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Epsom Derby Betting: Top tips on the eve of the Derby

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While some say the Derby is the greatest race in the world, others counter that the last five winners have won just one race between them from 16 subsequent starts.
But Derby day still represents soul food for anyone who relishes top-class flat racing. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is anticipating a hectic days' punting on a card which has something for everyone.

1.40
Few Betfair punters will need reminding that securing the right price is crucial whether you are backing or laying. And fewer still will need reminding that opposing improvers trained by Sir Michael Stoute can be very risky.

But if the odds are right - and by that I mean [3.7] or shorter - I will be happy to oppose Conduit in this opener. Granted, he was a shade unfortunate at Sandown, where he was short of room on the inner. However, he looks essentially a stayer and I expect him to trade longer than his Betfair SP in running.

Tajweed's Redcar win looks very solid in the light of recent wins for Full Speed and Laterly, while First Avenue, Rochefort and Ramona Chase all have plenty in their favour. However, Midships catches the eye as one with clear back-to-lay potential. Amanda Perrett's colt finished just ahead of Conduit at Sandown and progressed again when worn down late in a hot handicap at Newbury. He looks the sort to glide round Epsom and his odds will shorten appreciably if Jim Crowley kicks him for home early in the straight.

Suggestion: Lay Conduit. Back Midships win and place and lay to save the stakes at [4.5] and [1.5].

2.10
Last year's winner Declaration Of War emerged from stall 11, but the previous six came from boxes 1, 2, 1, 3, 5 and 2. Smokey Storm is the theoretical form choice based on his Goodwood second to the subsequent National Stakes winner Icesolator - and stall 3 is an added plus - but he didn't look anything special in getting up close home at Brighton and I'll take him on if he trades at under [4.0].

Able Master's 5lb penalty for a Beverley win is off putting, while Full Of Nature needs to improve on her Newmarket form, so Indian Art and Fivefootnumberone are the two who appeal as alternatives to the likely favourite. Indian Art isn't ideally drawn in box 10. He impressed with the way he travelled at Goodwood, though, while Fivefootnumberone will relish this step up to six furlongs after coming home powerfully to land a Haydock maiden.

Suggestion: Lay Smokey Storm and back Indian Art and Fivefootnumberone.

2.40
Gerard Butler needs another flagship horse after changing stables recently and Baharah could be a suitable candidate based on the way she quickened to land an Ascot handicap off 105. The placed horses Kasumi and Fragrancy have made that form look very solid indeed and, given that she is lightly raced with a tidy turn of foot, it will come as a big surprise if Baharah doesn't play a significant role here.

French raider Cicerole has been highly consistent at this sort of level, while Enforce and Lady Gloria are both live place contenders based on the form they showed to dominate the finish to a Listed race at Goodwood last month.
Selinka is no forlorn hope if fully tuned up for her reappearance, but Jamboretta and Barshiba both appeal as potential lay material. Stoute has won this race for the last two years with Echelon, but it's hard to see why Jamboretta should reverse Ascot form with Baharah.

Barshiba has bags of natural ability but plenty of quirks to go with it. She tends to pull hard under restraint and could find Epsom's undulations a real problem if her headstrong nature rears its head again.

Suggestion: Back Baharah win and place. Lay Barshiba to win and Jamboretta for a place.

3.15
Much will be said and written about the effects of the draw in this helter skelter sprint, but winners have come from high and low over the last decade and luck in running may well prove more important than post position.
A clear run can never be guaranteed for hold-up merchants like Hogmaneigh, but he powered home to win this race last year and is well treated again having shaped with plenty of promise in a hot handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day.
Holbeck Ghyll also ran a cracker for fourth last year and returns in the form of his life having been pipped close home over six at Newbury. He's versatile tactically and Andrew Balding's team remain in fine fettle.

Of the rest, Masta Plasta came back to form with a vengeance under Adele Rothery at York last week and forcing tactics plainly suited him. I would be lying if I said that his rider's lack of Epsom experience didn't bother me, while his stablemate Tournedos could also be in trouble if he gets as far behind as he did before swooping late to win at York in May.

Suggestion: Back Hogmaneigh and Holbeck Ghyll. Lay Masta Plasta and Tournedos for a place.

