Epsom 2009 Betting: Patriotic Brits should look to Oaks for Classic winner

Epsom Derby Betting / Simon Rowlands / 02 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Despite only five of the 13 entered being trained in Britain, this year's Derby is set to be good one, says Simon Rowlands. However, if a home grown winner is your fancy, look to Friday in the Oaks...

I thought I was going to be original this week in playing on the "Britain's Got Talent" theme but over the last few days that pretty much every sub-editor and internet poster in the universe has had the same idea. The positioning of my blog in the news cycle means that I will appear woefully passé rather than an astute surfer of the zeitgeist. I hope you will bear with me.

Clearly, Britain has very little talent when it comes to the Derby, which I previewed last week. Only five of the 13 still entered for Saturday's race are trained in Britain, and their combined odds on Betfair imply a win probability of just 10.6%.

My long-range ante-post fancy, Freemantle, has been pulled out, leaving me siding with Gan Amhras and Black Bear Island against Rip Van Winkle in the place market. I see no reason to get more involved or to add substantially to the comments made last week. It does, however, look like being a good Derby, one that could just turn up a true great, despite the rather disappointing turnout in terms of numbers.

Things look much healthier for the home team on Friday in the Oaks, in which just two of the 12 still in the race are trained elsewhere. Perfect Truth ([11.5] to back on Betfair) and Oh Goodness Me ([22.0]) look to have their work cut out to take the prize back to Ireland.

Here are some views on the principals:

Sariska ([3.8] to win; [1.57] to place) won the Musidora Stakes at York in exemplary style and represents the best form at further than 1m by some way. She also promises to be at least as good at 1½m as at shorter and has hinted at versatility regarding the ground in just three starts to date. The stable, which got the preparation of Motivator for the Derby in 2005 spot on, is also ticking along nicely.

Rainbow View ([4.2] to win; [1.88] to place) was an exceptional two-year-old, winning all four of her races. But - and it is a big but - a Jennifer Lopez-sized butt even - she neither looks the type to be as good in her second season nor is anything like guaranteed to stay the Oaks trip. Her sire, Dynaformer, gained his biggest successes at 9f/1¼m and gets plenty of horses which do likewise. There is only a little encouragement on the dam's side that she can stay. Rainbow View also looked like a cat on a hot tin roof when only fifth on firm ground in the 1000 Guineas.

Midday ([5.5] to back; [1.92] to place) won the Lingfield Oaks Trial by six lengths in May, but her rivals were a desperate bunch on the whole and the time was lousy. She is more likely than most to give her running - she may be by the sprinter Oasis Dream but the Lingfield race was run at nearly the full Oaks trip - though that as it stands is unlikely to be good enough in my book.

Phillipina ([9.4] to back; [2.9] to place) would be the first maiden to win the Oaks since Sun Princess in 1983 but looks very much worth her place after a strong-finishing short-head second to Perfect Truth in the Cheshire Oaks. That race was run in a pretty good time, and Phillipina promises to get better the further she goes, in line with the dam's side of her family. It is a tip in itself that she is Sir Michael Stoute's only representative.

Perfect Truth ([11.5] to back; [3.4] to place) got off the mark in that Cheshire Oaks, in no small part due to an enterprising ride, having run seven times previously. She looks quirky and vulnerable to more progressive sorts. The stable's three-year-old fillies are nowhere near as good as its colts.

Conclusion...

The more I looked at the race, the more I thought that Sariska was a good bet, even as favourite. A price of [3.0] would be nearer the mark, in my opinion. I have got stuck in. It is tempting to place lay Rainbow View, though she could disappoint to a similar degree as at Newmarket and still sneak a top-three finish in a weak year. Phillipina looks best of those at bigger odds.

* * *

The price sometimes to be paid for being thrust into the limelight was starkly illustrated by Susan Boyle, runner-up in "Britain's Got Talent" and now receiving treatment for anxiety and exhaustion.

Unlike Boyle, my filly King's Miracle would not have known what fuss was being made of her - on these pages at least - but she, too, is going to be spending some time on the sidelines while she has her head sorted out. For just a few weeks I am told, and she still shows more than a little talent to go with her somewhat highly-strung nature.

I am more than hopeful that she will be hitting the right notes again soon. Fingers crossed for them both.

In the meantime, Horses First Racing has, in an act of remarkable generosity, transferred my lease from King's Miracle to an Aussie import called One Way Or Another for the duration of King's Miracle's rehab.

A quick search of "ozeform.com" revealed that the six-year-old gelding has won four races and well over 100,000 Aus dollars. He is entered on Derby Day, albeit at Doncaster rather than Epsom.

My colours - "white, yellow stripe, black cap" - look like being carried soon after all. One way or another.