Doncaster St Leger Meeting / Geoffrey Riddle / 11 September 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet View Market

Geoffrey Riddle is in the hot seat for the third day of Doncaster's St Leger meeting to talk you through all the action on and off the track, and to bring you all the chatter from Town Moor. E-mail him your thoughts, questions and tips on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5.10pm
Well guys, it's been a very profitable punting day. For those of you who had a bit more gumption that I did, you probably made a packet. I know from the e-mails there were those of you out there who did. By the way, Aaron from Leicester was the first to e-mail in that Richard Fahey's winner earlier this week was Total Impact. Well done. I can't offer you anything I'm afraid.

Today has been a far more sophisticated affair than yesterday's Ladies' Day carnage. Despite the sun still shining and alcohol still running freely, the event has been far more salubrious, with fewer people staggering around and eating hamburgers as if their lives depended on it. Even the women in the County stand were eating their Cornish pasties from a white paper bag with a napkin. Things are looking up.

Like moving day in any golf tournament, we've got our punting war chests ready for tomorrow's St Leger. All week the Racing Post ticker has indicated Godolphin's Kite Wood has been the most heavily-backed colt in the race. And quite rightly, too. Let's see if the boys in royal blue can win their first British Classic since Rule Of Law triumphed here in 2004. See you all tomorrow.

4.55pm
1: Dangerous Midge
2: Lady Artemisa
3: Full Speed
Well the race started off well, and Prince of Johanne flew at the finish, but it looked like jockey Ryan Moore gave the leaders too much rope. It is has been very difficult all week to come from so far back. Dangerous Midge was better placed by jockey Martin Dwyer and won well.

4.45pm
There could be three front-runners in this field of 12 for the lucky last. Geneva Geyser and Alcade are confirmed, while Muraweg may also help force the pace.

After Cosmic Sun's third in the Mallard Stakes earlier on the card, it is easy to see why Thin Red Line has attracted support. The Ed Dunlop runner finished ahead of Cosmic Sun in second behind Quai D'Orsay at Haydock in July.

But with such a fierce pace likely, the hold-up horse, Prince Of Johanne looks difficult to discount. The three-year-old son of Johannesburg has had just four racecourse starts and sits on the cusp of a four-timer. His last two races have worked out very well, and he should have this run to suit. The money is down, too. He was backed at [7.4], but is now [4.2].

4.25pm result:
1: Al Zir
2: Treadwell
There wasn't any doubt about that at any point really was there? That's what you call investing. I should really take my betting more seriously to be honest, because that was a monster wager, and I was sweating for the whole 1m25.27secs it took for the Godolphin horse to sweep his rivals away.

Al Zir will make one more appearance this year before Godolphin pack him off to Dubai for the Winter. It's likely to be in the Racing Post Trophy back here over a mile, but trainer Saeed Bin Suroor was just as happy to campaign him over seven furlongs.

The winner is a huge colt, but Bin Suroor said he has a long way to go before he is the finsihed article. He said: "He is a very weak colt just now. He is growing all the time though. We need to get one more race into him before the end of the season, and preferrably with more runners in it!"

Pollenator is around 20-1 for next year's 1,000 Guineas with the high street layers after her victory over Seta in the May Hill. She's not even quoted on Betfair, which could be a good thing, because Harry Herbert, spokesman for owners Royal Ascot Racing Club, doesn't think she'll race at HQ.
"We will possibly look at a Guineas preparation. Ryan Moore said that over the mile here, the further she went the better she went. Certainly the Oaks has to be the target so we'll see how she goes through the winter."
Herbert revealed that the daughter of the Derby-winning Motivator is not the most robust filly, but she is definitely on the upward curve. He said: "She has done nothing but improve. After she won at Newmarket last time, we decided to come here. She was still very green, but when the gap closed up, she was experienced enough to go through it.
"We didn't enter her in the Fillies' Mile so that will probably be that for this year."

4.15pm
Those of you who got caught up in the Seta hype, do not despair. Her trainer, Luca Cumani, was surprisingly satisfied at his filly's performance in the May Hill.

"You are never surprised with horses and women,he said. "I think we learned something today because we rode her very confidently. Passing the three marker she accelerated brilliantly, but she got a bit weak in the last furlong.

"I think that we learned that she is a little bit weak for now and that she needs a little bit more restraint."

