Doncaster St Leger Meeting / Graham Cunningham / 09 September 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

St Leger week moves up a gear at Doncaster this Thursday, with £300,000 on offer for the Weatherbys Insurance Stakes and another hundred grand up for grabs in the DFS Park Hill Stakes. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham casts his eye over the feature events in part two of his daily Donny blog.

2.00

Hello, hello.

When Betfair punters are prepared to take [2.5] for fair amounts over 24 hours before a newcomer makes his debut in a ten grand maiden you can be sure the horse in question has been doing something notable on the gallops.

That is surely the case with Coordinated Cut and the fact that Peter Chapple-Hyam has booked Kieren Fallon for this Montjeu colt adds extra spice to the mix.

Is he a bet at such skinny odds in a field containing a couple who have already shown fair form and several others with big race entries?

Not in my book, he isn't. Indeed, it's possible to argue that the confidence behind Coordinated Cut could make the market for Munsarim. John Dunlop's colt showed plenty of promise in a warm Newmarket maiden on his debut and normal improvement should give him solid win and place claims here.

2.35

The first point to make here is that a true gallop looks highly likely.

Moonquake, Fanjura, Australia Day and Laterly have all thrived from the front and all four can be given a chance on their best form.

The fact that Fallon seems most unlikely to give Alfathaa as much to do as some of his previous partners is interesting, while Dream Lodge looks better than ever since joining Fahey but will need another career best to defy an official mark of 109.

The durable Eastern Aria looks bound to give her running again, but my idea of the best angle here is to oppose Fanjura for several reasons.

First, he's most unlikely to enjoy an uncontested lead; second, he has blossomed under a couple of very skilful Frankie Dettori rides recently and the Italian is aboard Moonquake this time; and third, Fanjura has been hiked a stiff looking 9lb for his narrow win at Sandown.

He looks vulnerable and, with that in mind, I feel a small win lay and a medium place lay coming on.

3.10

Only two of the last ten favourites have won this valuable pot - which suggests that it may not pay to take strict ratings at face value - but there is no getting away from the fact that Taajub's excellent second to the high-class Showcasing in the Gimcrack at York gives him a great chance.

There was plainly no fluke about that performance - as he travelled powerfully from a very early stage - and this slightly longer trip shouldn't be an issue. In short, it's all a question of price. And to my mind he ought to be about a [3.3] chance.

Any number of possible candidates could pick up the pieces if the favourite disappoints. Lowdown and stablemate Take Ten are thriving on racing and looks sure to show up well, while Spying has impressed in winning two from two in the north and is another capable of going well at a fair price.

3.45

The problem here lies in trying to unravel some complex lines of form from Britain, France and Ireland.

I'm lukewarm on Sevenna, who seemed to revel in softish ground at Goodwood and could struggle to confirm that form with Cassique Lady and Victoria Montoya.

Sesenta refused to be denied in the Ebor off a mark of 94 but has more on her plate here, while Perfect Truth is useful but probably lacks the speed to win a Group 2 under these conditions.

All of which leaves one Aga Khan filly from Ireland and another from France. The Irish version is Tanoura, who continued her progression with a gutsy Galtres Stakes success at York.

She's sure to go close again over this longer trip, but I'm tempted to take a chance with the consistent Shemima. Granted, fast ground is an unknown factor for this filly, but her form in similar company in France gives her a solid chance and Soumillon will be desperate to impress in the light of his impending departure from the job as first jockey to the Aga.

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