Epsom Derby Betting: Sectional times are your friend, but keep an eye on the pace of the race

Epsom Derby Betting / Simon Rowlands / 02 June 2008 / 3 Comments

Simon Rowlands breaks his Derby duck this year. No, he's not riding, or even running for that matter. He's doing something else entirely.

I have sneaked off junior school to watch it, won several weeks' pocket money as a sixth-former on it (by siding with Shergar in 1981), stood to win a small fortune on it (Salford City, fifth in 2004) and been there in person when Nashwan, Generous and Motivator each won it by five lengths.

However, one thing I have never done on the Derby is bet in-running... until now.

As with other forms of betting, it pays to do your homework where in-running is concerned. To this end I looked at all Derbys from 1990 onwards to see what sorts of running styles have tended to come good.

For a start, of the leaders "entering the straight" in those 18 Derbys, only two - Benny The Dip in 1997 and North Light in 2004 - have hung on for success. Another four leaders have finished second or third. So that's [9.0] the leader over 3f out to win and [3.0] for it to be placed based on precedent.

The winner has come from front, middle and back in that period, as you might expect, though never from plum last (High-Rise was nearest, having three behind him in 1998).

The eventual winner has, on average, had approximately 70% of its rivals behind it turning in. That would mean fifth place in a 15-runner field. This, more or less, used to be known as the Lester Piggott Position, due to the Long Fella's uncanny ability to have his mount swinging off the bit on the heels of the leaders at this juncture; year in, year out.

Before anyone thinks I have taken leave of my sectional-timing senses, it must be emphasised that optimum running position "depends". It depends on the state of the surface, the abilities of the horses, the prospect of getting a clear run and more. It depends more than anything on the pace of the race.

Perhaps I should have admitted earlier that I have spent far too many Derbys getting excited about just how quickly or how slowly the runners are going to appreciate the full majesty of the occasion.

There is a crossing fractionally after the start of the home straight that will forever have a special place in my heart: I may ask to be buried there some day. I have timed the vast majority of Derbys - plus many Oaks, Coronation Cups and numerous more mundane races - from the end of that crossing to the winning line since 1969. I fear this admission is something certain people will seize upon and use against me...

The evidence is that, in order to run the extended one and a half miles at Epsom quickly - in an efficient manner, in other words - you need to reach this juncture in about 73.8% of your overall time, assuming ground no softer than good to soft (it would be slightly less than that % in the mud).

Lammtarra (112.7 sec, 74% on firm) got it very nearly "right" in 1995, High-Rise (113.6 sec, 73.8% on good to firm) got it spot on in 1998, as did High Chaparral (117.7 sec, 73.8% on good to soft) in 2002. Last year, Authorized (114.6 sec, 74% on good) was only fractionally slower to the sectional than ideal.

On the other hand, Nijinsky (75% in 1970) and Galileo (75.2% in 2001) flew home after running the first part of their races slower than optimum. Shergar (72.4% in 1981) was much slower from the turn, but that was down to a strong early pace and his being allowed to coast in the closing stages.

This is of more than just academic interest, for if you can assess the state of the ground accurately from earlier races and project the time the Derby winner "should" run, you can figure out whether the race is being run in a manner that should favour those lying handily or those nearer the back. For instance, for a time of 156 sec (typical of a good-going Derby), you should be looking for splits of approximately 115.1 sec and 40.9 sec.

The same principles apply to the Oaks and the Coronation Cup, though it should be pointed out that the latter race has hardly ever been truly run in modern times. Indeed, Swain (a lightning-quick 36.8 sec in the 1996 Coronation Cup) holds the "record" for the fastest finishing sectional at course and distance over Galileo (38.0 sec, in aforementioned Derby) and Alexandrova (38.3 sec in the 2006 Oaks) in absolute terms.

Even if you don't fancy getting involved in such messy calculations and putting them into practice in the heat of the moment, sectional analysis should help you to figure out what went on and why. That may be crucial when the principals turn out again.

I think I may just give it a go "as live" this year on the in-running markets. Then again, I may just sit back and watch my ante-post bet Casual Conquest (hopefully) coming home nicely in front.

Comments (3)

1. Simon Rowlands | 06 June 2008

   A quick update on this with the first three races on the Friday having been run and the Coronation Cup and Oaks imminent.

   The times of the first three races were all slower than might be expected for officially "good" going, and in none of the races did this appear to be down to a slow early pace.

   Blythe Knight ran 8.52f in 105.50 sec and the closing 3f and a bit sectional in 40.0 sec.

   Little White Lie ran the same trip in 105.47 sec and the sectional in 40.2 sec

   Emirates Skyline ran 10.08f in 129.56 sec and the sectional in 41.4 sec

   The times for the Coronation Cup and the Oaks should be slower than predicted, at least 157 sec for the former and 159 sec for the latter.

   The "ideal" opening sectionals should therefore be about 116.0 sec for the Coronation Cup and 117.5 sec for the Oaks.

   We shall see!

   Simon Rowlands

2. Simon Rowlands | 07 June 2008

   I am not sure if it was by luck or judgement, but I managed to get the two races "right" in running!

   Macarthur got to the sectional in 115.5 sec in the Coronation Cup - at least 3 lengths quicker than the projected ideal - and paid for it late on by weakening, but only after he had been matched at a low of 2.52 in play on Betfair. Soldier of Fortune came from 6 to 7 lengths back at that stage to win in a time of 156.83 sec, and was matched at an in-running high of 8.2.

   Miracle Seeker got to the sectional in the Oaks in 115.9 sec, closely pursued by Lush Lashes (in-running low of 2.26) and Chinese White (in-running low of 3.0), and all three paid for it late on. Look Here came from a "better" position about 4 lengths back at this juncture for an impressive success.

   The overall time recorded by Look Here (156.89 sec) was a good deal quicker than I had forecast, however, and points both to the ground being less testing than I had imagined and Look Here being a genuinely high-class filly, for all that her success took most by surprise.

   The ground did appear to be just on the easy side of good, but it is drying all the time in South West London and could well be just about perfect for the big race at 4:00 today.

   I think we should be looking for a "split" of about 115 sec dead, but things will become clearer after the early races on the card.

3. Simon Rowlands | 07 June 2008

   The first race at Epsom on Saturday gave a good guide to the state of the ground (and to the fact that the course is dolled out slightly less than it was on Friday), with Conduit looking a horse with a big future in coming from well off a good pace to win in 126.37 sec (excellent final sectional of 39.0 sec).

   It is genuinely good ground, similar to when Authorized won the Derby 12 months ago in 154.77 sec and when Motivator won in 2005 in 155.69 sec. That pair got to the sectional in about 114.5 sec (Authorized finishing the stronger from that point) and a similar time is likely to be optimum for the winner of this year's race. Faster than that would indicate that the leaders have probably gone too hard and something could well come from the back.

   Fingers crossed!