16.5]) was tanking along when he fell on the second circuit last year. He has to be a strong contender again with the excellent Dominic Elsworth booked, while Chelsea Harbour ([25.0])and Patsy Hall ([48.0]) are two potential late springers in the market given the impressive recent record of Irish raiders at Aintree.

However, there comes a point at which you have to get off the fence as regards the National. I simply can't justify backing Cloudy Lane at current odds, but Slim Pickings, King Johns Castle, Simon and Patsy Hall form a short list which will surely give us something to shout about in the world's greatest steeplechase.

Curlin can light up the desert sky on World Cup night

An old school gambler like JP McManus would probably say that if you have the five you probably don't need the two.

But new wave heavy hitters like Harry Findlay might argue that the [1.4] about Curlin winning the Dubai World Cup is like finding money in the street.

Either way, the appearance of Steve Asmussen's mighty chestnut in the desert this weekend is soul food for those who love international Flat racing.

Racing Post chief correspondent James Willoughby feels Curlin's true price is nearer [1.25], while those who have seen the American raider at close quarters in Dubai this week talk of a presence which first struck me when I saw him in the paddock prior to the Breeders' Cup Classic last October.

Half the field on that bleak, stormy evening in New Jersey seemed fazed by the chaotic scenes in the tiny Monmouth paddock, yet Curlin ambled round like an old police horse before destroying what was widely regarded as the best field ever assembled for America's richest race.

This time the likes of Hard Spun, Street Sense and George Washington have been replaced by the ultra progressive home contender Jalil and battle hardened South African raider Asiatic Boy.
Make no mistake, they are good horses. But if Curlin brings his A game to Dubai - and all the signs suggest he has - then they will be mere bit players once push comes to shove in that demanding Nad Al Sheba straight.

Prize money debate is a riddle with no solution

Comparing the prize money on offer in Dubai this weekend with what Britain's minor tracks have to offer is little more than a bad joke.

Enough attention has already been given to the half baked boycott of Yarmouth this week, but before the subject goes cold again it's worth making a few final points.

First, any notion that the bottom rungs of racing's ladder will be cut away in the short term is pie in the sky. Second, there is precious little chance of the Levy providing the sort of cash influx that militant trainers are looking for.

And third, even if racecourse groups like Northern Racing do shake out the piggy bank, horses who cost a small fortune will still be racing for chump change.

In short, trainers can talk about boycotts until they are blue in the face. They can't seem to agree on a solution to the problem. The BHA have hardly been dynamic in tackling the issue. Meanwhile, the dropoff rate among owners is running at around thirty per cent a year.

Maybe it will all look much more rosy five years from now. But, all in all, I wouldn't bet on it.

Post a comment

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comment: