Epsom Derby Betting / Jack Houghton / 12 June 2009 / 2 Comments

Jack Houghton casts a cold, analytical eye over Sea The Stars' Epsom victory.

Always keen to assert grand proclamations after any big race, racing analysts have told us the Derby win of Sea The Stars proves two things. First, that he stays 12 furlongs. Second, that the performance, "places him among the sport's true greats." Well, proclamations are all well and good, but they rarely approach the cold-hearted accuracy of racing reality.

Take Sea The Stars' stamina. I stay "stamina" because I'm reluctant to talk about a horse "staying" or not. It's not a binary thing. Horses have an optimum distance for sure - determined by a complex mix of physical and psychological factors - but the drop off in form either side of this optimum is not as rapid as some would have us believe; not initially at least. Admittedly, a horse peaking at six furlongs is not going to win an Ascot Gold Cup, but said horse should be able to run very close to its best mark over five and seven furlongs, provided racing conditions are broadly similar.

Analysing the victories of Sea The Stars at Newmarket and Epsom, the evidence suggests his optimum trip to be closer to a mile than 12 furlongs. Although most have handicapped his Derby win as on a par with his 2,000 Guineas win, the clock tells a different story. In one of the four slowest winning Derby times of the last 20 years - on ground that didn't look overly soft - I have Sea The Stars running over a stone worse at Epsom than he did at Newmarket.

However, just because he didn't post a speed figure approaching his best in the Derby, it doesn't mean he wouldn't have been able to, given different conditions. The race was run relatively slowly in the early stages and Sea The Stars was ridden to win; not to set a personal best time. But still, on balance, it looks more likely the horse will run its best when stepped down in distance again.

As for his greatness or otherwise, I struggle to find any reason why his Derby win anoints Sea The Stars thus. Yes, the race demonstrated a degree of versatility, but in terms of us now knowing enough to elevate him to such a lofty position? We'll need to wait a while first. With luck he'll remain fit and healthy and be able to take up proposed targets in the showpiece summer races before heading Stateside - then we'll have a better idea as to what truth there is in his greatness.

The upshot of all this from a punting point of view is that, if he lines up in the Irish Derby his odds will likely be too short for a horse that remains, in my eyes, more likely to peak over a shorter distance.

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One of the side-stories from this year's Derby was the decision by Epsom stewards to fine Aidan O'Brien £840. That's £140 for each of the six Ballydoyle horses who were late into the parade ring; denying punters paddock-side anything more than a cursory glance at nearly half the field.

There have been suggestions the tardiness represented gamesmanship on O'Brien's part - something he flatly denies - with the more likely explanation being that the always meticulous handler felt the need to quadruple-check each detail before despatching his charges, and just didn't leave himself enough time.

Whatever the explanation though, the fine levied is ridiculous: amounting to about the same sum of money it would have cost just ten of those paddock-siders to be there in the first place. If you're going to have fines, they have to have some kind of deterrent value. And whilst it must be difficult for the BHA to implement a consistent fine structure - after all, what deters a small-time handler with a rare Derby runner will be very different to what deters O'Brien - why not just make it a percentage of prize money?

If Ballydoyle knew they were likely to forego 20 per cent of any potential prize money in the race in question, they would likely have put in place more time-sensitive processes to make sure their runners were in the parade ring when they should have been.