Cumani added that we should be seeing Seta once again this season. "We may run her again, if she's alright. We'll see."

4.05pm
Legendary punter, and now racehorse owner, Harry Findlay is always happy to bet odds-on.

His mantra is that if you think something should be 1-5, and you're getting 1-3, you are getting value. I sometimes find it difficult to work this out in big fields, but in a race like this Conditions Stakes, it is almost impossible to ignore the value on offer about Al Zir.

It is easy to see why the Godolphin charge, who cost an eye-watering $1.6m at the sales, has been backed in from [1.48] into [1.39]. It still looks a giveaway.

Although Treadwell has some good bits of form to his name, he comes from the Jamie Osborne yard, which, as I have kept hammering on about, is not in good form. So has Al Zir got a better chance than his odds imply at 71%. I think so.

3.50pm result:
1: Brave Prospector
2: Castles In the Air
3: Jimmy Styles
Well delirious is not a word I would use when you've only won on a saver bet, but when you've backed a winner at [22.0], things are pretty sweet.

It was a funny old race though because the pace-setter, Celtic Sultan, was steered straight to the stand's rail under Micky Fenton. It cost the race a lot of momentum, and although it's not an excuse, Jimmy Styles looked like he wanted a faster pace. It robbed me of the forecast, unfortunately.

3.30pm
I think Jimmy Styles is a shoo-in here. There. I've said it. I had drawn up a short-list of likely candidates, but one by one they have fallen by the wayside this afternoon.

Drawnfromthepast beat Kingsgate Native in his pomp, but hails from the out-of-form Jamie Osborne yard. Excusez Moi simply can't be trusted, and remains around 9lbs above his previous winning mark in handicap company and Musaalem was beaten fair and square by Jimmy Styles at Newmarket in May

I fear Pearly Wey, because he is from the same yard as Jimmy Styles, the in-from Clive Cox stable. Also, Brave Prospector looks seriously over-priced. Don't forget the Seagull tipped the four-year-old for the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood last month in his Pricewise column, where he finished a game seventh through the Sussex mist. It was a brave call to drop him back to 5½ furlongs next time out, and this step up in trip should suit him. At [22.0] he looks worthy saver material.

3.15pm result
1: Pollenator
2: Hibaayeb
Boom! Apparently Seta means 'mushroom' in Spanish. Which is good because this is pretty much what has happened to her chances for next year's 1,000 Guineas. Gehhdit?

She was massively over-hyped, but unfortunately I didn't make any money out of her! How frustrating. To be fair, Seta looked like she needed much softer going as she tried in vain to get her toe in.

As she ranged up into the lead her price plummeted, with punters expecting the acceleration she showed at Newmarket. She traded for over £2,000 at [1.03]. Don't you just love fastest fingers first?

3.05pm:
Seta opened up at 8-15 on course. I'm pretty sure that Seta is not as good as everyone thinks, and it is interesting to note that no-one seems to be taking the slightest bit of notice of her trainer, Luca Cumani.

The smooth Italian said last night: "Seta is bred to appreciate the step up in trip, but she has been over-hyped. She only won an ordinary maiden and it is ludicrous she is such a short price for next year's Guineas."

You would have to agree with him. There is probably nothing special in this race to beat her, which means she'll be cut further for next year's Classic if she wins this. Those punters who take a long-term view of things could then get in and lay her, especially when you consider that no winner of this in the last ten years has triumphed at Newmarket in the first week in May.

Timeform Graham has highlighted that both Gallic Star and Virginia Hall are rated just a 1lbs off Seta, but they have seen far more racecourse action than the favourite and she is sure to improve.

2.40pm result - Doncaster Cup:
1: Askar Thau
2: Darley Sun
Fortune favoured the brave there. Geordieland went as short as [1.11] in the place market in-running, and even the sublime skills of Mick Kinane could not galvanise the grey beyond the front two. That's paid for my trip home tonight.

Jamie Osborne was smoking like a chimney in the parade ring throughout the race.
When push came to shove though, I don't think I've seen someone smoke so quickly. It was frightening.

Both Darley Sun and Cosmic Sun failed to shine this afternoon. With Beatle-mania sweeping the land at the weekend, I still think it is fair to play this. Enjoy it. At least both were placed...

2.30pm
Geordieland's last two wins have come on his first start of the season after a long layoff. Trainer Jamie Osborne has tried to replicate this fallow period by leaving his star stayer off the track for 85 days. Will it be enough?

