Epsom Derby Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 05 June 2009 / Leave a comment

It's Ladies' Day at Epsom where the Oaks is the undoubted highlight of a very strong card. Geoffrey Riddle is trackside with paddock views and expert insight throughout the day. If you want to get in touch, e-mail him at: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

4.50pm result:
1: 1 Ocean's Minstrel
2: 7 Ermine And Velvet
3: 6 Nasri
Scott has just e-mailed in. 'Can you get me one of those pizzas, I'm starving," he writes. Scott is clearly not the planning type. I mean it has only just gone 4.50pm. Did you not have afternoon tea? From the sign-off at the bottom of his e-mail, it is clear that he works for some trendy media company in London. Surely they provide such things. And if not, what has the world come to. Anyway Scott, I wouldn't fancy my chances wrestling an American hot off any of those girls. Some of them look pretty big...

Bell nominated no particular targets for Sariska in the post-race press conference, but he did effectively ruled out the St Leger, preferring to drop her back to ten furlongs if a change of distance was decided upon. Obviously all options are open, with the Yorkshire and Irish Oaks, Arc and Breeders Cup all to be considered.
Bell also highlighted that Sariska needs a lot of graft to get ready, calling her a "a lazy, laid-back sort."
The 4.50pm sees the battle of the two most inform trainers in the country. As of this morning, Peter Chapple-Hyam had five winners from his last 13 runners, and against that, Willie Haggas is seven from 17 runners in the last fortnight. PC-H saddles Mishrif, Haggas saddles the potentially dangerous Mastoora, who is one of three horses that carries just 8st8lbs.

Oaks result:
1: 7 Sariska
2: 2 Midday
3: 1 High Heeled
Despite a heroic effort by Sariska to take out as many of the opposition as possible, the Stewards have judged that the places will remain unaltered.
What a car crash that was. It was like the bumper cars that are being enjoyed in the middle of the racecourse right now.
Sariska's win is also the first 1m4f victory at Group 1 level for the sire Pivotal, a sprinter that won the Nunthorpe. Breeding, eh? An inexact science if there ever was one...

While the Stewards deliberate over a glass or two of port, Jimmy Fortune reported that Rainbow View was 'knocked all over the place' during her run, which saw her finish fourth. It wont make the loss any easier, but at least you've got an excuse to cling on to as you see you balance empty out...I know how you feel, if that is any more consolation.

Pizza guzzlers everywhere still. what actually are they eating? A late lunch? An early dinner? Who knows.

A lot of jumpy fillies, with Rainbow View and Minniver Rose creating a bit of trouble on the way out on to the track.

Aidan O'Brien has won the Oaks three times and on each occasion he had just one runner in the race. I don't particularly think that Perfect Truth will win, but Coolmore must fancy her, no?

It's not that I can't have Midday in the imminent Oaks. It's just that last year, Look Here boasted a second to the colt Tartan Bearer, who was quite fancied for the Derby. She was considered a 33-1 rag for the fillies' Classic.
Midday was second to Debussy at Epsom, who is a massive price for tomorrow's Derby, and yet she is [6.8]. It can only be the Henry Cecil factor that makes her so short.
Rainbow View has hardened considerably and is now [3.85], which is probably now what she should have been this morning.
Michael Bell's Sariska is the most popular nap of the tipsters with four selections from Simon Turner, the Racing Post's Postdata, the Racing Post's Tony Elves and the Mirror's David Yates.

3.25pm result:
1: 7 Seeking the Buck
2: D-H: 1 Lake Poet, 4 Mystery Star.
You've got to hand it to Seb Sanders for driving home Seeking The Buck. Those colours, too, remember the hurdler Monsignor?
Tributes have also got to go to Mick Channon, trainer of Youmzain. He has taken defeat on the chin. No complaints. He said of Youmzain's agonising defeat to Ask in the Coronation Cup: "We got beaten fair and square and we have to move on. He can win a Group 1, unfortunately that wasn't today. It's obviously disappointing to get beat and Look Here has run a blinder. It was a great race, and that is what racing is all about."

There's precious little liquidity in Betfair's Arc market at the moment, but as a guide to those ante-post layers out there, a frozen Laura Stephens of Stan James handed me a slip of paper with 16-1 from 25-1 about Ask to win the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe in October.

