Chester Betting: Follow the draw bias at the May Meeting

Events / Wayne Bailey / 05 May 2009 / 3 Comments

The three-day May festival is about to get under way where Downhiller, Amerigo and Daraahem are all vying for favouritism in the Chester Cup. Meanwhile, it can still prove lucrative to follow horses drawn-low in sprints writes Wayne Bailey...

I can't write about Chester without mentioning the draw bias. Yes, yes, it's one of the most famous draw stats known to racing fans, and I'm sure most readers will be aware that a low draw in sprints is a massive advantage here - but (and this still amazes me) the odds available in the past few years still haven't adjusted enough to make following the low numbers unprofitable.

Chester is a very sharp left-handed course and has the shortest circuit in Britain, so in races under seven furlongs, it's almost impossible to win from a highly drawn stall. You can study the form until the cows come home, but save yourself the time and energy by simply backing horses drawn in stalls one and two in races under 7f. Last year, the bias got a lot of attention in the media and I was sure the edge would disappear - but following the low draw proved lucrative yet again in 2008 so I'm going to go with the flow until the profit and loss figures tell me to do otherwise.

Indeed since 2003, had you backed every horse from stall one and two in races under 7f at the course, you would have had 67 winners from 269 races (24.91%) and shown a profit of over £780 to £10 stakes to traditional SP.

The strike-rate is particularly impressive when you consider the fact that you will be placing two bets in each race, so naturally, you will have at least one loser each time. I haven't checked this out yet, but I'm pretty certain the return would be significantly higher to Betfair SP.

Amazingly, 2008 was one of the most profitable years in some time, despite plenty of attention being given to the draw on TV and elsewhere. Will it prove profitable in 2009? We can't say for sure, but I'll certainly take my chances.

* * *

On to the Chester Cup, a race of just over 2m2f; so no draw bias in this one!

This race can be tricky and has gone to large priced outsiders in the past few years, so below are my three against the field that may be worth considering in the win and place markets. At the time of writing (Monday night), the final line-up is still unclear so I'm hoping this still proves relevant come Wednesday!

Ajaan - currently priced at [25.0]
I quite like this horse. He's one of those versatile Henry Cecil sorts but unfortunately his form tailed off towards the end of last season. I'm hoping that the word from my mole in Newmarket is correct, and that he's wintered well. He's usually best on right-handed courses to that's a slight worry but I don't think we've seen the last of him yet and his price looks a little too high.

Carte Diamond - currently priced at [22.0]
Another noteworthy entry at a high price, this horse has proved his worth over jumps and on the level. Unfortunately, he missed most of 2006 and 2007 due to injury, but he came back reasonably strong and a bold run can be expected.

Dunaskin - currently priced at [70.0]
It seems like this horse has been around forever, and when I checked his record, it appears that he has! He's had plenty of career runs to date with no less than 67 races under the belt thus far. Older horses don't do so well in this race historically so that's a little worry, but once again he's a useful sort that seems overpriced in the early markets.

I'll be having a small win and place bet on each of the above, but before I sign off, I just want to add a quick note for the future...

If you do manage to pick the Chester Cup winner, don't get too carried away when it runs next-time-out. Often, we can be drawn to a horse that we've won a few quid on before, but I've just checked the ten year trends and not a single Chester Cup winner was successful on their next outing during that period - so be warned!

Best of luck with your Chester betting.

Comments (3)

1. Robin Keck | 06 May 2009

   I share your amazement that the low draw is still profitable but thanks for the stats on this. One question - are you sure there is no draw bias over 2m 2f? It seems ridiculous but it's such a tight circle that making up ground will never be easy ...Robin
   

2. Wayne Bailey | 06 May 2009

   Hi Robin - it's probably a bold assumption on my part, but personally I don't believe that the draw has a significant effect over long distances in general. I'm open to correction on that however.

   I've just checked the ten year stats for that course at that distance and the sample is too small to come to any meaningful conclusions but here's how it breaks down:

   Draw...Wins...Runs

   1.......1.......7
   2.......2.......8
   3.......0.......8
   4.......1.......7
   5.......0.......7
   6.......1.......7
   7.......0.......5
   8.......0.......7
   9.......0.......7
   10......0.......6
   11......1.......6
   12......0.......5
   13......0.......5
   14......0.......6
   15......1.......6
   16......1.......6
   17......0.......5
   18......0.......4
   

3. Wayne Bailey | 09 May 2009

   Results of backing stall one and two at Chester in May 2009 in races under 7f:

   Wed, 1.45 - Won by stall 5 (2pt loss on race)
   Wed, 3.15 - Won by stall 4 (2pt loss on race)

   Thur, 4.00 - Won by stall 3 (2pt loss on race)
   Thur, 4.35 - Won by stall 1 at 5.26 (3.26pt profit on race)

   Fri, 3.15 - Won by stall 1 at 5.0 (3pt profit on race)

   Total profit: A whopping 0.26 points :-)