Jockey Mick Kinane takes the ride off Shane Kelly due to Geordieland's Breeders' Cup targets, which is a tip in itself how strongly Osborne fancies the eight-year-old. Osborne has been telling anyone who will listen how much he thinks of his grey. He told us last night, and he told the Racing Post this morning: "It would appear on what we have seen that we have the best horse, and if he runs anything like up to his best, he should win."

With Osborne's stable in such poor form, you would have thought he might have said somewhere that the horse is in good form, etc...? Wouldn't you? Geordieland's price is solid though, and hans't really budged. He's [2.68] now.

2.05pm result:
1: Nanton
2: Manyriverstocross
3: Cosmic Sun
How well did Record Breaker look to be going two furlongs out, eh? Royston French seemed to be cruising as his mount took the lead without so much as a sweat breaking out. And then it all went pear-shaped. Daniel Tudhope galvanised Nanton, who ran so well in the Ebor last month, and Manyriverstocross took second.

Record Breaker was matched in-running at [1.23], while some lucky/unlucky traders were matched at [16.5] on the winner.

I haven't quite finished with Sand Vixen yet by the way. Looking at the records, the Godolphin runner beat blitzed the track record by 0.36secs, which would be remarkable enough in itself. But the record here was held by Fleeting Spirit, who subsequently won the Temple Stakes and the July Cup.

Backers of Misheer in the first have some consolation. It has emerged that jockey Neil Callan had problems on the way down to the start. "The saddle slipped on the filly and went up her neck," revealed Clive Brittain, her trainer. "Neil was at her all the way during the race and it didn't suit her. She needs further," he added.

2.05pm
NEWSFLASH:
Anyone considering coming to the St Leger meeting tomorrow should be wary that the entire programme has changed in the last few minutes. Channel 4 have requested that the race times be amended.
The first race, the Champagne Stakes, now kicks off tomorrow's action at 1.55pm. the last race of the day is at 5.15pm, which gives me some spare time to get away to my train...

1.35pm result:
1: Sand Vixen
2: Bould Mover
3: Mister Manannan
Well Ken Pitterson got that spot on didn't he? Misheer didn't look good, Sand Vixen did was his pre-race synopsis, and so it proved. Timeform Graham's assessment wasn't too shabby either.

Sand Vixen broke the track record which highlights her considerable ability, but also the state of the going. It's good to firm out there, and the sun is baking the turf right now. Simon Crisford had no hesitation in naming the Cheveley Park as Sand Vixen's next assignment.

Crisford also said that the going would not prevent Kite Wood from running in tomorrow's St Leger. "The going is safe, so we have no hesitations in running him," said Godolphin's racing manager. "He prefers softer conditions, that's all. I'm not saying that he isn't going to win. He's in excellent form. I'm just saying that if he does win, he would have won it a lot better than he did." I think we know what you mean there Simon.

Crisford also suggested that Al Zir, who runs later this afternoon, was ready. "Al Zir is a big weak colt, which is why we decided to run him in the Conditions Stakes and not the Champagne Stakes. That said, he can use this as a stepping stone to better things."

1.25pm
The experts are out to get hot favourite Misheer in the first. Graham from Timeform said: "On our ratings we've got Misheer well clear of the field, and she was around 10lbs better when she won over six furlongs last time out. But her trainer, Clive Brittain, intimated that she might go for the Moyglare over seven furlongs after that win. I think she might struggle to drop back to five furlongs today to be honest."

Paddock judge for the Racing Post weekender, Ken Pitterson, came from a different angle. He said: "She looks dull in her coat. She doesn't have the same sheen that she had when she won the Cherry Hinton last time out."

Only Superstar Leo and Wunders Dream have defied a penalty in this contest over the last decade, which makes Misheer's task look all the more daunting. And to think, I thought she was unbeatable before I spoke to those two.

Pitterson's pick of the paddock was Sand Vixen, but Frankie Dettori wasn't particularly talking up his mount's chances, either. "Whether she is good enough, I don't know," said the bubbly Italian. "It's a tough race, we'll see." Hardly a ringing endorsment then.

1.05pm
Strong opinions are what fuel betting, and there are some people with a seemingly crystallized view of the Mallard Stakes. Most of the on-course layers have reported strong support for Cosmic Sun in the 2.05pm handicap.