I'll blame the cold for her handwriting, but the list is as follows: It is 8-1 Conduit, 10-1 Fame And Glory if you think he'll outstay everything in tomorrow's Derby and 12-1 the Brigadier Gerard winner, Cima de Triomphe.

And to think, Ask was going to go hurdling, but connections have just named the Irish St Leger as his next target.

Coronation Cup result:
1: 1 Ask
2: 7 Youmzain
3: 8 Look Here
Frailty, thy name is woman! What a tremendous effort by the filly Look Here down the outside. It is such a shame she couldn't sustain her run to the line, and she was matched at 1.05 in-running. There will be those who will consider Youmzain unlucky once more. How many times must you guys hit yourself with the same rod, he's not good enough!

Youmzain stomped around the paddock like he owned the place. Having updated myself with the constant fluctuations on Betfair, I'm glad to see that Look Here has come in and is now at [6.0].
There is Pizza Express fever here. It's everywhere, little blue and white boxes of deliciousness. I don't want to sound too much like James Sherwood, the BBC's fashion man at Royal Ascot, but surely women, who have taken the time out of their day to look their best on Ladies Day, should at least sit down when stuffing a Capricciosa down their throats?

In his morning blog, Graham Cunningham went for Youmzain at [3.5], with a saver on John Gosden's Duncan, who is trading at [6.6].
Duncan was also the Pricewise selection, so your'e in good hands with those two horses.
The sporting of you might want to chance Buccellatti. He has performed with great credit over this distance when not faced with the stiffest international Group 1 races that he has been involved in, and at [10.0] he looks a big price. As does Look Here, who it must be remembered has only four races under her belt. Last year's Oaks heroine can be backed at [6.6].

2.10pm result:
1: 6 Tartan Gigha
2: 2 Plum Pudding
3: 1 Philario
How about that, eh? Mark Johnston, you beauty! The gamble on Philario did not materialise, but to be fair, Plum Pudding had them strung out, which made it difficult to land a blow form the back.

None of the trainers are keen to say that their horses have a great chance, but Murtaza Khan, owner of More Time Tim, the fourth favourite, was convinced his charge was each-way material.
"He's in good form, he said. "I'd have a few quid on him each-way." He's backable at [10.0]
Sporting Index's Karl Suntay couldn't work this one out, but he is sweet on Andrew Balding's Buccellati [10.0] in the Coronation Cup, and Sariska, who is now the second-favourite for the Oaks at [4.1].

Betfair punters have taken the hint that Philario is Karl Burke's only runner at Epsom today, and that he has travelled 256 miles to get here. The joint top-weight also has the considerable benefit of having the very capable claimer, Martin Lane, in the saddle. Philario is trading at [4.3], and his run at York, where he sandwiched joint-favourites Yamal and Mia's Boy, looks the key to his solid form.
Combing through the Racing Post, Mark Johnston's Tartan Gigha looks a decent price at [7.4]. His run behind the potentially top-class Cadre at Yarmouth was useful , and he was kept too far out the back when seventh behind subsequent scorer Dunn'o at Sandown in April.

1.40pm result:
1: Mac Love
2: Confront
3: Deposer

Ouch. Good on her. There I was highlighting that Stef Liddard hadn't scored in 53 days, and then up pops Mac Love at 14-1! Great ride by Micky Fenton to range up on the stands side.
Still, we got the short-priced favourite beaten, which is a decent start to the day.
Connections of Deposer, who finished third, are seriously considering a tilt at the Jersey Stakes at royal Ascot. "It'll be a great day out," they said. It certainly will be, but Deposer is unlikely to set alight the Royal Meeting.