4.00
I was half joking in last week's blog when wondering whether New Approach would be left in the Derby "in error" again. The rights and wrongs of his presence are academic now, though, and it's time to get off the fence and assess the best bets.
In short, I'm with Tartan Bearer, Doctor Fremantle, and Curtain Call. I'm unsure which way to jump with New Approach, while I'm against Casual Conquest and Tajaaweed.

Tartan Bearer came from last to first to pip Frozen Fire in the Dante and ran straight as a gun barrel as things got tight. He's thriving and looks sure to run a big race.

Curtain Call beat little on his reappearance but is a very solid stayer with clear place credentials, while Doctor Fremantle gave the impression there is much more to come in the Chester Vase. The more I watch that race the more I suspect he is a live one.

Now to the negatives. Any horse who wins a Derrinstown Derby Trial by six lengths is dangerous to oppose, but Casual Conquest didn't impress on the bend. I don't want him to cost me bundles but I am anxious to keep him as a loser, while Tajaaweed plainly improved in the Dee Stakes, but this is much tougher and his stamina isn't guaranteed.

As ever, there is the temptation to "nick" a few quid with a place lay of suspect stayers. It's hard to see why Rio De La Plata should relish a searching stamina test like this one, while River Proud is another who will surely struggle to get home.

Suggestions: Back Doctor Fremantle win and place. Lay Casual Conquest to win and Tajaaweed, Rio De La Plata and River Proud for a place.

4.45
Another highly complex handicap which will be very hard to solve. I'm inclined to be against Capable Guest despite his gutsy Redcar success given that his stamina looks suspect at this trip, but Chester winner Mull Of Dubai will have no problem showing his best over twelve furlongs.

Useful jumpers Bureaucrat and Misty Dancer will also attract interest and the latter boasts a fine Epsom record, while Bandama and John Terry give Amanda Perrett a fair hand as she bids to repeat last year's win with Nosferatu

Players Please will be a factor if back to the form he showed at Ascot last autumn, but my two against the field are Aureate and Dzesmin. With hindsight, Aureate was probably sent for home a shade too early at Chester last time and his smooth travelling style gives him clear potential as a back to lay option. He rates the main bet in the race, while Dzesmin hasn't shown a massive amount of late but may well have been trained with this in mind given that he finished fourth despite being badly checked twelve months ago.

Suggestion: Back Aureate win and place and lay to save the stakes at 5 and 1.5 respectively. Save on Dzesmin.

5.20
Best to get the stats out of the way first and the key ones are that Dandy Nicholls has won five of the last ten renewals and the last six winners have come from stalls 9, 5, 3, 1, 2, and 7.
Joseph Henry and Machinist look the pick of the Nicholls quartet this time given that they line up on the back of very solid efforts in similarly hot handicaps, but Gift Horse has been very frustrating since winning this in 2005 and Obe Gold will be in big trouble if his lazy streak rears its head early from stall 16.

Of the rest, I find it very hard to fancy Rising Shadow given that he needed every inch to get up on deep ground at Ripon this week. Stall 17 is a concern for Pearly Wey, while a fast six like Epsom looks sharp for Skhilling Spirit.

Finally, a word on Prince Namid and Idle Power. Prince Namid has finished second in the last two runnings of this race but connections will be frustrated by the fact that he is 4lb out of the handicap, while Idle Power is another who loves Epsom and should give a good account despite the fact that stall 15 is far less than ideal.

Suggestion: Back Joseph Henry and Machinist. Lay Obe Gold and Rising Shadow for a place.

6 June 2008 / About Graham Cunningham

Tags: Aureate, Back Baharah, Back Doctor Fremantle, Casual Conquest, Conduit, Derby, Dzesmin, Epsom, First Avenue, Fivefootnumberone, Hogmaneigh and Holbeck Ghyll, Horseracing, Indian Art, Jamboretta, Joseph Henry, Laterly, Lay Barshiba, Masta Plasta, Midships, Obe Gold, Rio De La Plata, Rising Shadow, River Proud, Rochefort, Smokey Storm, Tajaaweed, Tajweed, Tournedos /

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