Epsom Derby Ante-Post Odds: Stay with the stayers at the season's next Classic

Epsom Derby Betting / Simon Rowlands / 27 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Simon Rowlands focuses on the forthcoming Derby where Fame And Glory has assumed favouritism.

The bloke who penned the words "hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life" probably did not have the non-appearance of King's Miracle at Salisbury last week in mind, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that the same happy outcome will apply (I'd prefer a nice trophy to the tree of life, however, if it is not too much trouble).

Regular readers of this blog will be aware that, after much fanfare concerning the filly's intended first start in my colours, she was withdrawn at the 11th hour from her engagement after the Wiltshire track freakishly missed out on any of the rain that fell in biblical measure elsewhere.

So, instead of reviewing such an historic occasion, I will have to fill this week's offering with something else. King's Miracle is entered at Newbury on Saturday evening, when I will be at a wedding at the other end of the country, but I am making no assumptions about anything at this stage.

The Derby, to be run a week on Saturday, is a race of much less consequence, obviously, but Betfair has a market on it rather than on the Bathwick Tyres Maiden (their choice) so a quick look at how things are stacking up at Epsom seems justified.

Sea The Stars ([5.0] to win; [2.34] to place) has the best form, with his 2,000 Guineas win in a good time looking no worse now than it did at the time. As mentioned previously, however, there is a doubt about his staying: he is a half-brother to the Derby winner Galileo but is by Cape Cross, whose progeny seldom shine at as far as 1 1/2m, and he has yet to race at further than 1m.

Fame And Glory ([4.5] to win; [1.95] to place) has the best form shown at further than 1m, in his case through winning the 1 1/4m Derby Trial at Leopardstown by 5 lengths from Mourayan, in a style reminiscent of last year's subsequent Derby third Casual Conquest. There are very few doubts about his stamina, but there are doubts about whether he is even the best contender from the stable.

Rip Van Winkle ([7.0] to win; [3.6] to place) was fourth to Sea The Stars in the 2,000 Guineas, finishing well, but is far from guaranteed to stay an extra half mile as a son of Galileo but from a notably speedy dam's side. His prominence in the market owes as much to his reputation (he could well end up being the mount of Johnny Murtagh) as to his achievements.

Gan Amhras ([10.5] to win; [3.2] to place) was third in the 2000 Guineas and seems the likeliest of the principals from that race to stay 1 1/2m (by Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare) even though he is a few pounds short of Derby winning standard on current form.

Black Bear Island ([10.0] to win; [3.15] to place) showed an impressive turn of foot to come from last to win the Dante Stakes at York in a decent time and, as a brother to the Derby winner High Chaparral, promises to be even better at 1 1/2m. He needs to be, though, as his form as it stands is about 10 lb below usual Derby-winning level.

Freemantle ([27.0] to win; [5.8] to place) had his rivals in the Dante in trouble until tiring and being overhauled by Black Bear Island late on. Was that down to lack of stamina (possible, rather than probable) or lack of peak fitness? He is still quite a big price if you believe the latter.

Conclusion: it should pay to stick with likely stayers over established milers and to side with achievement over reputation. I am already on Freemantle and Gan Amhras ante-post and will be adding Black Bear Island to the portfolio. Doubtful stayer Rip Van Winkle is worth a place lay in my view.

* * *

Speaking of Derbys, I was at the semi-final of the greyhound equivalent at Wimbledon on Saturday night, and an enjoyable occasion it was, too.

I suspect most people within horseracing see greyhound racing as a cautionary tale of how not to run a sport. "Going to the dogs" was once an immensely popular pastime, particularly straight after the Second World War, but lost much of its appeal when it became "betting-shop fodder" from the 1960s onwards, with a monotonous diet of low-grade racing as filler between more attractive betting mediums. Attendances plummeted.

Sounds familiar?!

However, my night at Wimbledon compared favourably with an outing to "the races" in a few important ways. Certainly not in terms of the scandalous betting percentages and lack of initiative shown by the few on-course bookmakers (thank goodness for Betfair!) but in terms of being able to sit, in a degree of comfort, with a cheap beer and a bite to eat and see most or all of what was going on.

Horseracing, by comparison, seems to delight in imposing petty restrictions on the paying public while denying them a good view of proceedings and updates about developments, including from elsewhere.

If only I could have backed a few winners, rather than a plethora of seconds, I might just have been converted!