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Epsom Derby Betting: How to adapt to the new market at Epsom

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Upheavals in the market for this year's Derby mean a change of tactics for many punters. In part two of his Derby preview, Ian Dean weighs up the recent evidence and suggests what your "new approach" may be.

With winter favourite Twice Over turned over, it's been all change at the head of the Derby market, Dermot Weld's Casual Conquest being the new incumbent as favourite following his dazzling Derrinstown Stud success.

There is the small matter of Casual Conquest [5.3] not being entered, however, and with the man from Co Kildare still to say 'Yes!' regards supplementing his charge, it is the prospect of Henrythenavigator's presence at Epsom that has ignited most interest.

Henrythenavigator [7.6] oozed class in Saturday's Irish 2,000 Guineas, confirming his mastery of New Approach from the Newmarket equivalent earlier in the month. The English Guineas appeared to be waning as a Derby trial, but the last 3 years have seen it provide a winner (Sir Percy), a second (Eagle Mountain) and a third (Dubawi) at Epsom, and Henrythenavigator is the superior of those.

Superior at a mile, that is, and the debate regarding his stamina will take up more column inches than slippery bends in the coming days.

Breeding, like statistics, can be used to support differing arguments. Those debating in favour of the motion can point out that his sire Kingmambo is already responsible for a St Leger winner (and Derby second) in Rule of Law, who furthermore had less stamina on the dam's side than Henry.

The doubters, though, would say he's bred to stay 12f in much the same way that Sakhee's Secret is bred to stay a mile, implying the speed he displays on the track supercedes the implications of pedigree. For them, Henry will need to be more than a navigator to get home at Epsom.

O'Brien's sole previous shot at the Derby with a Guineas winner went badly, with King Of Kings trailing in last and never raced again in 1998. However, connections may also be remembering the instance of their Guineas runner-up Hawk Wing.

A son of Woodman, Hawk Wing went to Epsom with similar doubts hanging over him. In fact, even to this day, it is considered by most that he didn't truly stay the Derby distance. Maybe so, but only the presence of his stable-companion High Chaparral prevented Hawk Wing from entering the record books as the widest margin winner in recent times, Shergar included!

There are other strings to the Ballydoyle bow, of course, notably Frozen Fire, as short as 6/1 in the high street. It's not easy to see him turning Dante tables with Tartan Bearer, though, and the current Betfair price of [14.0] is surely closer the mark.

Tartan Bearer [7.8] is bidding to go one better than his brother Golan in 2001, but given his illustrious pedigree and the Dante's excellent recent record at producing the Derby winner the reaction to his victory at York was on the restrained side.

Indeed, his current back price is not much more than a couple of points shorter than Sir Michael Stoute's other runners Tajaaweed [8.8] and Doctor Fremantle [10.5]. The nuts and bolts of that pair's Chester wins make them difficult to split from afar, and their proximity in the betting indicates those closer to them aren't any the wiser.

Connections' willingness to stump up £75,000 to supplement Doctor Fremantle suggests he doesn't lag far if at all behind his stable-mates, despite being beaten off 85 in a handicap less than six weeks ago. That the horse to beat him that day Bronze Cannon is also likely to line-up at Epsom illustrates that was no ordinary handicap. That said, Ryan Moore is believed to still favour Tartan Bearer (with Richard Hills claimed by the owner to ride Tajaaweed).

Luca Cumani's Curtain Call has become weak in the betting, out to [8.6] from a low of [5.5]. That may simply be a case of 'out of sight, out of mind'. Sure, many observers need more convincing of classic quality than his win in a 3-runner race at Nottingham offered, but that was also true at the time and not a reason for unease currently.

Ibn Khaldun [29.0] has received some positive mentions from the gallops since his Guineas flop and seems a more likely Godolphin runner than Rio De La Plata, but he hails from a family that already includes one Derby non-stayer in Barathea and promises to be another.

Whilst Godolphin's wait for a first Derby winner is set to go on, Stoute, O'Brien and Cumani have been there and got eight t-shirts between them. If they don't know what it takes to win the Derby, no one does, and punters will be hanging on their every word over the next two weeks.