Epsom Derby Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 06 June 2009 /

It's Derby day at Epsom as flat racing's blue riband event has finally arrived. Geoffrey Riddle will be talking us through all the pre and post race news for the big one and all the other races of the day down in Surrey. E-mail Geoffrey your thoughts at:theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com...

Well congratulations to any of you who backed the winner at 33-1, and a big pat on the back for the very few who backed Baldemar at [104.5] in-running. I think it is fair for Dominic from Watford to be bragging about getting on at 28-1. It would be churlish to say that he could have got a bigger price.
And the greatest applause to all to those who supported Sea the Stars in the Derby. Even though all the facts and stats stood against him, even though his trainer John Oxx rated him as only an evens shot to last home, you all believed. And you were rewarded in the best way possible, too. You've witnessed something special, even if the Racing Post's John Randall tells you over the next few days that something in 1837 ran better. It's been a great two days guys and gals. Disperse into the night and spend those winnings.
For those of you who took the advice, I can only apologise. This is all about opinions, and this time, I was wrong. But hey, there's five days of Royal Ascot in just ten day's time, which is ample opportunity to refill those war chests, because hopefully, we'll fire some broadsides then...

As the 'ding dong' sounds the Mac Gillie Eoin layers hold their breath. Those of you out there that managed to lay last year's winner in-running at under [1.5] have an anxious wait...

Dandy Nicholls fields six against the field in the lucky last and no one bats an eyelid. All that attention that Aidan O'Brien drew about six Derby runners. What was the fuss all about?
And Mr Nicholls has an extremely good record in this race, having won it five times in the last ten years. Of his sextet, it might be Abraham Lincoln who prevails. The former O'Brien inmate is drawn well and he and Mac Gillie Eoin are top rated by the Racing Post.
I remember backing Abraham Lincoln at Royal Ascot last year, and he didn't win there either. Isn't it amazing how quickly your confidence changes in this game. Yesterday, I didn't have a care in the world, winning left, right and centre, but today. Ouch. And it doesn't make it any better you guys e-mailing in to tell me so. 'I bet you're seeing stars now,' says Shirley from Chichester. Ho ho ho. I might die laughing...

4.30pm result:
1: Coin Of The Realm
2: Drill Sergeant
3: Martyr
4: Storyland
Be careful guys if you are thinking of backing Sea the Stars for the Arc. The legend that is John Oxx has gone on record to say that it is absolutely essential that his superstar has good, good to firm ground. He was therefore unsure about whether Sea the Stars would run in Paris. He is [5.1] for the French extravaganza in October on Betfair, and that mirrors the high street bookies who are between 3-1 and 5-1.
Oxx wasn't to be pinned down about Sea The Stars next engagement, but with constant rain in Ireland recently possibly ruling out the Irish Derby and Champion Stakes, it seems that the Coral Eclipse at Sandown next month may be where he will pop up next.
Despite the obvious appeal of the Triple Crown, it is highly unlikely that the connections will go for a shot at the St Leger at Doncaster.
Oxx said: 'I'm a believer in the Triple Crown and I think it will be won in the future, all the fashionable stallions are Galileo, Montjeu, Dalakhani.
'One of these days one of these sires will win the Guineas, it won't be a question about whether he runs in the St Leger, but whether he runs in the Guineas.
'But if I turned around to Mick and entered him into the St Leger, he would think that I was losing my marbles!'
Oxx also highlighted that the pace was not a factor, either. He said: 'The pace was slightly slower than his liking, as mile and a half horses were leading a Guineas winner. I think he would be better with a quicker pace.'

Derby result:
1: Sea the Stars
2: Fame And Glory
3: Masterofthehorse
There is a moment in your life when you have given everything that you have got, and it simply isn't enough. Today, I was downed by greatness. All of that research, all of those silly figures were firmly put into the shade by the best Derby performance in the last 20 years. Fair enough, those that make the ratings may not think this is one of the best, but to win the Guineas, and then to go on and win the Derby, it was sensational.
It looked a slow pace, but as Sea the Stars swept into the lead at the furlong pole, the way he powered up the hill made a mockery of anyone who had the temerity to lay him. I can't quite claim to losing the millions that the bookies' will be bleating about over the next few hours, but my god that hurt.
It was also the first time since Nijinsky that foreign-trained horses have shut out British opposition, which now has only happened four times in the entire 230-year history of the race.

