Investec Epsom Derby: Has Murtagh made the right choice?

Epsom Derby Betting / Wayne Bailey / 04 June 2009 / 1 Comments

Ballydoyle will once again dominate the Derby betting with almost half the field for the 2009 renewal. Wayne Bailey takes a look at the stable's entries...

Well, the speculation is finally over and on Tuesday, Johnny Murtagh committed to riding Rip Van Winkle. Personally, I don't rate 'Rip' as highly as some of the other O'Brien horses; but who am I to question Johnny Murtagh, and it's easy for me to sit in front of my computer and make assumptions! But opposing opinions are the reason we have backers and layers for every race - so I'm going to do a Kent Brockman and give my two cents worth today:

In fairness, it was an incredibly tough decision and should Rip Van Winkle lose on Saturday, it wouldn't be the first time a top jockey called it wrong. Indeed on Tuesday, Murtagh told Niall Cronin of the Evening Herald and betting.betfair.ie: "It is a very, very tough decision with just heads and necks between the horses in their trials. I always liked Rip Van Winkle.

"As a two-year-old, when he won at Leopardstown, I thought he was a little bit special and he ran very well in the Guineas at Newmarket this year.

"Listen, you'd love to be on the right one and you'd love to say you made the right choice but I think anywhere I have been I have been a team player. I have ridden most of the (Ballydoyle) horses in their work and as long as one of them wins I will be delighted."

Murtagh obviously has an insight to what goes on at home on the gallops, but for us mere mortals, the form book must be our only guide - as following speculation is one of the quickest ways to the poorhouse in this game.

His training was interrupted this season when he showed up sore after pulling a shoe, but he made it to the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket where he managed fourth place with Murtagh on board. Indeed, Murtagh is the only man to ride Rip so far, and it's clear that the County Meath man has a soft spot for this son of Galileo.

But if we cut to the chase and cast aside speculation, Rip Van Winkle's best win to date was the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown almost a year ago - a Group 3 race with three other competitors. Cuis Ghaire is the only one of the beaten horses to make any sort of name for herself but none have managed to win. So does that race really tell us anything about Rip Van Winkle's ability?

Murtagh may have inside knowledge but we can only go on what we've seen with our own eyes - and on that basis, Rip Van Winkle has got to be a lay around [6.0].

As mentioned before on these pages, I backed Fame And Glory before the Derrinstown and got a rather nice price of [7.2]. Seamus Heffernan gets the ride but in the past week or two, I've started to go a little colder, even though the horse has never lost a race. He may have a picket fence next to his name, but he beat the same horses (Mourayan and Fergus McIver) in his two Leopardstown races this season and is yet to prove himself on a big stage in the UK.

Two-time UK champion Jockey Ryan Moore will take the reins of Black Bear Island and some would say he's the dark horse of the race. But I'm not convinced and I think his Dante win was very hard fought. He's a brother to High Chaparral so commands some respect - but The Derby is the best race of the British calendar and his price of [10.0] on Betfair is probably about right.

Richard Hughes will get the leg-up on Masterofthehorse but I've a slight worry that he doesn't like going left-handed as much as right. I also wonder if the 1m4f distance suits so I'll consider a place lay on the day depending on prices. With respect to Age Of Aquarius and Golden Sword, a victory for either horse would be a massive upset.

But it's time to get off the fence and try to call the winner. While the focus of this article is on the O'Brien horses, I think the John Oxx-trained Sea The Stars will be very hard to beat and I've decided to jump ship from my original choice of Fame And Glory.

A Ballydoyle Derby victory would be the perfect tribute to the late great Vincent O'Brien, but racehorses don't often follow the script and the 2,000 Guineas winner ticks all the right boxes for me. I'll admit that his stamina will be tested over this distance - but I still think he has room for improvement and may just have enough class to land the spoils. Emulating Nijinsky and Nashwan by doing a double is a very tall order- but I'm willing to take my chances and a price of [4.4] has proved too hard for me to resist.

It's a tricky one folks - so all comments thoughts and tips are most welcome below!

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Comments (1)

1. Stu | 05 June 2009

   Wayne, jumping ship is a risky business in this game!

   Fame & Glory for me, to be followed home by Black Bear Island and Gan Ahmras...