Fact or Fiction: Canadian International & Champions Day

Events / Timeform / 14 October 2011 / 1 Comments

Will Frankel surpass the great Sea Bird II?

"Frankel is the undefeated, undisputed champion of the world, and the scary thing is that we've yet to see the best of him..."

TVG's Simon Bray joins Timeform Flat Editor Jamie Lynch to provide two different perspectives on topics about the top races across the globe this weekend...

1. A strong group of 3-year-olds led by Treasure Beach and Quest For Peace will prove too much for their older rivals in the Pattison Canadian International.

Simon Bray: FACT. Although Quest for Peace comes off a victory at Ascot just two weeks ago, this is the move that his trainer Luca Cumani used to win this race back in 1988 with Infamy. He was lightly campaigned through the summer so should be a fresh horse for the autumn. Treasure Beach had his form validated when winning the Secretariat. The 3rd place finisher Banned came back to win the Del Mar Derby (Gr1). As far as the older horses go, the local contingent are the same faces we have seen the last few years. Finally, last years' top three finishers all return. Joshua Tree has run well recently without winning since February, More Wells is too inconsistent and Redwood has not won since the Northern Dancer last year.

Jamie Lynch: FACT. The first three home in the 2010 renewal are here again but a year older and the worse for wear, with none of Joshua Tree, Mores Wells or Redwood looking the same force in their European campaigns this summer. That paves the way for the three-year-olds, in particular Treasure Beach and Quest For Peace, who look a formidable pairing as far as this race is concerned. The duo are rated virtually the same with us here at Timeform, but boast different profiles: the signs of a hard season were all over Treasure Beach in the Arc, whereas Quest For Peace is the up-and-comer who's peaking at just the right time, and that fact tips the scales in his favor.

2. With a majority of the runners being based in either Canada or the USA, the North American contingent will be able to hold serve in the Nearctic Stakes.

Simon Bray: FACT. North Americans usually excel in the Sprint division and that might continue here with Right One for trainer Christophe Clement. He ran so well last month in the Woodbine Mile finishing 3rd with a troubled trip. Reverting back to 6 furlongs should be perfect for him. Lastly, the filly Jenny's So Great is undefeated in her last three starts sprinting on the grass. She takes on the boys for the first time.

Jamie Lynch: FICTION. However good the North American sprinters are, they'll have to go some to catch Bated Breath, as he would have won two Group 1s in Britain this summer but for Dream Ahead, who showed to the world just how classy he is when disposing of the mighty Goldikova in France. The fact Bated Breath missed out narrowly on those big sprints, coupled with his low-key background, means he's heavily favored by the weights in the Nearctic, carrying only 8-03, and I'm fully expecting a smash-and-grab raid by BB on Sunday.

3. Frankel (currently Timeform rated 142) will not only win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Saturday but will go on to surpass Sea Bird II, Timeform's highest-rated racehorse of all time at 145.

Simon Bray: FACT. According to Timeform Frankel is the best horse in the world. He is 7lb clear of Australian superstar Black Caviar. After this Saturday, he might go down as the best miler of all time. On paper he is 12lb clear of his nearest rival Immortal Verse. I envision him winning easily on a course and at a distance that he has excelled over, after which he will surpass Sea Bird's II 145 rating. Simple as that.

Jamie Lynch: FACT FACT FACT! Frankel is the undefeated, undisputed champion of the world, and the scary thing is that we've yet to see the best of him. His awesome displays of speed and strength over eight unbeaten races has been something of epic proportions, the like of which has rarely if ever been seen before in Timeform's experience, and it has all been backed up by the clock. Steamrollering this lot on Saturday may not be enough to see Frankel being crowned as the best there has ever been, but he'll do it one day. Trust me!

4. Aidan O'Brien's So You Think can handle the quick turnaround from the Arc in the Champion Stakes on Saturday and will win at Ascot before going on to win at the Breeders' Cup.

Simon Bray: FICTION. History says that the Arc can be a tough race on a horse. Even if So You Think can overcome the Arc and the quick turnaround, the issue for me is the Breeders Cup. The connections have indicated that the Classic is their option. While the 1 1/4 miles might be ideal the dirt is a real problem for me. This horse has a true turf pedigree. This is not Santa Anita 2008 and 2009 with a synthetic track. Plus, if he were to run in the Breeders Cup, it would be his third race in a month.

Jamie Lynch: FICTION. The Arc (in which he finished fourth) didn't get to the bottom of So You Think due to the draw and tactics, and it's a statement of intent that Ballydoyle are getting him out again so soon. The two-week turnaround shouldn't be an issue for a horse who was used to racing in quick succession when trained in Australia, and the Champion Stakes at Ascot on Saturday looks at his mercy. Beyond that, the Breeders' Cup is another matter entirely.

Comments (1)

1. chuck | 14 October 2011

   The idea of ranking a 8 panel horse above a 10 or 12 panel horse is absurb. Frankel might beat the Ribots, Sea Bird IIs, Sea The Stars @ 8 panels but doubtful he can keep up with them @ 10 - 12 panels. Ever wonder why Frankel does not run in the most prestigious races in Europe like Epsom and Arc etc? because he is not that great of a horse, just a great miler. Which horse is better?

   1. 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
   or
   2. 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

   I rest my case.