Fact or Fiction: Breeders' Cup 2011

Events / Timeform / 03 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Jackson Bend defy the critics?

"In a nutshell, the main issue with Jackson Bend is ability rather than conditions, and, for our money, he'd have come up just short whichever race was chosen."

Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch is joined by TVG's Simon Bray to provide a perspective from each side of the Atlantic on topics about this weekend's Breeders' Cup.

1. The Breeders' Cup Classic will go to the girls this year with a victory by either the filly Havre de Grace or female jockey Chantal Sutherland on board Game On Dude.

Simon Bray: FICTION. Even though Game on Dude has looked outstanding in his workouts, I really question the caliber of horses he has been facing on the West Coast. I think the handicap division has been pretty weak this year in California. Secondly, whilst Chantal has had great success with Game on Dude, the fact that she has never ridden a race at Churchill Downs is a serious concern for me. In fact I don't think she has even been to Churchill Downs. Havre De Grace will be crowned Horse of the Year is she wins the Classic, and rightly so. Although she has run competitively at 1 1/4miles, I don't think it is her best distance and against the likes of Stay Thirsty and Flat Out she will need everything to go her way.

Jamie Lynch: FACT. 2011 has been a landmark year for lady riders in Britain courtesy of Hayley Turner who won not one but two Group 1 sprints in the summer, one on a filly. The pioneer for women riders, Julie Krone, even flew over to win the 'legends' race at Doncaster's St Leger meeting in September, and now Chantal Sutherland has the chance - and a live chance at that - to make another big breakthrough for the girls. However, my original assertion of 'fact' regards the fairer sex carrying off the Classic was 5% in hope that Miss Sutherland can do it and 95% in the belief that Havre de Grace will do it. We're very, very keen on Havre de Grace here at Timeform, where we have her rated as best of the Americans at these weights following her demolition job at Belmont last month. With nagging doubts about the other two of 'the big three' as we see them, specifically the questions of So You Think taking to the surface and Uncle Mo lasting out the distance, it looks a good bet to us that Havre de Grace will become only the second filly to win the Classic, hot on the heels of Zenyatta.

2. Of the horses running this year with a past Breeders' Cup victory on their resume, Goldikova stands the best chance to add another win.

Simon Bray: FACT. No question about this one. She has already beaten the main American hopes (Courageous Cat and Gio Ponti) in the last two runnings and she will have the measure of the new US face in Turallure. As far as the Europeans go she is just simply better....make it 4 Breeders' Cups in a row.

Jamie Lynch: FACT. Stating that as a fact has little to do with the others who fit the bill and everything to do with Goldikova herself. It's not meant to be in any way negative about the comeback bids of previous Breeders' Cup winners, with Uncle Mo and Midday sure to be thereabouts in the Classic and Turf respectively, while we're fully behind Big Drama as he goes for back-to-back Sprints, but Goldikova really is the outstanding candidate in this category. Despite her three defeats this season, trust Timeform ratings that she's as good now as she was when winning the Mile in the preceding three years, and, with post position 1 the icing on the preparation cake, Goldikova is all set to rewrite the Breeders' Cup record books yet again.

3. Nick Zito made the correct choice by entering Jackson Bend in the Breeders' Cup Sprint rather than the Dirt Mile where he would likely have been favored.

Simon Bray: FICTION. The Breeders' Cup Sprint looks a much tougher race to win than the Dirt Mile. With two phenomenal works from Euroears after which trainer Bob Baffert declared "There is the Sprint winner!" and defending champ Big Drama who according to his trainer, David Fawkes is doing better than before last years' race, it looks as though Jackson Bend could only finish third at best.

Jamie Lynch: FICTION. When Jackson Bend took the 7f Forego Stakes at Saratoga in early-September, we at the time put it down in writing in Perspective - the Timeform Form Book - that "while you couldn't write him off completely if dropped to 6f, the Dirt Mile represents his best chance of success at the Breeders' Cup." We're standing by that now, though the truth is that Jackson Bend would have had his work cut out in the Dirt Mile anyway, with the likes of The Factor, Wilburn and Trappe Shot all rated slightly higher than him by Timeform. The opposition might well have influenced Nick Zito's decision, and in that sense aiming for the Sprint looks the right move, though even then a place or show is probably the best he could hope for. In a nutshell, the main issue with Jackson Bend is ability rather than conditions, and, for our money, he'd have come up just short whichever race was chosen.

4.The Aidan O'Brien/Coolmore team is only 1-for-38 in the Breeders' Cup since 2004, but will improve on that this year with their eleven horse strong contingent.

Simon Bray :FICTION. The Coolmore team's best chances come in the Breeders' Cup Turf with Await the Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey. The problem is they will have to face Sarafina and Sea Moon. Their best chance to win a race would have been to run So You Think in the BC Turf and not run him in the Classic.

Jamie Lynch: FICTION. In fairness to Ballydoyle, that basic statistic doesn't do the team justice, considering their luckless record with as many as SEVEN seconds in various Breeders' Cup races since 2004. O'Brien is a great supporter of the Breeders' Cup, making for heavy representation and a seemingly poor strike rate, but the fact is that a healthy percentage of his contenders, in particular the Ballydoyle bigger guns, have performed at least as well as could have been expected, which is a truer representation than a binominal win-lose measure. Having said all of that, winners are what really count and, despite the size of O'Brien's squad for this year, there isn't a compelling case for a single one of them hitting the bull's-eye. The European bookmakers are offering odds of 2/1 about O'Brien failing to register a win at the 2011 Breeders' Cup; it's probably more of an even-money shot.

5. With the addition of the Juvenile Sprint the Breeders' Cup now comprises of fifteen races over two days, and no further expansion is necessary.

Simon Bray: FACT! FACT! FACT! Enough already. We have every division represented in the Breeders Cup. Let's not dilute the appeal of winning a Breeders Cup race by adding more and more races. Besides, it took nearly 2 hours to conduct the post-position draw this week!

Jamie Lynch: FACT. Over here in Britain and Ireland, four-, five- and six-day festivals are an integral part of the racing calendar, and the extension in recent years of the blue ribbon meetings at Cheltenham in March and Ascot in June go to show there is an appetite for getting as much bang as possible for the buck. There are two points to make here, though. Crucially, the majority of the races there aren't billed as Championship contests, rather valuable handicaps steeped in tradition and prestige, and even so there is still a feeling that expansion has resulted in several such festivals spreading themselves rather too thin. The Breeders' Cup is different, more in line with the card at Longchamp on Arc day, in that the ultimate aim is to produce a distinct champion with each race. Since the move to two days in 2007, and the inception of contests such as the Marathon, the Turf Sprint and the Juvenile Fillies Turf, we have seen Grade 3 horses at best, such as Muhannak, Man of Iron, Chamberlain Bridge and Maram being proclaimed, theoretically, as division champions. The Breeders' Cup cannot be all things to all men (or women), and supplementing it further risks devaluing the product as a whole.

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