Epsom Derby Betting / Ian Dean / 13 May 2008 / 1 Comments

Ian Dean runs through the Derby contenders' odds three weeks before the off

The weather may be 'scorchio' across the nation, but several of the summer's leading attractions have got a lukewarm feel about them. Festival goers are giving Glastonbury the swerve after one mud bath too many, while England's sorry failure to qualify means there are no reported outbreaks of Euro 2008 fever in these parts.

And in racing, the Derby is struggling to capture the imagination with little more than three weeks to the off. Indeed, after a week of inconclusive or irrelevant trials, the Blue Riband of the sport is still short of a cast list to sell to the public.

The 2,000 Guineas used to be seen as the best trial for Epsom, but times have changed and it's far from certain if any of the runners at Newmarket will double up. The winner, Henrythenavigator, is more likely to pursue a miling campaign, reflected in current back odds of [25.0], and the gallant second New Approach has the Irish Guineas as his immediate target.

Those idiosyncratic tracks Chester and Lingfield are not everyone's idea of fun, but the challenges they present a racehorse may not be bad preparation for Epsom and there's no denying both have thrown up their share of Derby victors.

Chester's Dee Stakes and Vase went in carbon-copy fashion to Tajaaweed and Doctor Fremantle respectively, both looking progressive in justifying good support and passing muster on the clock to boot.

Punters struggling to split them may be spared the headache, however, as Doctor Fremantle (in the same ownership as current favourite Twice Over) could wait for Royal Ascot and hence is seemingly neglected at [40.0], whereas Barry Hills' Tajaaweed has shortened to [14.5].

Lingfield's Derby Trial lost much of its import when Derby second favourite Curtain Call ([7.8]) wasn't risked on the drying ground, though after reportedly paying £3.75m for the colt over the winter that was very much his connections' prerogative.

Curtain Call's dismissal of just two rivals on his Nottingham return leaves some room to doubt his substance (the runner-up was a well-beaten fifth in a Newmarket handicap subsequently), but his is a pedigree to die for in terms of the Derby distance - by Sadler's Wells out of a Darshaan half-sister to Hernando - and he'll now get his first chance at the trip on the day itself.

In his absence, Aidan O'Brien's Alessandro Volta ([27.0]) prevailed, but not before he had wandered across much of Surrey, the inevitable conclusion being that Epsom's camber is not the place for him.

The trial performance that did make watchers sit up was that of Casual Conquest in Sunday's Derrinstown Stud Stakes at Leopardstown. Dermot Weld's colt showed Ballydoyle hype-horse Washington Irving to have feet of clay in storming to a six-length win, only for post-race debrief to confirm certain Irish trainers are not in thrall to the Epsom classic. Casual Conquest's back price of [15.5] would halve if plans change.

So it is 'as you were' then, with Henry Cecil's unbeaten Twice Over virtually unmoved at the head of the betting at [4.8] ahead of his mock exam in York's Dante Stakes. This Group 2 has become the No. 1 trial in recent times, the winner going on to Epsom glory in three of the last four years, and the jigsaw will look more complete after Thursday's renewal.

Twice Over is reported to be 'working the house down' in preparation, a comment that sounds unequivocally positive, you might think. However, the more cynical might deduce Twice Over is galloping more like a miler than a 12-furlong horse, leaving the stamina doubts up in the air.

Twice Over faces five opponents on the Knavesmire. John Gosden's Centennial ([15.5]) made all in last month's Sandown Classic Trial but has yet to get the pulses racing at Timeform House judged by a rating of 108, pedestrian compared to Twice Over's 122p.

Sir Michael Stoute's Tartan Bearer has achieved a good deal less still thus far, but this brother to Golan is evidently held in some regard, as his presence in the Dante field confirms. He trades as short as [15.0] for Epsom.

Godolphin throw two more dice in Young Pretender ([75.0]) and McCartney ([42.0]), and O'Brien sends over the hitherto unconsidered Frozen Fire ([60.0]).

Perhaps of more significance, though, is the absence of Kingdom of Naples ([18.0]), the shortest-priced of his stable's umpteen Derby entries but not seen in public since a winning debut last October. As Henrythenavigator reminded us, though, you write off the might of Ballydoyle at your peril.

Tags: Alessandro Volta, Casual Conquest, Centennial, Curtain Call, Derby Betting, Doctor Fremantle, Epsom Derby, Frozen Fire, Henrythenavigator, McCartney, Tajaaweed, Tartan Bearer, The Derby, Young Pretender