3pm result
1: 20 Indian Trail
2: 8 Captain Dunne
3: 4 Strike Up The Band
4: 5 Oldjoesaid
The prophet Graham Cunningham told you so. Get on Captain Dunne and lay off for your life. Captain Dunne dropped to [1.8] in-running.

Alright everyone. If you haven't got your bet on by now, you're likely to put on a rushed bet. Let me help you. Sea The Stars won't win, and if he does, he'll have to be the best horse since Nijinsky. I've delved into those dosage indices a little bit more, and guess what. Nijinsky's dosage index was also 3.00, just like Sea the Stars. Nijinsky was trained by the great, and now late, Vincent O'Brien. What a story that would be...

The other thing punters should be looking out for is a big-priced place horse. Terimon was
500-1 when second to Nashwan in 1989, Blue Judge and Blues Traveller were both 150-1 when second and third to Commander In Chief and Dragon Dancer was also 150-1 when second by a short head to Sir Percy a few years ago. Debussy or Montaff then? I've backed Debussy for a place at [13.5], but James Willoughby of the Racing Post reckons he won't finish in the first half a dozen. And Mick Channon is very bullish about Montaff's chances. He said: 'The form is there, I think he's a good horse and whatever he does today, he can only get better.
'I wouldn't have come here if I thought he was a 50-1 shot, and he is as good a three-year-old as I have had.
'He's certainly as good as Youmzain at the same stage in his career and I wanted to run him in the Derby.'
If he's as good as Youmzain, he see trouble in running and motor home to finish in a place. A great prospect for those place backers...

Anyway this is my 1-2-3 for what it is worth. 1: Fame and Glory 2: Black Bear Island 3: Debussy. Yep, put that in your Tricast and smoke it...

Anyone keen on backing the Woodcote winner Corporal Maddox for Royal Ascot's Coventry Stakes should hold fire (he's a 14-1 shot right now). Winning trainer Karl Burke said: 'I spoke to the owners before he ran today and said that win, lose, or draw we probably wouldn't be going to Royal Ascot after today.'
'Jim Crowley [the winning jockey] said to go for the Coventry, but I think it would probably come a bit too quick as it is less than two weeks away and the horse is still a bit of a baby.
'I think we will wait for the July meeting at Newmarket.'

2.25pm result:
1: 2 Eva's Request
2: 1 Alnadana
3: 4 Spacious

It was right to bin Specious, although place layers must be slightly miffed. Anyway, onwards. Next up, The Dash. I have absolutely no idea. Now that may be the general feeling among you readers in a more general sense, but this race looks very tricky. Try Graham Cunningham's sage advice, for those who haven't read it yet.
'Give close consideration to Captain Dunne as a back to lay candidate. This £75,000 handicap will be done and dusted in around 55 seconds and, although it's perfectly possible to win it from off the pace, the ideal candidate in my book is a well handicapped horse with bags of early speed and a draw which gives him the chance to race fairly close to the stand rail. Step forward Captain Dunne.'
Pricewise in the Racing Post has gone for Little Pete at 16-1, but the Andrew Balding four-year-old can still be backed at [17.5] on Betfair.
A curious tip. Willie Muir was so keen to back Wi Dud that he went to the ring and tried to back it before the 2.25pm had even gone off. He is convinced it is going to win, and didn't even want to discuss other horses. It is the favourite mind you.

1.55pm result
1: 3 Corporal Maddox
2: 12 Walkingonthemoon
3: 10 Red Avalanche

I just couldn't get out at the right price. Having backed Red Avalanche, I was hoping that the price would dip to something like [2.0] but I was being far too greedy, and the lowest he got to was [3.0]. Anyway, great ride by Jim Crowley on the winner.

Back to the state of the going. After it has rained for almost six hours the clerk of the course has decided to change the going to 'Good'. Or should be 'officially good'?
If you don't believe him, Eddie Ahern, who won on River Captain in the first, said: 'It is good but it is a bit loose on top.' that could mean that the top flies off over the next few races and we will be back to where we started this morning.
Neil Callan, rider of Union Island was bit more specific. He said: 'The new strip of ground is definitely the place to be, the old turf is a bit poached. The new strip rode good.'
For those who don't know where this potentially hollowed piece of turf is, the running rail on the far side from the six-furlong start to the winning post was removed last night. Low numbers for those who just operate in figures.

