Betfair | Derby Betting: Uncertainty over runners may force me to adopt a New Approach..

Derby Betting: Uncertainty over runners may force me to adopt a New Approach..

Simon Rowlands has been spending all his time trying to work out who will be running in the Derby, never mind trying to work out who will actually win it....

Horseracing fans have long been used to the Derby and Oaks being a guessing game - will he/she stay/handle the track/be good enough? - but the lead-in to this year's Epsom classics have taken things to a whole new level.

Never mind questions of ability and suitability, the main issue is that of which of the leading fancies will even run!

First-rate Derby trials have been run by New Approach (second in 2000 Guineas, [48.0] to back on Betfair) and by Casual Conquest (won Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial easily, [6.6] to back) but the former is reportedly most unlikely to run and the latter would have to be supplemented at considerable cost, something that connections seem less than keen to do.

Casual Conquest is my idea of a likely Derby winner, and odds of [4.0] and over should be taken if he is announced as a runner. As is commonly the case with these things, it would be no surprise if the decision on whether or not to run him in the June 7th classic was presaged by significant market movements on Betfair. I just hope that watching the race proves as enthralling as watching the ante-post market on it!

Casual Conquest's Leopardstown win was marginally in advance of Tartan Bearer's Dante win and further still ahead of Doctor Fremantle's and Tajaaweed's Chester wins in my book. Curtain Call has a bit to find, if you ask me, and missed a recent engagement due to the firm going, while it is still not clear whether Frozen Fire will be Aidan O'Brien's main standard bearer, only standard bearer, or not a standard bearer at all.

Lush Lashes understandably went to the head of the market (at [4.9]) for the Oaks on June 6th after an impressive success in the Musidora Stakes at York on Wednesday. But it quickly became apparent that trainer Jim Bolger was not a great deal keener on running the filly at Epsom than he was on running New Approach there the day after.

The other fillies' trials recently have been nothing to write home about. I have had a small place lay on Sail at [3.5] in The Oaks but will be feeling a bit foolish if that one proves to be the Ballydoyle "selected" from a team that includes Kitty Matcham ([12.0] to win) and the still-promising Moonstone ([16.5]).

Perhaps the most interesting candidate is the French-trained Gagnoa ([24.0]), winner of a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud last month, but, again, it seems by no means sure that she will turn up.

If you can figure out what's going to run, let alone what will happen in the race itself, then please post your thoughts below!

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Nearer at hand is the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury this Saturday, when 12 runners have been declared for the Group 1 mile event. A market is up on Betfair, and the most interesting runner is the ex-Aussie Haradasun, who may not even have to be as good as some people are saying he is to oblige with no obvious superstars up against him.

Odds of [4.7] to back look tempting, while anyone looking for a lay could do worse than consider Tariq once the place market warms up a bit. The extra furlong of this race, along with the prospect of another outing on firmish ground for this poor mover on what will be his reappearance, is enough to put me off him.

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You might have noticed a new market in the horse racing section of Betfair, under the header Breeding & Bloodstock. It is for the top first-season sire in 2008, judged on individual winning offspring in Britain and Ireland.

This interests the wannabe bloodstock agent and world-dominating billionaire owner in me, as well as the rather more plausible tight-fisted value seeker that I actually am. Well, when I say "value", in this instance it is more a case of there being almost six months of daily entertainment to be had before my bet officially bites the dust on November 8th.

I have had a few quid on Exceed and Excel (currently [5.0] to back on Betfair), as a result of discovering that he has more named representatives on Timeform's database than any other qualified sire and therefore should have plenty of runners.

It transpires that I am in good company, as Timeform's pedigree guru Stephen Heath is a fan also: "One Cool Cat ([2.60] to back) has made an impressive start, but the value could lie with Exceed and Excel. His yearlings sold for, on average, almost twice as much as One Cool Cat's, and trainers may well be hanging on to them more as longer-term prospects than simply early-season speedsters."

It may not be the most appropriate cliché to use where Exceed and Excel (who was very fast and should sire juveniles who have plenty of speed) is concerned, but the first-season-sire title is a marathon not a sprint. Here's hoping that the offspring of the former Aussie star last the distance.