Stef Liddard, trainer of Mac Love, has just been on Racing UK. I can't have the eight-year-old for any money, particularly my own. She hasn't had a winner in 53 days, or 23 runs. I can't have the three-year-old Deposer, either. A three-year-old hasn't won this in the last ten years, and not for lack of trying either.
Here are all the three-year-olds to have run in this race in the last decade...
2008: Alexandros 2nd, Young Pretender 3rd.
2006: Mulaquat came last
2005: Thunderwing last
2003: Battlechant 4th
2002: Highdown 2nd
2001: Cauvery 2nd
1999: Yakareem 2nd, Wallace 3rd

The on-course bookies are all singing from the same hymn-sheet, with few looking to take cash on the red-hot favourite. All are going 5-4 to a man.
Confront continues to plummet in price, almost to the exception of every other horse.
I'm no paddock judge, but several people were pointing out the rather large rump of Cunningham's choice, General Elliott. That is a good thing apparently, it means he has power...

The band outside are trying desperately to gee up what is a distinctly drab afternoon, sat under heavy grey clouds. Glorious Goodwood this is not. They seem to be relying on Elton John back numbers for some reason ... how wonderful life is, when you're in the world...
I've had three e-mails so far. One from Sam in Bolton, who thinks that I'm mad for even considering Hatta Fort in the 1.40pm. He's a Confront man (I hear the Betfair layers licking their lips...[2.34] is far too short, no?).
There are some tidings from Lorraine in Bedford, who highlights that Karl Burke has travelled 256 miles to bring Philario to Epsom for the 2.10pm. It is his only runner of the day and he is trading at [4.5] with Bencoolen, who was third in the Thirsk Hunt Cup.
The other e-mail is spam. Anyone need any pills?

Going readings are always slightly misleading, so those who like the newer Goingstick readings, we have 8.5 here.
Director of racing Andrew Cooper said: "I would say there is more 'good' on the Derby course, while the five-furlong course is more good to firm due to the fact that it drains quicker"
The great Tony Calvin has entered the building. Betfair's master of communication looks dapper in a pin-stripe, although he could probably do with doing up his tie a shade tighter. He's not giving anything away with regards to today's card, but if there are any rugby punters out there, Wigan -14 is the tip.

Ok, let's dip out toes into the murky waters of this year's Oaks. The Racing Post have come out all guns blazing, and the tipsters that matter have all sided with John Gosden's Rainbow View.
Betfair punters have taken note of the likes of Pricewise, Matt Williams and Paul Kealy and last year's champion filly is now trading at [4.2] from an early morning [4.9].
The daughter of Dynaformer is the youngest in the line-up, and given that she was acquainted with Epsom's unique undulations last week in a racecourse gallop, Gosden believes she should be fine, temperament-wise.
The Clarehaven trainer also was keen to underline his Derby tips. He said: "Sea The Stars is the most likely winner for me."
"The Guineas was the form last year with New Approach, who was only just touched off, and there is no reason to assume that things will be any different this year. He looks a class colt."
I have the utmost respect for Mr Gosden, but I couldn't agree less with him on Sea the Stars, more of which will come later.
Do agree with Gozzie? E-mail me at theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com and let me know...

Godolphin's Hatta Fort has been a drifter for the 1.40pm, probably due to the fact that no one reckons he will stay. He opened at [6.4] and is now trading at around [8.0].
But just look at his breeding! Cape Cross by a Barathea mare. I mean what better stock do you want for a miler? Pouring over his form, you'll see that the only time he contested a mile was at Belmont Park, and the winner of that race is now a Grade 1 winner on his latest start.
Godolphin are not in the worst of form right now, boasting two wins and seven places from 25 horses in the last 14 days. Is it right that he drifts and drifts?
Betfair's ace top tipster Graham Cunningham fancies General Elliott for this one by the way.

Good morning all, and welcome back to Betfair's live racing blog. I have wintered a bit longer than most, but just as the legendary trainer Sir Mark Prescott has made a habit of it over the last few years, I aim to unleash myself on the general betting public from cyberspace. With feedback from you guys, and the all the hottest info from the racecousre itself, we should all be celebrating a profitable summer ... hopefully.

Epsom endured a heavy shower about half an hour ago that prompted director of racing Andrew Cooper to don his wellies and go out and check the going, which, before an update is good, good to firm in places.

The is one non-runner so far:
3.25: Sweet Lightning

And the news about tomorrow's Derby is that South Easter, owned by Bernard Kantor of sponsors Investec, will not run. The Dee Stakes winner scoped badly and then coughed badly, according to his trainer, William Haggas. I'm coughing badly. I'm still here....