Epsom Derby Betting / Wayne Bailey / 29 May 2009 / 1 Comments

Fame And Glory still favourite, but Sea The Stars a massive danger if he makes the final line-up writes Wayne Bailey...

I risk sounding like an aftertimer here, but I must admit that I've backed Fame And Glory at [7.2] for the Derby so I'm not writing this article from a neutral perspective. He seemed a dead cert to win the Derrinstown at my local track (Leopardstown) and I was fairly sure his price would contract afterwards, so it made sense to take the odds on offer a few days before that race. Thankfully, he did go on to win the Derrinstown so I'm now in a good position with the option of laying off at [4.4].

It's a tough decision. In the pre-Betfair days, a nicely priced ante-post docket was a trophy of sorts, and one would carefully store it away until the big day arrived. Nowadays, we have the option to lay off for a free bet (or a green book), but if the horse actually goes on to win, we can be left feeling a bit empty.

So for that reason, I've decided to let the bet stand even though I'm starting to side with Sea The Stars as the Derby approaches. Fame And Glory can't be faulted and has built a lovely picket fence beside his name. He showed plenty of authority when winning the Derrinstown and is definitely a smart horse. But from a form point of view, beating Mourayan and Fergus McIver was nothing new and he's yet to prove himself on the big stage in the UK. He didn't mind the travel when winning the Group one Criterium de Saint-Cloud back in November and it's fair to say that he has improved with every race. Crucially for ante-post backers, he's a versatile sort than can handle most ground and has clocked up wins on ground ranging from heavy to good.

But he hasn't encountered firm ground as yet, so keep one eye on the weather. In short, I'm happy to be on at [7.2], but I don't think I'd accept [4.4] for a horse that still has a little bit to prove.

Meanwhile, Sea The Stars' participation could be in doubt and John Oxx has told the Racing Post Weekender that his Newmarket 2,000 Guineas winning colt won't welcome any rain: "We want the ground riding fast next week at Epsom, with the obvious questions about his stamina limitations...I have to be honest and say I rate him only 50/50 to stay. If there were a wet week leading up to the race and plenty of cut, I would seriously consider not running him."

My own view is that Oxx will let him run but if you are thinking of backing him, I'd advise you to wait until the day and possibly accept a slightly lower price. Oxx is a shrewd man and has a great knack of placing his horses in the right races - so if he lets Sea The Stars run, it can be taken as a vote of confidence.

Unfortunately, I backed Mastercraftsman at Newmarket, but there's no taking away from Sea The Stars' win and this son of Cape Cross is sure to win more races. Indeed, his half-brother won the Derby in 2001 (Galileo) and he ticks all the right boxes for me.

On a side note, it's a little disappointing to see the home team so weak and the vast majority of entries are Irish trained. As an Irishman, I'm very proud of O'Brien, Oxx and Bolger - but it would make things more interesting if we had a stronger British challenge. Perhaps some of the big trainers are saving some for Royal Ascot, a meeting I'm hoping to attend for the first time this year.
Advice: Back Sea The Stars at [4.0] or higher on the day of racing.