Epsom Derby Betting / Graham Cunningham / 04 June 2009 / Leave a comment

BB's top racing blogger runs through the juicy bits of a very tasty Epsom card where Sariska will likely go off favourite in what could be a memorable running of the Oaks.

It's a Newmarket thing on Oaks day at Epsom as Sariska, Rainbow View and Midday - all trained within a mile of each other at HQ - dominate the betting on the Investec Oaks. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham makes Sariska the pick of the trio and pinpoints a host of other angles for the five live BBC2 races on day one of Derby weekend.

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1.40 - Pinpointing the likely pace is a good starting point at any track but especially at Epsom. And it's likely to come from Deposer and General Elliot here.

General Elliot looks the better bet to stick around until the finish, as his best form brings him firmly into the reckoning and he looked as good as ever with a battling success at Ascot on his reappearance.

The unexposed Confront is certain to head the market and thoroughly deserves to after his decisive handicap success off a mark of 105 at Newmarket. However, the odds will be tight and General Elliot win and place looks the value call.

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2.10 - I have absolutely no idea what will win this.

In-running players will be well aware that Plum Pudding and Philario are likely to set the tempo and they both line up in top form, whereas Bencoolen and Tartan Gigha have something to prove after running well below par for no obvious reason last time.

More Time Tim has been in great nick on the AW but is hard to assess on his return to turf, while South Cape has been absent for seven months and Capable Guest usually hinders himself be getting chopped for pace.

In short, the front runners are the form horses, But all in all, I'm happy to pass.

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2.45 - Down the card with a line on each runner.

Ask looked good in the Yorkshire Cup but tends to struggle to beat Youmzain.
Buccellati is dead reliable but has something to prove at Group 1 level.
Duncan can't win on form but is improving and looks a dangerous floater.
Eastern Anthem thrived in Dubai, but can he beat Youmzain this time?
Expresso Star has the lowest official mark and looks to have it all on.
Frozen Fire is an Irish Derby winner but didn't handle Epsom half as well.
Youmzain's high class form has to be set against his habit of finding trouble.
Look Here was emphatic in the Oaks here. But how well has she trained on?

Conclusion: Hard to see there being a strong gallop, so tactics could be important. Bleating after the event is no good if you back Youmzain, given his tendency to find pockets, but he's plainly good enough to win this if Richard Hills keeps him close enough to utilise his potent finish and [3.5] looks a very fair price. Duncan's rapid progress since joining Gosden makes him the live longshot.

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3.25 - Lake Poet, Sweet Lightning, Seeking The Buck and Dream Desert represent a short list which is tricky to whittle down here.

Seeking The Buck romped home at Newmarket and is plainly back on track for his new yard, while Dream Desert could be overpriced given that he was badly drawn at Chester.

However, Lake Poet and Sweet Lightning make the final cut. Lake Poet's claims are obvious and rest on the fact that he goes extremely well here and looked as good as ever when chasing home handicap blot Duncan last month.

Sweet Lightning was back in sixth that day, but he was forced to endure M25-style traffic trouble in the straight and would have been very close to Lake Poet without the interference.

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4.05 - This is an Oaks with an appealing betting shape for the simple reason that Sariska and Rainbow View stand out on form with 7lb and more in hand of Midday and company on Timeform ratings.

And it's effectively a duel between one filly well on her way to being a Group 1 performer and another who is bidding to recover her Group 1 form of 2008.

Rainbow View was dominant as a juvenile and John Gosden is absolutely adamant that fast ground was the reason for her failure to quicken as expected when odds-on for Ghanaati's 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

If she stays a mile-and-a-half then Rainbow View is a danger to all. But there is an if involved and, on balance, I suspect that Sariska might be the stronger stayer over the distance.

Michael Bell timed Motivator's run to the Derby to perfection back in 2005 and Sariska looks to be peaking in similar fashion based on her emphatic success in York's Musidora Stakes. She's thriving physically and, given that further progress looks highly likely, I suspect that a split stakes bet comprising two to place and one to win might prove a very safe investment.

Of the rest, Perfect Truth and Phillipina are plainly very closely matched on Cheshire Oaks form. The market has spoken for Phillipina, but I suspect Perfect Truth will come out on top again and her freewheeling style offers clear back to lay mileage.

Midday is a smashing filly from a yard with a superb Oaks record. She might just come up short this time, though, while Oh Goodness Me makes some appeal as a small place lay given the doubts about her stamina and whether she's good enough to cut the mustard at this level.