Trainer Richard Fahey has already had a winner here at Town Moor this week (e-mail me which one the horses's name and the first one gets a ...er... a hearty congratulations: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com) and the money is down for his three-year-old.

There was £100 laid at [6.2] on Cosmic Sun, but the gelding now trades at [4.3]. There has been £94,000 matched on him, out of the total £160,000 wagered so far on the race. Remember that nearly 80% of trade happens within 20 minutes of the off time though.

From the 80 runners to have contested this race in the last decade, only 27 of them have been from the Classic generation. Of those 27 runners, seven won, and six were placed. It's a beguiling way of profiling this race, and from those stats alone, Cosmic Sun must have a hell of a chance.

The wags are out in force, and I don't mean Coleen and Cheryl, either. Every press wit in the room is trying to come up with gags about the Mallard Stakes. There's the:"I'm ducking tipping on the Mallard" favourite that most people seem to think they have copyright to. Then there's the: "I've been excited about the Mallard Stakes since I had my Duck a L'Orange last night."

I think the latter is the best, if a little dreary, but it simply is not credible. Given my experience of Doncaster over the years, you'd be heard pressed to get a dish as sophisticated as that anywhere in the city...

12.45pm
I've been sifting through what Nick Luck said earlier over a steaming bowl of asparagus soup. I know it's not what you want on a brilliant blue sky day, but it's pretty comforting all the same. Anyway, Luck hasn't dissuaded me from getting Geordieland beat. Jamie Osborne's stable is in shocking form. The former jump jockey hasn't sent out a winner for 79 days. He's had 28 runners in that time frame. That doesn't speak volumes about the enigmatic grey's chances does it?

Ok, Darley Sun may not be 10 lengths better than Alanbrooke in general terms, but Ascot's newly-laid track has similar characteristics to Doncaster, and that sort of performance might be improved upon here.

Also, there's the quite significant factor of the weight-for-age allowance. Darley Sun gets a whopping 14lbs for being born of the Classic generation, and a further 3lbs for Geordieland's Group 2 success earlier this season. Throw in Askar Thau's probable improvement, and the wonderful form of his trainer, Marcus Tregoning (seven wins from just 23 runners in the last fortnight), and it's easy to oppose Geordieland at [2.66], without even mentioning his oft-displayed reluctance to cross the line first.

12.20pm
Nick Luck, the Racing UK broadcaster, has a share in Hawk Mountain, who lines up in the Mallard Stakes (2.05pm). Hawk Mountain finished fourth behind Swingkeel at York last month over 2m½f, but has won twice here over today's distance of 1m6½f.

Luck has backed his four-year-old in both of those successes this season, although interestingly, he hasn't invested this afternoon. "I'll dive in each-way if it drifts out," said Luck, who can't use work as an excuse for not betting because he isn't on air this afternoon.

"He's in good form but it really depends if he can take these better horses in his stride, but I don't think I'll back him."

I've been thinking of laying Geordieland in the big race this afternoon, the Doncaster Cup, but Luck was not so sure. He said: "It's a brave move. Geordieland is quite clearly the best horse in the race. Jamie Osborne is very bullish about his chances, too.

"What have you got running for you? I don't think Darley Sun is really ten lengths better than Alanbrooke, I think that Ascot run was a freak performance. That tends to happen there. I'm not sure if Askar Thau is good enough, either."

Noon:
Is it afternoon or morning at midday? Good midday to you all from another beautiful afternoon at Doncaster for the third day of the St Leger meeting. All the detritus of Ladies' Day has been swept away, including the fact that, other than Fantasia, I didn't win a bean here yesterday. A fresh start, and what a day's racing we have in store this afternoon.

The word you need to bear in mind here on Town Moor today is 'precocity'. The Flying Childers (1.35pm), the May Hill (3.15pm) and the Conditions Stakes at 4.25pm all feature juveniles. What's more, the three-year-olds Cosmic Sun and Darley Sun represent the Classic generation in the Mallard Stakes and the Doncaster Cup respectively, each trying to knock off the older generation.

Owner Lawrie Inman showed yesterday that you don't have to have experience behind you to be successful, something that we may find rings true throughout today's action.

Tags: Doncaster Races, Geoffrey Riddle, horseracing betting, horseracing tips, Racing Live Blog, St Leger Live Blog, The St Leger Stakes