Derby and Guineas Betting: A handful of French fancies for Betfair backers

Events / La Casaque Noire / 17 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

La Casaque Noire has some early Chrimbo presents for ante-post punters in the form of three French contenders...

Seeing that Christmas is just around the corner, I feel it only fair to give my readers an early Xmas present, being in the form of a back-pocket "winter warmer", or in layman's terms, an ante-post bet for next year.

My first recommendation is for the 1000 Guineas. No, I am not putting up the obvious Natagora, but rather the unbeaten Zarkava. The daughter of Zamindar looked something very special when winning the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day, and with a rather weak feel to the field, could still represent decent value at [12.0]. She might stay the Oaks trip too, but I'd much rather be on for the earlier Classic and wait and see.

If you look at the betting for the Epsom Classic, it's basically a list of 2000 Guinea hopefuls that might stay the mile and a half. However, my experience tells me that so far in advance of the race, it's much safer to back a guaranteed stayer.

Unusually, France has two intended runners in the Blue Riband. OK, it's still a long way off, but nice to know that's where your bet is headed, all being well in six months time, rather than just guessing or hoping.

My first selection is Thewayyouare, trained by Andre Fabre and owned by Irish building magnate Sean Mulryan. The Kingmambo colt is a half-brother to Champion filly Peeping Fawn, a backward sort who made massive improvement throughout last season. Thewayyouare has already shown this trait, being beaten into seventh on his debut and then hardly impressive when breaking his duck in a poor maiden at Deauville. However, there was no arguing with his impressive final run - a decisive win in the Group One Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He's currently available at [20.0], still worth a bet, but hardly great value.

For those looking at longer odds, I suggest a close look at the other intended raider, Full Of Gold. He can be backed at [55.0], a decent price for a decisive Group One winner who can only improve. Being 17 hands high, anything he did at two was going to be a bonus, so winning his Group One so easily was a massive bonus. That was over a mile and a quarter so I have no worries about the Epsom trip.

A detailed look at his pedigree also gives rock-solid re-enforcement of this belief, his dam having got winning jumpers! I love everything about this horse - not just is he gorgeous looking, but beautifully balanced for a big horse. His high cruising speed comes coupled with a decent turn of foot, something that should stand him in good stead on Derby day.

The Head family have been desperate to win this race since Freddie steered Lyphard into the funfair at Tattenham Corner some 35 years ago. So with sister Criquette training and father Alec owning, it's all systems go!