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Epsom Preview: Graham Cunningham rates the prime Derby contenders

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The last pieces of the Derby are slotting into place and the ante-post markets are livening up accordingly. But which of the gambles are well founded and which are built on weak foundations? Will the ground dry up enough to let Henrythenavigator back into the reckoning? And, even more tantalisingly, will New Approach be left in the race "in error" again at Monday's five-day stage?

RUK analyst Graham Cunningham runs the rule over the main fancies in each Classic and takes an educated guess as to how they will travel in the market over the next week.

CASUAL CONQUEST
It seems he's in it, but can he win it? Well, the fact that Dermot Weld favours spending £75,000 to supplement is significant in itself and, having won a key trial by clear daylight, it's no wonder he has been heavily backed. But, rightly or wrongly, I'm not convinced. He's a big, raw, inexperienced colt who didn't handle Leopardstown's easy bend that well in the Derrinstown. He also changed his legs in a racecourse gallop there on Thursday and hurtling down Tattenham Hill could pose problems. I doubt the betting public will lump on come the day and, if he wins, I lose.

Current Betfair price: [4.7]
Estimated starting price: [5.5]


CURTAIN CALL
No shortage of plusses here. First, Cumani's ability to prepare a Derby colt to peak on the right day is undoubted; second, as a son of Sadler's Wells from a fine staying family his stamina is copper bottomed; and third, he proved that he has trained on well when trouncing two inferior rivals at Nottingham. His absence from the Lingfield Derby Trial due to fast ground denied us a chance to get a better handle on him, but this colt would benefit more than most from further rain and he looks bound to be in the mix once things get tough from the two furlong pole.

Current Betfair price: [7.0]
Estimated starting price: [7.5]


TARTAN BEARER
Won the race which has become the key Derby trial in recent years and is trained by a man with a superb Derby pedigree. And, although not many people got excited by that Dante success, I suspect that Tartan Bearer produced a very solid performance in coming from last to first to beat Frozen Fire and Twice Over. He ran home straight as a gun barrel at York, recording a vastly improved figure in the process, and Stoute seems quietly confident that there is much more to come over a mile and a half. His full brother Golan finished third in this race back in 2001. Tartan Bearer has the potential to fare at least as well.

Current Betfair price: [8.6]
Estimated starting price: [6.5]


TAJAAWEED
Sir Michael Stoute landed Chester's Dee Stakes with subsequent Derby winner Kris Kin and is aiming for the same double with Tajaaweed. There is no doubt this colt has the physique of a good horse and he took a major step forward when quickening well from the rear to beat a solid yardstick in Unnefer on the Roodeye. But can he step up to the next level over an extra two furlongs at Epsom? His pedigree isn't conclusive on the matter, but the money has come for him all week on the back of an impressive midweek gallop. In conclusion, he's a hard one to assess. Trouble in running is a possibility if Richard Hills drops him out again and, for me, he falls into the "don't back, don't lay" category.

Current Betfair price: [8.4]
Estimated starting price: [10.0]


DOCTOR FREMANTLE
It goes against the grain to suggest that a colt who was beaten off 84 in a handicap just six weeks ago could make a major impact in the Derby. But this third string to the Stoute bow took a major step forward to run out a narrow yet decisive winner of the Chester Vase and gives the impression that he can do much better again granted a sterner stamina test. To back him is to take a punt more on feel than fact. But the same leap of faith is necessary with so many of this year's field. In short, he's a proven stayer who will handle Epsom with no problems. Is he a genuine Group 1 colt? I suspect he might be.

Current Betfair price: [10.0]
Estimated starting price: [9.0]


FROZEN FIRE
The stats boys took a kicking at Cheltenham but, given that no beaten Dante horse has ever won the Derby, they will surely be laying this colt till their noses bleed. And, much as I love to see the trends mob squirm, I suspect they might be right. Frozen Fire was pipped by Tartan Bearer at York and would have done even better had he kept straight. But the fact that he didn't on a flat track is worrying. I'm sure he'll stay. And I suspect he'll beat more than beat him. It's just that I suspect that, wherever he finishes, Tartan Bearer will be in front of him.

Current Betfair price: [14.0]
Estimated starting price: [12.0]


HENRYTHENAVIGATOR
All the signs suggest the dual Guineas winner won't be heading to Epsom. But little can be taken for granted as regards the big ante-post races nowadays and those who have taken him on at big prices won't rest easy until they know for sure that he heads to Royal Ascot instead. Even a dry week seems unlikely to yield a change of heart from Coolmore. Then again, nothing is set in stone.

Current Betfair price: [18.0]
Estimated starting price: Could be favourite at around [4.5] in the unlikely event that he runs.


KANDAHAR RUN
You would probably struggle to get him to admit it, but it's a fair bet that Henry Cecil would give a great deal for just one more Derby success before he retires. Cecil's Epsom pedigree is hard to fault, but the case for Kandahar Run is more difficult to make. Granted, he's progressive and has a good attitude, but his current form stands short of Group 1 level and his tendency to race freely raises slight doubts as to how he will handle the last two furlongs. All in all, a place looks the best he can hope for.

Current Betfair price: [30.0]
Estimated starting price: [35.0]


ALESSANDRO VOLTA
The human Alessandro Volta made his name cutting up frogs as part of his pioneering work in the field of electricity. The equine version didn't create much of a surge in the Derby market after his Lingfield Trial success and, though that track is usually a fine proving ground for Epsom, this colt didn't handle the bend that well despite getting an easy lead and also wandered before being driven right out to beat stablemate King Of Rome. The trip will suit and it seldom pays to dismiss any Ballydoyle runner in the Derby, but I'm neutral at best on this one.

Current Betfair price: [21.0]
Estimated starting price: [18.0]


RIO DE LA PLATA
One minute, he's being talked about as a pure miler, the next minute, Godolphin are doing an about turn and sending him on an optimistic mission to Epsom even though they plainly doubt his staying power themselves. The famous "Frankie Factor" will ensure he attracts support, but the bottom line is that reproducing the best of his previous form - including his French Guineas second from a poor draw - won't be enough for Rio De La Plata here. He needs to improve for the extra half mile. Timeform don't expect him to do that based on their comments in Racehorses of 2007. And I'm inclined to agree with them.

Current Betfair price: [21.0]
Estimated starting price: [15.0]


BRONZE CANNON
Beat Doctor Fremantle off levels in the aforementioned Newmarket handicap and has since bolted up off a mark of 94 at HQ. Connections are entitled to point to the Doctor and argue that they deserve to step up in class and distance Epsom, too. But is Bronze Cannon progressing as well as that colt? I doubt that he is and it seems that most punters agree with that viewpoint.

Current Betfair price: [48.0]
Estimated starting price: [40.0]