On to the 2.25pm. Although this race is open to three-year-olds, it may pay to skip the Classic generation. I'm not saying that the bottom four won't win, it is just that in the last ten years, the younger fillies have only won three, the last of which was in 2002.
There isn't a trainer in better form at the moment than Michael Jarvis, who has a strike-rate of 50% with his 16 runners over the last fortnight. His Red Dune [8.8] merits serious consideration. Fair enough, she needs to prove that she stays at least a mile, but her breeding suggests she will stay and she is likely to have her own way up front. I think the price is more than fair for a trainer in such scintillating form.
Spacious [2.76] may have the best form, but I'm not totally convinced by her, but George from Cheam (why are you not here today, it is so close!) makes a fair point that 'favourites have won six of the last ten runnings,' of this race. You've also got to have a sneak peak at the French challenger, Alnadana [6.8], Alain de Royer-Dupre's only runner here today.

I have one horse. Red Avalanche for the 1.55pm. In 11 of the last 14 runnings of this, the winner has come from stalls 1-3. Red avalanche is in the three slot. He was second to Star rover on his debut, and if nothing else, he's been heavily backed.
I have utmost respect for Desert Quest, but there is just something about the Avalanche...

1.25pm result
1: 6 River Captain
2: 16 Tepmokea
3: 14 Lasso The Moon
4: 5 History Lesson

You've got to love it. Some lucky blighter had £6 at [42] on River Captain, a horse who had won here already this season. Also, the Queen's horse snuck into the placings, so I bet Her Majesty is now glad she came here and left Prince Charles to the French.
I'm not the best judge of pace at the best of times, but I was expecting something a little less pedestrian to be honest. I'll get a going description from the jockeys in a sec.

This 1.25pm is all about pace in my book. Goliath's Boy, Dialogue, History Lesson, London Bridge, and Tepmokea have all set the pace in their careers before. There should be no hiding places in this one. Of those just mentioned, London Bridge has been the big drifter, while Tepmokea has come in, having been matched on Betfair at [25.0] and is now trading at around [11.0].
Sir Michael Stoute unleashed Conduit on this race last year, and the knight of the realm has saddled the favourite in this race for the last four years. Marching Time again heads the list for him at [4.5]. The Sadler's Wells colt likes to be held up, so the lightning pace may well suit him, but I'm not so sure at this track. I'm titling at windmills in this one. Clive Brittain's Saa'ida looks a lively outsider, and having been successful around Goodwood last time out, he should find this idiosyncratic course to his liking...

Oooh, didn't she look lovely. Are you allowed to say anything else?
A word with Aidan O'Brien himself, who was looking resplendent in a yellow mac/trenchcoat thingy. Amazing that even though it is still raining, the master of Ballydoyle still finds it necessary to wear sun glasses.

He is still unsure about which horse of his is going to come out on top, which is probably why he has entered half a dozen. It was interesting to note that the training regimes of all six barely changed after the Guineas, so the likes of RVW and Fame And Glory continued to work over distances of 7f up to 1m2f.

Down the card he looked at every single runner, and was convinced that most of them would stay. This Derby looks a proper test. He was obviously hesitant when it came to Sea the Stars, but he thought that Jim Bolger's Gan Amhras was a decent animal.

Five minutes until Her Majesty arrives. The military band, massed in ranks on the course, are surely playing havoc with clerk of the course Andrew Cooper's best-laid plans. Forgive my knowledge of classical music, but I believe they are churning out Mussorgsky's Night on a Bare Mountain. Is it bear, or bare? I don't know. Anyway, why aren't they playing any Debussy in deference to one of this afternoon's place possibilities in the Derby?

Sheer vitriol. It is as if some of you think I've had a go Jesus or something. One of the more publishable correspondences: "Sea the Stars is a true champion. He won over a mile on yielding, and seven furlongs over heavy. That should mean he gets the trip," said Jonathan from Stoke.
Look, all I'm saying is that Sea The Stars is unlikely to stay the distance as much as his odds might suggest. I mean Oxx went on record the other day to say that his charge was only 50-50 to stay anyway. Take some of my money off Betfair then...

