Epsom Derby Betting / Graham Cunningham / 05 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Fresh from flagging up Sariska for the Oaks, Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is strong on Fame And Glory and pinpoints a host of other trading angles on the most significant Saturday of the entire Flat season.

The king is dead, long live the king. A week that began with news of the death of legendary trainer Vincent O'Brien seems likely to end with a third Derby success for his namesake and Ballydoyle successor Aidan O'Brien.

The great MV O'Brien seldom wasted words and nor does AP O'Brien, for that matter. If it's good enough for those two it's certainly good enough for me, so here is my seven-point plan to making Derby day 2009 enjoyable and profitable.


1: Don't get sucked into the idea that Rip Van Winkle is the Ballydoyle number one just because Johnny Murtagh has chosen him. Michael Kinane gave away a Derby winner to Murtagh when he opted for Hawk Wing over High Chapparal and there's every chance Murtagh is doing the same to Seamie Heffernan this time around. The Ripper plainly works like a champion and "Johnny has a thing about the horse" according to Aidan. But Rip Van Winkle races freely and is related to speed horses. Doubts about his stamina have nagged away ever since his Guineas fourth and, put simply, if he wins I lose.

2: Don't assume Sea The Stars has too much pace to stay a mile-and-a-half. Granted, 20 years have elapsed since Nashwan became the last horse to do the Guineas and Derby double, but Sea The Stars made the Guineas look a routine day's work in the end and any horse by the sire of Ouija Board out of an Arc winner who has produced Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy is bred to have every chance of staying twelve furlongs. Anything over 3-1 is a very fair price. And anyone who backs him at that price will have every chance of trading out at much shorter passing the two pole.

3: Do consider taking a big price about Golden Sword with a view to laying off in-running at much shorter odds. The thinking behind this revolves around the belief that he is under rated and highly likely to travel strongly on the pace for much longer than most people expect. If you doubt him, take a look at the way he galloped useful rivals like Debussy and Sight Unseen into submission in the Chester Vase. Admittedly, Masterofthehorse would have given him more to think about ridden more prominently. But Golden Sword - who is very stoutly bred and plainly thriving - is more than twice the price of Masterofthehorse on Betfair. And that can't be right.

4: Don't be put off by the fact that Fame And Glory has eased in the market since Murtagh deserted him. First, it isn't as if Murtagh is a stranger to picking the wrong one. And second, Fame And Glory has much of what is necessary in a potential Derby winner. First, he's bred to relish the trip; second, he's an unbeaten Group 1 winner; and third, he is plainly still on the up based on commanding wins in the same Irish trials which O'Brien used as a springboard for previous Derby winners High Chapparal and Galileo. I suspect Sea The Stars will stay, but I am convinced Fame And Glory will relish this trip. And that means he has to be my number one choice.

5: Do expect the British-trained quartet to endure a torrid time. There seems no reason why Debussy should beat Golden Sword or Masterofthehorse on Chester form, while Montaff is useful and progressive but looks set to come up short at this level. And then we have Kite Wood and Crowded House. No beaten Dante runner has ever won the Derby and this pair finished fifth and eighth behind Black Bear Island at York. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kite Wood run well and make the first five. But it would surprise me to see Crowded House make the first three and he holds definite place lay potential at around 5 or slightly longer.

6: Do keep an eye on the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at 2.25. I'm lukewarm on Spacious, who has a fine chance at her best but has flattered to deceive and comes from a yard which has endured a quiet first third to the season. Laying her is one option, though those who prefer trying to find the winner might find Eva's Request the each way value. Mick Channon's filly failed to make the frame in this last year, but she's a much better filly nowadays and the way she bolted up in a Goodwood Listed race suggests she's in the form of her life at present.

7: Do give close consideration to Captain Dunne as a back to lay candidate in the Investec Dash at 3.00. This £75,000 handicap will be done and dusted in around 55 seconds and, although it's perfectly possible to win it from off the pace, the ideal candidate in my book is a well handicapped horse with bags of early speed and a draw which gives him the chance to race fairly close to the stand rail. Step forward Captain Dunne, who boasts excellent early pace and signalled that he is right back on song when collared close home by Biniou at Thirsk three weeks ago. Captain Dunne would probably have won had he not drifted left late on that day. However, he races from the same mark here and anyone who backs him at a double figure price on Betfair will have bright prospects of saving their stake at much shorter odds with a furlong to run.