Doncaster Betting: Charm School can keep Gosden's early season form up

Events / Robin Keck / 27 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Robin Keck blogged for us throughout Cheltenham and now he's back with an eye on Saturday's Flat racing season-opener at Doncaster.

I can't imagine what I've done to upset Betfair but I've had the call up to provide some guidance through Saturday's card at Doncaster. It's a relatively new track with uncertain draw bias, seasonal or career debutants in abundance and ground that may be good to firm or good to soft by the first race!

Any angle I've been relying on to oppose or back horses perceived to be 'well in', unexposed at the trip blah blah are a little redundant when you open the Racing Post and look at the cavalry charge of two-year-olds in the Brocklesby. It's like virtual racing with real horses (work that one out) and my clearest thought is that I don't have a clear thought.

I keep reading that the race provides useful pointers for the rest of the season. How exactly? Saxford came ninth last year and turned out to be very good while Sally's Dilemma won and turned out to be...well...not very good.

Many of the past winners have struggled for the rest of their two-year-old seasons and the logical conclusion is those horses that are fit to run very well on their debut will often go backwards from there. So there it is - just write down the name of the winner and lay it for the rest of the season.

If you must play, I read an excellent column by my fellow betfair columnist Simon Rowlands indicating that the market did not quite factor in the better strike rate of the older two-year-olds born in Jan/Feb so perhaps have a bit of forecast fun with the oldest three.

Using Banking Analysts as a guide for a sound strategy might seem counter-intuitive but I'd encourage use of their 'top down' approach for the rest of the Doncaster card and all your early season punting. Rather than analysing a specific company, many financial analysts will firstly look at the bigger macro picture (e.g. company's sector/geographical exposure) on the basis that if you're an American sub-prime lender the company will struggle regardless of the quality of the firm's particular history. Equally, before I look into a horse's ability and its preference for ground and trip I'm currently more focused on which trainers are in form and whether they are proven at getting horses fit enough to run well on their seasonal debut. Most of Aidan O'Brien's horses, for example, can not be supported early season as he simply doesn't seem interested (wisely in my view) in getting them ready to strike until late spring/early summer.

Today we need a winner though and I do love the stable form of John Gosden, who has had seven of his last eight horses at least placed. I particularly like Charm School's chances in The Lincoln and he ended last season looking every bit a potential group performer.

The return to a mile will suit him after finishing strongly over seven furlongs on his seasonal sign off although I'd love one more shower to keep 'firm' out of the going description. Fill your boots with this at [10.5] in the win market.

Many eyes will be on Expresso Star after he supposedly scorched the turf on his recent gallop but I'm wary of this type of news and it often seems to be over factored into the price - Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret being a recent example who was beaten 56 lengths in 16th in this years Cheltenham bumper after an apparently amazing gallop a week or so before the festival.

Expresso could outclass them but this is a race to instinctively pose a [5.2] priced horse who may not love the good ground and it's anybody's guess whether he'll be near the pace or on the right side of the course.

Historically, Doncaster has suited low drawn horses over a mile, although the track officials are keen to argue that this bias has disappeared since the new track was laid. I'm inclined to believe that view, but let's sit out the earlier Spring Mile and just watch the bigger picture. Our silver medal aspiration is to see a clear draw bias but the gold medal is for those who find a misleading draw bias. If you believe one side was favoured purely due to the pace of the race on that side then the result may mislead the market to over-back the same side in the Lincoln. It would be a brave call to buck the market but you may get a very sexy forecast return if you successfully perm the most extreme drawn horses on the opposite side to the earlier race.

Elite Land is a serious bet in the last as he's improved significantly after moving to Brian Ellison's stable just before Christmas. His 212 form figures over hurdles since then look good on paper, but the way he travelled in the third race at Huntingdon before he fluffed the last two hurdles give me great encouragement that he's ready to strike on the flat. This is by far the best betting opportunity of the day and I'll be going in all guns blazing.

Hopefully someone reading this will disagree and take me on. Good luck to everyone for today (except Elite's layers) and the whole season.