Betfair Official Blog

Epsom Derby: The Irish Challenge assessed

Click here to view market

Wayne Bailey rates the chances of Casual Conquest, New Approach, King of Rome et al in Saturday's Epsom Derby

The perils and possibilities of ante-post betting have been laid bare in this year's Derby, and Jim Bolger has caused a lot of anger among punters with his unclear statements regarding New Approach's participation. I stated recently that he should be left free to enter the horse wherever he sees fit, and shouldn't have to answer to a press mob - but even I'll concede that it's getting frustrating now and it's the punters who are feeling it most.

Personally, I've had no financial interest in the horse, and am struggling to see why everyone seems to think he's the best thing since sliced bread. Sure, he had a great season as a two-year old, but he's not invincible as proven by his Irish and English guineas runs this year and still has a lot to prove, especially at this level. It's been six years since the Irish won this race with the O'Brien trained High Chaparral, but that may change this year...

Casual Conquest
At [5.1], I think this horse is seriously overpriced and will definitely carry my money. He traded at [1000.0] ante-post, and I'd love to be sitting on that bet right now! He's in a new league with the big boys here, but his two outings to date show massive promise and if he gets a good position early, I've every reason to believe he can win.

New Approach
There's been a tonne written about this horse recently so I won't bore punters by adding to that. I opposed him on each of his Guineas runs, and will do so again for the Derby.

King Of Rome
His price has dropped significantly recently, no doubt due to the fact that Murtagh has chosen him over his stablemates. He's a good colt and is on the right road, but I don't think his time to shine has come just yet.

Frozen Fire
He put in a decent performance in the Dante when coming second to Tartan Bearer, but there's nothing to suggest he can reverse that form yet, and is probably best watched for now.

Alessandro Volta
He zigzagged all over the track at the Lingfield Derby trial, but still managed to beat King Of Rome and take the prize. He still runs rather green, but I'm going to keep him on my side in the place market despite his failings.

Suggestion: For those of us who are not interested in backing New Approach, Casual Conquest offers a serious bet at a decent price. Alessandro Volta's price is surprisingly high, and he's worth a small bet to be placed despite some questionable performances.