David Hastings, long-time racing photographer makes a good point about betting on the Derby. 'Most of them will be in it at Tattenham Corner anyway, it is a good place to assess the race,' he said. Quite. All those punters wanting to back the favourite should wait. If Sea The Stars really is a 50-50 chance to stay, you'll probably have a better chance of knowing by the time they enter the straight. As Matt Williams wrote in this week's Weekender: 'Knowing beats thinking any day of the week...'

Ok gang. Bear with me here. This is my first missive about why Sea The Stars is far too short for this year's Derby. I know John Oxx is one of the shrewdest trainers around, and that is why I am only going to deal with facts here, not conjecture. What do I know when compared to the man who has already tasted Derby success?

Since the great Nijinsky pulled off the Triple Crown in 1970 there have been 15 2,000 Guineas winners considered good enough to attempt the 1m4f of Epsom. Only one succeeded, and that was Nashwan, considered one of the greatest racehorses of all time.

I have looked at the Dosage indices of all the 2,000 Guineas winners to run in the Derby since Nashwan, and most of them seemed to have won the 2,000 Guineas, despite being stoutly bred types, rather than speedily-bred types looking to step up to the staying plate like Sea The Stars. If you don't know what a dosage index is, no matter. Basically, it is a breeding indication, and no more, and what you are looking at is that the average Dosage Index of Derby winners over the last decade is just over 1.0.
So, the Dosage indices of the 2,000 Guineas winners in question are as follows:

2,000 Guineas winners in the Derby going back to Nashwan
(courtesy of pedigreequery.com)
Date Horse Finished Dosage Index
2003: Refuse To Bend 13th 1.05
2001: Golan 2nd 0.6
1998: King Of Kings 15th 1.78
1997: Entrepreneur 4th 1.17
1995: Pennekamp 11th 0.54
1994: Mr Baileys 4th 2.33
1992: Rodrigo de Triano 9th 3.67
1991: Mystiko 10th 2.75
1989: Nashwan WON 1.34

Dosage indices of the last ten Derby winners:

2008: New Approach 0.89
2007: Authorized 0.86
2006: Sir Percy 0.54
2005: Motivator 1.43
2004: North Light 1.13
2003: Kris Kin 1.05
2002: High Chaparral 0.82
2001: Galileo 1.11
2000: Sinndar 1.56
1999: Oath 1.86

And what do you think the Dosage Index of Sea the Stars is? It is as big as 3.00, which indicates that this year's 2,000 Guineas winner has little chance of showing his abilities over Epsom's undulating camber....

Anyone and everyone has their opinion on Derby Day. Bill, my bus driver this morning, scoffed at my opinion that Sea the Stars will get beat, but he then ventured that Rip Van Winkle would win. He's been drifting like the Mary Celeste since yesterday from around [6.0] to as is as big as [7.8].
Wouldn't you just hate to be Johnny Murtagh? You are one of the best jockeys on show today. You make your choice to ride RVW from what you've seen on the gallops and everyone jumps on your back. And doubts your selection. All the bookies' representatives report it as a big drifter, too, with the lines like 'can't give it away' being bandied about.

Good morning all, and welcome to a depressing, drizzle-sodden Epsom on Derby Day. If I write anything that vexes you, please do get in contact at: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com
Otherwise, it will be good to hear from anyone else out there in Cyberspace. Any tips, any news, or opinions, send them over, because that is what this game is all about.

Although it has been raining lightly since 7am this morning only a millimetre of rain has fallen on these famous downs. It means that the going remains the same as yesterday: Good, Good to Firm in places. Going stick fans will want the decimals, and they are 8.4.

It's an austere day for everyone today as it is the 65th anniversary of the D-Day landings, which should mean that Her Majesty is over in Normandy. Instead, Prince Charles has taken on the role of reminding Sarkozy and friends of Britain's actual involvement in France during the Second World War. If you have missed the whole thing, Google 'Sarkozy D-Day slur' and you won't be surprised to see articles from the Sun, Telegraph and Daily Mail at the top of the list.

For all those who backed Party Politics in the 1992 Grand National due to the co-incidence of the General Election of that year, Richard Hannon runs History Lesson in the first race of the day. It currently trades at [34.0] on Betfair. It would be a great way to get the day started...

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