Cheltenham Betting / Timeform / 12 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Statistics say no Gold Cup winning horse has ever regained the trophy after a loss, yet Kauto Star trades around [3.0] to do just that. But what do Timeform make of his chances...?

Memories of Michael Dickinson's 'Famous Five' in 1983 came flooding back 12 months ago as Paul Nicholls' runners filled the first three places in the most eagerly anticipated Gold Cup of modern times.

If the betting throughout the winter is anything to go by, punters believe a repeat is on the cards, not surprising given jump racing's showpiece is well known as a race for specialists, though the favourite Kauto Star will have to overcome a remarkable trend that's seen no Gold Cup winner ever regain the trophy.

His position at the head of the market is entirely justified, however. He is an exceptional chaser who aside from his success in this in 2007 has also won three King Georges and a whole host of other Grade 1s. When he blew away the field at Kempton on Boxing Day he silenced the doubters who had suggested he was on the decline and he appeals as much the solid proposition in the race.

The outlook appears much brighter for Denman following positive reports from the gallops last week. Having been off the track with a reported heart problem since his emphatic success in this 12 months ago, the nine-year-old had looked a shadow of his former self on his return when beaten 23 lengths by Madison du Berlais in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton. It's clearly far too soon to be writing him off just yet, though, his unbeaten 2007/8 campaign still fresh in the mind.

Neptune Collonges followed his good third to Denman and Kauto Star in this last year with victory in the Punchestown equivalent the following month. He's raced just twice this year, again across the Irish Sea on both occasions, falling two out when still holding a good chance in the Lexus at Leopardstown before winning the Hennessy there in February.

Christian Williams takes the ride and a win would cap off a remarkable couple of years for the jockey, who has missed the last two Festivals through injury having at one stage looked to have ridden for the last time.

Exotic Dancer has been forced to live in the shadow of Kauto Star for the last few seasons but he arrives for his third crack at the Gold Cup, having finally gained a deserved first Grade 1 success in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown. His good record at Cheltenham will count for plenty in this and he holds better claims of reaching the frame than most.

The game and reliable Madison du Berlais has been one of the revelations of the season, winning the Hennessy at Newbury and Levy Board Chase at Kempton having been fitted with cheekpieces. He's never won round Cheltenham, however, and seems likely to give his running once more without being good enough.

The same can be said for Barbers Shop, a runner for the Queen at the Festival, who needs to improve a good deal more to get involved, and looks no value at his current price.