Epsom Betting: What do the Guineas results tell us for the Derby and Oaks?

Events / Simon Rowlands / 04 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Impressive though the wins of Ghanaati and Sea The Stars were, they weren't the only stories to emerge from Guineas weekend with a host of finishers advancing - or in some cases not advancing - their claims for Epsom glory. Simon Rowlands considers the evidence from Newmarket.

"Narrative" is the buzzword of the moment where horseracing is concerned. Apparently, it is what the sport needs, or at least needs more of, in order to make it attractive to the outside world.

Maybe. It is not, however, difficult to tell what the prevailing narrative is in the period between Guineas weekend and Derby and Oaks weekend. It can best be summed up by the questions "will he, won't he?" and "will she, won't she?"

Run in the first place, that is, and stay the trip of the Derby/Oaks if he/she respectively does run at Epsom in the second.

Long gone are the days when it was considered almost obligatory for a three-year-old of significant ability to go on from Newmarket to Epsom. There are plenty of alternatives on offer. And there is a greater sense these days that defeat should be avoided, even a defeat at what proves to have been an unsuitable trip.

So, as the man says, let us consider the evidence...

Which of Sea The Stars, Gan Amhras and Rip Van Winkle (first, third and fourth respectively in the 2000 Guineas) will run in the Derby at Epsom on June 6th , and which of those that run will stay the half-mile longer trip? And which of Ghanaati and Cuis Ghaire (first and second respectively in the 1000 Guineas) will do likewise in the Oaks on the same track the day before?

The participation of Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras seems highly likely judged on connections' post-race comments, but I would not be so convinced about Rip Van Winkle, who is from a stable that has a large number of alternatives. The last-two named are sons of the 2001 Derby winner Galileo, while Sea The Stars is a half-brother to that horse, which some may take as definitive proof that all three will stay.

Not so fast. Sea The Stars is a son of Cape Cross, whereas Galileo is a son of Sadler's Wells. Cape Cross' average winning distance with three-year-old offspring is, according to Timeform Statistical Review, only 8.8 furlongs, Sadler's Wells' is 11.2 furlongs. Under 15% of the former's three-year-old winners in the last four years have come at further than 11 furlongs, whereas 55% of the latter's have.

Some people will doubtless quote the fact that Cape Cross sired an Oaks winner in Ouija Board until they are blue in the face in the coming weeks, but one swallow does not make a summer.

There is a doubt about Sea The Stars' stamina for Epsom, in other words, but not so big a doubt as the one about Rip Van Winkle. The dam's side of the latter's pedigree is made up mostly of sprinter/milers, and I can't see him lasting home, no matter that he has finished off his last two races well.

Gan Amhras is much more likely to thrive at Epsom, as I see it. Although his dam only won at an extended mile, she stayed 10 furlongs, is a daughter of the stamina influence Darshaan and has already produced a winner in France (by Barathea) at 11.5 furlongs. It is, if anything, somewhat surprising that Gan Amhras was capable of running as close as third in a Guineas at just a mile.

Gan Amhras' stable-companion Cuis Ghaire is another Galileo offspring, but she has a preponderance of sprinting/miling blood on her dam's side and was fast enough to win at six furlongs as a juvenile. I expect her to be a miler, through and through.

The prospects of Ghanaati, who had Cuis Ghaire 1½ lengths behind her in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday, are less easy to read. She is a half-sister by Giant's Causeway to winners at between a mile and 1½ miles and should get further than a mile herself, if not necessarily as far as the Oaks trip.

It is, of course, also pertinent to consider the circumstances under which these horses performed at the weekend. Conditions were fast, particularly so by the time the fillies came to race on the Sunday. Ghanaati's lightning-quick time of 1:34.22 is a testament to her ability but also to how firm and speed-favouring the ground had become.

She showed plenty of pace, as well, always prominent and leading two furlongs out. The example of the stoutly bred Cape Verdi, an even more impressive winner of the 1000 in 1998 who started favourite for the Derby but flopped in that race, is just one of many of horses that were very quick but not so versatile.

It needs also to be said that there is a common misconception that, because the final mile of the Derby/Oaks course is easy, the classic trip itself can be lasted by non-stayers.

That is not so other than in extreme circumstances. Standard times show that the first half mile of the Derby/Oaks is the toughest in British Flat racing. If you are in any doubt, go to the start and you will see what I mean.

Many a miler with pretensions to staying middle distances has come unstuck at Epsom, and many more will do in the future.

Personally, I have added Gan Amhras (available at [8.8] on Betfair's ante-post market) to my Derby portfolio, and I'll be siding against Rip Van Winkle, Ghanaati and Cuis Ghaire if their connections decide to take the gamble and they trade at a price that is at all short.

* * *

Congratulations must go to connections of Solwhit for winning the Punchestown Champion Hurdle on Friday. Their horse has now won big races at Aintree and at Punchestown, taking the scalp of the Cheltenham Champion Hurdler Punjabi in the latter.

I wonder how the person who backed Solwhit at 290 ante-post on Betfair for the Cheltenham race feels about connections' strange decision to bypass that contest. Or, rather, I don't: I can reveal that I am gutted. And puzzled.

Oh, well, the horse is [10.5] to back for the 2010 version...